Добавил:
Опубликованный материал нарушает ваши авторские права? Сообщите нам.
Вуз: Предмет: Файл:

0 Standard / 03. IAEA / NG-T-3.3 preparation_for new NPP project

.pdf
Скачиваний:
0
Добавлен:
07.04.2025
Размер:
5.09 Mб
Скачать

IAEA Nuclear Energy Series

No. NG-T-3.3

Preparation of a

Feasibility Study for

New Nuclear Power

Projects

Technical

Reports

IAEA NUCLEAR ENERGY SERIES PUBLICATIONS

STRUCTURE OF THE IAEA NUCLEAR ENERGY SERIES

Under the terms of Articles III.A and VIII.C of its Statute, the IAEA is authorized to foster the exchange of scientific and technical information on the peaceful uses of atomic energy. The publications in the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series provide information in the areas of nuclear power, nuclear fuel cycle, radioactive waste management and decommissioning, and on general issues that are relevant to all of the above mentioned areas. The structure of the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises three levels: 1 — Basic Principles and Objectives; 2 — Guides; and 3 — Technical Reports.

The Nuclear Energy Basic Principles publication describes the rationale and vision for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

Nuclear Energy Series Objectives publications explain the expectations to be met in various areas at different stages of implementation.

Nuclear Energy Series Guides provide high level guidance on how to achieve the objectives related to the various topics and areas involving the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

Nuclear Energy Series Technical Reports provide additional, more detailed information on activities related to the various areas dealt with in the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series.

The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series publications are coded as follows: NG — general; NP — nuclear power; NF — nuclear fuel; NW — radioactive waste management and decommissioning. In addition, the publications are available in English on the IAEA Internet site:

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/index.html

For further information, please contact the IAEA at PO Box 100, Vienna International Centre, 1400 Vienna, Austria.

All users of the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series publications are invited to inform the IAEA of experience in their use for the purpose of ensuring that they continue to meet user needs. Information may be provided via the IAEA Internet site, by post, at the address given above, or by email to Official.Mail@iaea.org.

PREPARATION OF A FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR NEW NUCLEAR POWER PROJECTS

The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency:

AFGHANISTAN

GHANA

ALBANIA

GREECE

ALGERIA

GUATEMALA

ANGOLA

HAITI

ARGENTINA

HOLY SEE

ARMENIA

HONDURAS

AUSTRALIA

HUNGARY

AUSTRIA

ICELAND

AZERBAIJAN

INDIA

BAHAMAS

INDONESIA

BAHRAIN

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF

BANGLADESH

IRAQ

BELARUS

IRELAND

BELGIUM

ISRAEL

BELIZE

ITALY

BENIN

JAMAICA

BOLIVIA

JAPAN

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

JORDAN

BOTSWANA

KAZAKHSTAN

BRAZIL

KENYA

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

KOREA, REPUBLIC OF

BULGARIA

KUWAIT

BURKINA FASO

KYRGYZSTAN

BURUNDI

LAO PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC

CAMBODIA

REPUBLIC

CAMEROON

LATVIA

CANADA

LEBANON

CENTRAL AFRICAN

LESOTHO

REPUBLIC

LIBERIA

CHAD

LIBYA

CHILE

LIECHTENSTEIN

CHINA

LITHUANIA

COLOMBIA

LUXEMBOURG

CONGO

MADAGASCAR

COSTA RICA

MALAWI

CÔTE D’IVOIRE

MALAYSIA

CROATIA

MALI

CUBA

MALTA

CYPRUS

MARSHALL ISLANDS

CZECH REPUBLIC

MAURITANIA

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

MAURITIUS

OF THE CONGO

MEXICO

DENMARK

MONACO

DOMINICA

MONGOLIA

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MONTENEGRO

ECUADOR

MOROCCO

EGYPT

MOZAMBIQUE

EL SALVADOR

MYANMAR

ERITREA

NAMIBIA

ESTONIA

NEPAL

ETHIOPIA

NETHERLANDS

FIJI

NEW ZEALAND

FINLAND

NICARAGUA

FRANCE

NIGER

GABON

NIGERIA

GEORGIA

NORWAY

GERMANY

OMAN

PAKISTAN PALAU PANAMA

PAPUA NEW GUINEA PARAGUAY

PERU PHILIPPINES POLAND PORTUGAL QATAR

REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA ROMANIA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION RWANDA

