4 семестр / Ex_card_2-_2_kurs_-Ifteb_-75
.pdf2 курс экзамен ИФТЭБ _75_2021 Examination Card №2
Read the text then summarize it using your own words.
-Summary should contain only the main ideas of the original text.
-Summary should be concise, accurate and objective.
As a conclusion express your own view on the subject, discussed in the article (5-7 sentences). You should talk for 3-5 minutes. You now have 20 minutes to prepare.
Text
Japan’s jobless rate seen up, Tokyo CPI far below BOJ’s inflation goal: Reuters poll
By Tetsushi Kajimoto Tokyo (Reuters)
Japan’s unemployment rate probably inched up in April, a Reuters poll found, in the latest sign of a slight deterioration in the job market as the coronavirus pandemic hits the labour-intensive service sector.
Other data next week is expected to show the Tokyo-area consumer price index (CPI) fell again in May as cuts in mobile phone fees by major carriers added to downward pressure on prices, making the central bank’s 2% inflation goal appear even more elusive.
The weak indicators will likely highlight the fragile nature of the country’s economic recovery from a coronavirus-induced slump in the first quarter.
The world’s third-largest economy shrank 5.1% annualised in January-March, dragged down by private consumption that makes up more than half the economy.
Adding to pressure on consumer spending, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is expected to show the jobless rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 2.7% in April, according to a Reuters poll of 18 economists.
“Since the states of emergency were issued in major cities (to curb COVID-19 infections), the employment situation appeared to turn for the worse again among those face-to-face servicesector firms which were forced to suspend business,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
Data by the labour ministry is likely to show the jobs-to-applicants ratio held steady at 1.1 in April, the poll showed, meaning that only about one job was available per job-seeker.
Both labour market indicators are scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. May 28 (2330 GMT May 27).
Separate data from the internal ministry, due out at the same time as the job market indicators, is expected to show Tokyo-area core consumer prices, which exclude perishables but include oil products, fell 0.2% in May from a year earlier, the same pace as the previous month, the poll found.
Market players are closely watching the Tokyo-area Consumer price index (CPI), which is available a month before nationwide figures, as a leading price indicator.
“Core CPI will stay in negative territory for the time being as service consumption remains stagnant due to the state of emergency, despite rising energy prices, while lower cellphone charges helped extend price falls,” Minami said.
The Fed to change its policy guidance?
As the US emerges from the Covid pandemic, the argument that initial inflationary pressures are transient is hard to rebut. Some supply bottlenecks are inevitable as production reacts to meet re-emerging demand. But with the recovery accelerating, the proposition is that these transitory pressures are already becoming more sustainable, and that this may possibly be a consequence of the post-pandemic US economy evolving to operate with a structurally smaller labour force. If this is the case, then a failure to remove the excess stimulus provided to date leaves current Fed policy at risk of simply fuelling an inflationary spiral. It also renders questionable its use of higher unemployment as a tool to bear down on emerging inflationary pressures.
With rising commodity prices providing further evidence of demand outpacing supply, and surveys showing US inflation expectations rising, the suggestion is that the Fed will soon be forced to drop its ‘transitory inflation’ argument and change its policy stance, essentially moving more in line with market thinking. The suggestion is that this shift will be required before year-end.