Ebooki / SGT-Volume1

Searl: knowledge 1946-1968: Legal: SEARL NO: 013787346: Legal: SEARLE NO: 013787451 – Beware!

Of no rain tomorrow will be 1.0 – 0.7 = 0.3. Searl say that in general, if A stands for occurrence of an event, then its complement, A, represents the non-occurrence of the event. Searl therefore say that the first law of probability can be written as:

P(Ā) = 1 – P(A) or P(A) + P(Ā) = 1.

Searl say in other words, the probability of A not happening is one minus the probability of it happening.

Simple addition law:

Searl say that given that the probabilities of a queue containing 0, 1, 2 and 3 customers are 0.4, 0.3, 0,2 and 0.1 respectively, then:

P(1 or 2 customers in queue) = 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.5

P(less than 3 customers in queue) = P(0 or 1 or 2 in queue) = 0.4 + 0.3 +0.2 = 0.9

Searl say in other words, the probabilities are added. Searl say that this law only applies to mutually exclusive events: events which cannot possibly happen together. Searl say that the four events in this example are said to be exhaustive because the sum of the four probabilities is exactly one: no other events (numbers in the queue) are possible here. Searl say that in general:

P(A or B) – P(A) + P(B) Searl say that when the events, A and B, are independent. A test for statistical independence will be given later in this document. Searl just remember a few pages back he was discussing two-tail test, Searl think that he should give another example to help those who have a task to follow Searl writtens. Searl suggest to use 5% points of t-dsitribion in this example:

V is the number of degrees of freedom: important to understand when we deal with robots:

Alternative hypothesis: The formulation of the population parameter(s) contradicting the null hypothesis. It is crucial to the determination of the critical region of a significance test.

Analysis of variance: A statistical technique, developed to my understanding by Fisher, to quantify and compasre the sources of variation in an experient.

Searl say when the events, A and B, are Independent. Searl will give a test for statistical independence latter.

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Searl: knowledge 1946-1968: Legal: SEARL NO: 013787346: Legal: SEARLE NO: 013787451 – Beware!

Example:

Three fair dice are thrown. Find the probability of obtaining at least one 6.

Solution:

Searl say again, it is simpler to calculate the inverse probability. The complement of at least one 6 is no 6s.

P(not a 6 on a die) = 5/6. Therefore, Searl say P(no 6s on three dice) = 5/6 x 5/6 x 5/6 = 125/216. You may wonder what the hell is going on here. Searl will explain for those who really want to learn: it means 5 x 5 x 5 = 125 and 6 x 6 x 6 = 216. Well now you know that 5/6 do not mean 5 ÷ 6 = 0.8333333 x 0.8333333 x

0.8333333 = 0.5787036 which is not what is meant above. Now we can carry on with the good work, as to why the S.E.G. works or will not work, (by the simple multiplication law). Searl states therefore, P(at least one 6) = 1 – 125/216 = 91/216. Searl say that you way wonder where that 91 came into the picture, Searl will explain: 216 – 125 = 91/216. Searl say: this is a major problem making sure you understand what is meant by their signs.

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Searl: knowledge 1946-1968: Legal: SEARL NO: 013787346: Legal: SEARLE NO: 013787451 – Beware!

Can you give a date to this image?

Searl knows how you have slandered him on the internet and other media. This document shows you Searl interest which covers many subjects. On page 184 Searl presented a question that shows his interest, have you answered it. Well Searl will for you: The period of time was between 3000-350 B. C. Searl says circa 3000 B. C. Babylonians measure time. Pyramid kings. Egypt. 2000-1000 B.C: Code of Hammurabi. Babylonia. Medicine studied in Egypt. Chinese use magnetic compass. Searl wonder if you knew that. Page 185©

Searl: knowledge 1946-1968: Legal: SEARL NO: 013787346: Legal: SEARLE NO: 013787451 – Beware!

Example:

Searl say that a quality control procedure tests all components coming off a production line. Searl say that it was found that 5% of the items are defective. Searl states that the inspection can detect a faulty component with a probability of 98% but, in 10% of cases, will classify a good component as being faulty. Searl ask you to find the proportion of components classified correctly.

TREE DIAGRAMS:

Searl say a simpler diagrammatic approach to the above problem

Is to tree diagram as in Figure P12S:

Can you name this man and what made him famous? Searl Global Technologies will one day need to use this invention for their research work. As Searl will be explaining later.

Figure P12S: A tree diagram:

Searl say that each component can be either be faulty or good and then correctly or incorrectly classified. The probabilities are shown along each branch and add up to one in each of the three pairs. Searl say that the probabilities along each path are first multiplied together to give the probabilities of the four possible compound events. As a check to the arithmetic, these should always add up to one. Searl say that the cases of correct classification are asterisked in the diagram and adding their probabilities together gives the answer to the problem. Reference to question on page 185 relates to 200 B.C. – 1200 A.D. Circa 250 B.C. Then there they were Archimedes studies lever: hydrostatics: Mathematics: Euclid develops plane geometry: Eratosthenes estimates circumference of the earth.

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Searl: knowledge 1946-1968: Legal: SEARL NO: 013787346: Legal: SEARLE NO: 013787451 – Beware!

Searl say although Machine A produces most components, the efficiency has reduced the probability the faulty component from 0.6 a priori to 0.194 a posteriori. The additional information that the component is faulty has produced a change in the assumption that Machine A was the culprit. Similarly:

Morris must expect this kind of work. It all relates to research output.

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