SAN MARINO

SAUDI ARABIA SENEGAL SERBIA SEYCHELLES SIERRA LEONE SINGAPORE SLOVAKIA SLOVENIA SOUTH AFRICA SPAIN

SRI LANKA SUDAN SWAZILAND SWEDEN SWITZERLAND

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC TAJIKISTAN

THAILAND

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

TOGO

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TUNISIA

TURKEY

UGANDA

UKRAINE

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES UNITED KINGDOM OF

GREAT BRITAIN AND

NORTHERN IRELAND UNITED REPUBLIC

OF TANZANIA

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA URUGUAY

UZBEKISTAN

VENEZUELA VIET NAM YEMEN ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE

The Agency’s Statute was approved on 23 October 1956 by the Conference on the Statute of the IAEA held at United Nations Headquarters, New York; it entered into force on 29 July 1957. The Headquarters of the Agency are situated in Vienna. Its principal objective is “to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’.

IAEA NUCLEAR ENERGY SERIES No. NG-T-3.3

PREPARATION OF A FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR NEW NUCLEAR POWER PROJECTS

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY

VIENNA, 2014

COPYRIGHT NOTICE

All IAEA scientific and technical publications are protected by the terms of the Universal Copyright Convention as adopted in 1952 (Berne) and as revised in 1972 (Paris). The copyright has since been extended by the World Intellectual Property Organization (Geneva) to include electronic and virtual intellectual property. Permission to use whole or parts of texts contained in IAEA publications in printed or electronic form must be obtained and is usually subject to royalty agreements. Proposals for non-commercial reproductions and translations are welcomed and considered on a case-by-case basis. Enquiries should be addressed to the IAEA Publishing Section at:

Marketing and Sales Unit, Publishing Section International Atomic Energy Agency

Vienna International Centre PO Box 100

1400 Vienna, Austria fax: +43 1 2600 29302 tel.: +43 1 2600 22417

email: sales.publications@iaea.org http://www.iaea.org/books

© IAEA, 2014

Printed by the IAEA in Austria

June 2014

STI/PUB/1633

IAEA Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

Preparation of a feasibility study for new nuclear power plants. — Vienna : International Atomic Energy Agency, 2014.

p. ; 30 cm. — (IAEA nuclear energy series, ISSN 1995–7807 ; no. NG-T-3.3)

STI/PUB/1633

ISBN 978–92–0–145610–6 Includes bibliographical references.

1. Nuclear power plants — Planning. 2. Nuclear energy — Social aspects. 3. Nuclear energy — Economic aspects. 4. Nuclear energy — Environmental aspects. I. International Atomic Energy Agency. II. Series.

IAEAL

14–00908

FOREWORD

One of the IAEA’s statutory objectives is to “seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world.” One way this objective is achieved is through the publication of a range of technical series. Two of these are the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series and the IAEA Safety Standards Series.

According to Article III.A.6 of the IAEA Statute, the safety standards establish “standards of safety for protection of health and minimization of danger to life and property”. The safety standards include the Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides. These standards are written primarily in a regulatory style, and are binding on the IAEA for its own programmes. The principal users are the regulatory bodies in Member States and other national authorities.

The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises reports designed to encourage and assist R&D on, and application of, nuclear energy for peaceful uses. This includes practical examples to be used by owners and operators of utilities in Member States, implementing organizations, academia, and government officials, among others. This information is presented in guides, reports on technology status and advances, and best practices for peaceful uses of nuclear energy based on inputs from international experts. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series complements the IAEA Safety Standards Series.

One of the steps towards establishing a new nuclear power programme or in planning the expansion of an existing nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet is to commission a feasibility study. Such a study assesses, from an overall and comprehensive perspective, all aspects of the energy demand in a specific country or geographical area, in order to place the nuclear power project in its rightful context. To achieve this goal, a feasibility study will have to analyse the country’s industrial infrastructure to take into consideration the prerequisites of a nuclear option, such as the availability and competence of its human resources, its cost impact, its financing prospects, and its social, economic and environmental conditions. These aspects are intrinsically linked, especially in the energy domain. Each energy option, or even each technology within each energy option, in addition to technical and cost aspects, has varying degrees of social and environmental implications that must be included in the analysis.

The feasibility study covers both the preparation work and the scope of the feasibility report itself. An investigation of the energy conditions in the country at the pre-project stage and the planning of the energy sector development needs to be established after conducting an analysis of the structure of the national energy market and of the supply and demand for energy in the country. An important input would be a fresh independent survey of the energy resources, which should be conducted during the preparation phase.

This publication was developed to provide the important technical, economic, financial, regulatory, social and environmental aspects of an NPP programme to Member State authorities contemplating a nuclear power development programme, to allow them to make informed decisions regarding the possible implementation of the project under consideration. The report also attempts to provide guidance to users who are asked to perform a feasibility study in both the technical and process areas. It condenses the experience of individuals involved in previous feasibility study efforts and provides industry best practices in order to maximize the usefulness of the material presented. This report contains guidelines to help plan a correct approach and deliver a competent feasibility study to support the initial implementation of a nuclear power programme; essential details of the conduct of a feasibility study for an NPP; and the elements necessary to build capabilities to both oversee the preparation and correctly develop a sufficiently detailed and defensible feasibility study report in support of the initial implementation of a nuclear power programme.

This publication should assist in obtaining a comprehensive analysis of the introduction of a new nuclear power programme. The work of all contributors to the drafting and the review of this publication is greatly appreciated, and the IAEA wishes to thank the participants for their contributions. The IAEA officers responsible for this publication were K.S. Kang and F. Nuzzo of the Division of Nuclear Power.

EDITORIAL NOTE

This report does not address questions of responsibility, legal or otherwise, for acts or omissions on the part of any person. Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of information contained in this publication, neither the IAEA nor

its Member States assume any responsibility for consequences which may arise from its use.

The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries.

The mention of names of specific companies or products (whether or not indicated as registered) does not imply any intention to infringe proprietary rights, nor should it be construed as an endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA.

The authors are responsible for having obtained the necessary permission for the IAEA to reproduce, translate or use material from sources already protected by copyrights.

Material prepared by authors who are in contractual relation with governments is copyrighted by the IAEA, as publisher, only to the extent permitted by the appropriate national regulations.

The IAEA has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third party Internet web sites referred to in this book and does not guarantee that any content on such web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

CONTENTS

1.

INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . .

. . . . . .

. .

.

.                              

1

 

1.1. Background. . . . . . . . .

. . . . . .

.

.

.                                

1

 

1.2. Objective. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . .

.

.                                  

2

 

1.3.

Scope .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . .

.                                    

2

 

1.4. General description of the contents of a feasibility study.

.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2

 

1.5.

Users.

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . .

.    

                               

3

 

1.6.

Structure of this publication . . . . . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.                  

3

2.

PREREQUISITES OF A FEASIBILITY STUDY . .

. . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.      

3

 

2.1. Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

                               

3

 

2.2. Organization and responsibilities for feasibility study preparation.

. .

. .

.

. . .

.

. .

 

 

 

 

5

 

2.3.

Preparatory steps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.

.                            

6

 

2.4.

Project stakeholders . . . . . . .

. .

. . . . . . .

.        

                 

 

 

 

 

 

7

 

2.5.

Setting goals for the nuclear power project . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.      

7

 

2.6.

Implications of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant . . . . . . . . .

8

3.

CONTENTS OF A FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A NEW NPP.

.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8

 

3.1.

General observations on the contents. . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.            

8

 

3.2. Applicable laws, codes, standards and guides . .

. . .

.

. .

. .

. .

. . .

. .

     

 

 

 

 

 

10

 

3.3.

Electrical system analysis . . .

. .

. . . . . . .

. . .

. .                    

 

 

 

 

 

11

 

 

3.3.1.

Links to other feasibility assessment activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11

 

 

3.3.2.

Electricity demand. . . . . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.                    

12

 

 

3.3.3.

Electricity demand projections. .

. . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.          

13

 

 

3.3.4.

Electricity supply systems . . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.              

13

 

 

3.3.5. Electricity market structure and organization.

. .

. .

. .

. . . .

.

. .

. .

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

14

 

 

3.3.6.

Electricity system expansion planning.

. . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.    

14

 

 

3.3.7.

Project evaluation. .

. . . . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.                    

18

 

3.4.

Unit capacity and system integration . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.            

19

 

 

3.4.1.

Station capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.                      

19

 

 

3.4.2.

Unit capacity. . . . . . .

. .

. . . . . . . .

                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

19

 

 

3.4.3.

Integration in the grid.

.

. . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.                  

20

 

3.5. Site and supporting facilities. .

 

. . . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.                  

21

 

 

3.5.1.

Natural and external events . . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.            

22

 

 

3.5.2. Potential effects of the nuclear facility in the region .

. . . .

. .

.

. .

. .

.

.

 

 

 

 

25

 

 

3.5.3.

Population distribution.

. . . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.                

26

 

 

3.5.4.

Uses of land and water in the region . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.      

26

 

 

3.5.5.

Preliminary site layout and site preparation.

.

.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

26

 

 

3.5.6.

Summary of site characteristics and supporting facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . .

27

 

3.6. NPP technology and fuel cycles .

. . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.                

28

 

 

3.6.1.

Nuclear power technology market surveys . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

. .

29

 

 

3.6.2.

NPP safety and performance assessment. . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.  

30

 

 

3.6.3.

Fuel cycle evaluation and impact assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

33

 

 

3.6.4. Radioactive and conventional waste management.

.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

33

 

 

3.6.5.

Interim waste storage. . . . . . . . . . .

.

.

. .

.

.

.                  

34

 

 

3.6.6.

NPP and fuel cycle technology recommendations.

.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

36

3.7. Environmental impact of the project. .

. . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

 

 

 

       

36

 

3.7.1.

Environmental impact assessment report . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.

.

.

.  

36

 

3.7.2.

Cooling water demand. . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.                

37

 

3.7.3. Environmental protection requirements of the financial institution

. .

. .

.

 

. .

. .

 

 

 

37

 

3.7.4.

Environmental impact assessment .

. . .

. . . . .

. . .

. .

. .

.        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

38

 

3.7.5.

Comparative environmental analysis. . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.

.      

39

 

3.7.6.

Environmental monitoring and protection plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

40

3.8.

Licensing and authorization . . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.                  

40

 

3.8.1. Licensing process and requirements.

. .

. . . . .

. . .

. .

. .

. .

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

42

3.9.

Project implementation approach. . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.              

43

 

3.9.1.

Ownership structure. . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

 

                 

43

 

3.9.2.

Contractual approach. . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.                  

46

 

3.9.3.

Procurement programmes. . . .

. . . .

. .

. . . . .

. .              

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

49

 

3.9.4.

Project schedule. . . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.                      

50

 

3.9.5.

Project management. .

. . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.                  

51

 

3.9.6.

Risk matrix. .

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

 

 

                     

54

 

3.9.7.

Risk management plans. . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.                

55

3.10. National participation . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

                       

55

 

3.10.1. National industry survey. . . . .

. . . . .

. .

. . . . .

               

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

56

 

3.10.2. Establishment of the strategy for national participation .

. .

. .

.

. .

. .

. .

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

57

 

3.10.3.

Localization plan . . . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.                    

58

 

3.10.4. Technology transfer and goals. . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.          

59

3.11. Organization, human resources and training.

.

. . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.

.      

60

 

3.11.1. Construction workforce and logistics.. . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.

.      

60

 

3.11.2. NPP owner organization during construction, commissioning,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

operation and maintenance. .

. . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.              

60

 

3.11.3.

Staffing requirements. . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.                  

61

 

3.11.4.

Education and training requirements. . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.

.      

63

 

3.11.5.

Project cost estimation. . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.                

64

 

3.11.6.

Total capital investment costs.

. . . . .

. .

. . . .

. . .

. .

           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

64

 

3.11.7.

Costing a new build . . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.                  

65

 

3.11.8.

Nuclear fuel cycle costs. . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.                

66

 

3.11.9. Operation and maintenance costs. .

. . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.        

66

3.12. Economic analysis.. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.                          

66

 

3.12.1. Some important issues in economic analysis.

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.

.

.

. .

69

 

3.12.2. Project performance indicators

. . . . .

. .

. . . .

. . .

. .

.          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

70

 

3.12.3. Sensitivity and risk analyses. .

. . . . .

. .

. . . .

. . . .

           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

71

3.13.

Funding and financing

. . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . .

. .

                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

73

 

3.13.1. Technical, financial and economic viability..

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.

.

.

.

74

3.14. Stakeholder communication for transparency . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.

.

 

.    

75

 

3.14.1. Stakeholders. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.                        

75

 

3.14.2. Transparency. .

. . . . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . .

. . . .

. . . . .

.

. .

. .

. .

. . .

.

. .

. .

.

.

. .

. .

.

. . .

. . . .

75

 

3.14.3. Communication . . . . . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.                      

75

 

3.14.4. Stakeholder communication strategies. .

. .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

.

.

.

 

.    

76

3.15. Emergency preparedness and response within the site

. . . . .

.

. .

. .

. .

. .

.

. .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

77

 

3.15.1. Preparedness within the site. .

. . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.            

77

 

3.15.2. Site emergency planning and coordination with off-site emergency response

 

 

 

 

 

 

organizations. .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . .

                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

80

 

3.15.3. Response function requirements for a coordinated response of the on-site and

 

 

 

 

 

 

off-site responders . .

. . . . . . . . .

. .

.

.

.

.

.                    

80

3.16. Cogeneration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.                              

80