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total liabilities or total capitalization? What would you include in debt—the bank loan, the deferred tax account, the R&R reserve, the unfunded pension liability? Explain the pros and cons of these choices.
2.Take any firm whose financial statements are shown on the Market Insight database (www.mhhe.com/edumarketinsight) and make some plausible forecasts for future growth and the asset base needed to support that growth. Then use a spreadsheet program to develop a five-year financial plan. What financing is needed to support the planned growth? How vulnerable is the company to an error in your forecasts?
C H A P T E R T H I R T Y
S H O R T - T E R M F I N A N C I A L
P L A N N I N G
MOST OF THIS book is devoted to long-term financial decisions such as capital budgeting and the choice of capital structure. Such decisions are called long-term for two reasons. First, they usually involve long-lived assets or liabilities. Second, they are not easily reversed and therefore may commit the firm to a particular course of action for several years.
Short-term financial decisions generally involve short-lived assets and liabilities, and usually they are easily reversed. Compare, for example, a 60-day bank loan for $50 million with a $50 million issue of 20-year bonds. The bank loan is clearly a short-term decision. The firm can repay it two months later and be right back where it started. A firm might conceivably issue a 20-year bond in January and retire it in March, but it would be extremely inconvenient and expensive to do so. In practice, such a bond issue is a long-term decision, not only because of the bond’s 20-year maturity but also because the decision to issue it cannot be reversed on short notice.
A financial manager responsible for short-term financial decisions does not have to look far into the future. The decision to take the 60-day bank loan could properly be based on cash-flow forecasts for the next few months only. The bond issue decision will normally reflect forecasted cash requirements 5, 10, or more years into the future.
Managers concerned with short-term financial decisions can avoid many of the difficult conceptual issues encountered elsewhere in this book. In a sense, short-term decisions are easier than long-term decisions, but they are not less important. A firm can identify extremely valuable capital investment opportunities, find the precise optimal debt ratio, follow the perfect dividend policy, and yet founder because no one bothers to raise the cash to pay this year’s bills. Hence the need for short-term planning.
We start the chapter with an overview of the major classes of short-term assets and liabilities. We show how long-term financing decisions affect the firm’s short-term financial planning problem. We describe how financial managers trace changes in cash and working capital, and we look at how they forecast month-by-month cash requirements or surpluses and develop short-term financing strategies. We conclude by examining more closely the principal sources of short-term finance.
30.1 THE COMPONENTS OF WORKING CAPITAL
Short-term, or current, assets and liabilities are collectively known as working capital. Table 30.1 gives a breakdown of current assets and liabilities for all manufacturing corporations in the United States in 2000. Note that current assets are larger than current liabilities. Net working capital (current assets less current liabilities) was positive.
Current Assets
One important current asset is accounts receivable. When one company sells goods to another company or a government agency, it does not usually expect to be paid immediately. These unpaid bills, or trade credit, make up the bulk of accounts receivable. Companies also sell goods on credit to the final consumer. This consumer credit makes up the remainder of accounts receivable. We will discuss the management of receivables in Chapter 32. You will learn how companies decide which customers are good or bad credit risks and when it makes sense to offer credit.
Another important current asset is inventory. Inventories may consist of raw materials, work in process, or finished goods awaiting sale and shipment. Firms
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T A B L E 3 0 . 1
Current assets and liabilities for U.S. manufacturing corporations, first quarter, 2001 (figures in $ billions).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining and Trade Corporations, First Quarter, 2001 (www.census. gov/prod/www/abs/qfr-mm).
Current Assets |
Current Liabilities |
Cash |
156.3 |
Marketable securities |
104.4 |
Accounts receivable |
527.2 |
Inventories |
510.7 |
Other current assets |
248.9 |
Total |
1547.5 |
Short-term loans |
228.4 |
Accounts payable |
357.3 |
Accrued income taxes |
55.5 |
Current payments due |
85.3 |
on long-term debt |
|
|
Other current liabilities |
|
507.4 |
Total |
1233.9 |
Net working capital (current assets current liabilities) $1,547.5 1,233.9$313.6 billion
invest in inventory. The cost of holding inventory includes not only storage cost and the risk of spoilage or obsolescence but also the opportunity cost of capital, that is, the rate of return offered by other, equivalent-risk investment opportunities.1 The benefits of holding inventory are often indirect. For example, a large inventory of finished goods (large relative to expected sales) reduces the chance of a “stockout” if demand is unexpectedly high. A producer holding a small finished-goods inventory is more likely to be caught short, unable to fill orders promptly. Similarly, large inventories of raw materials reduce the chance that an unexpected shortage would force the firm to shut down production or use a more costly substitute material.
Bulk orders for raw materials lead to large average inventories but may be worthwhile if the firm can obtain lower prices from suppliers. (That is, bulk orders may yield quantity discounts.) Firms are often willing to hold large inventories of finished goods for similar reasons. A large inventory of finished goods allows longer, more economical production runs. In effect, the production manager gives the firm a quantity discount.
The task of inventory management is to assess these benefits and costs and to strike a sensible balance. In manufacturing companies the production manager is best placed to make this judgment. Since the financial manager is not usually directly involved in inventory management, we will not discuss the inventory problem in detail.
The remaining current assets are cash and marketable securities. The cash consists of currency, demand deposits (funds in checking accounts), and time deposits (funds in savings accounts). The principal marketable security is commercial paper (short-term, unsecured notes sold by other firms). Other securities include U.S. Treasury bills and state and local government securities.
In choosing between cash and marketable securities, the financial manager faces a task like that of the production manager. There are always advantages to holding large “inventories” of cash—they reduce the risk of running out of cash and having to raise more on short notice. On the other hand, there is a cost to holding idle
1How risky are inventories? It is hard to generalize. Many firms just assume inventories have the same risk as typical capital investments and therefore calculate the cost of holding inventories using the firm’s average opportunity cost of capital. You can think of many exceptions to this rule of thumb however. For example, some electronics components are made with gold connections. Should an electronics firm apply its average cost of capital to its inventory of gold? (See Section 11.1.)
CHAPTER 30 Short-Term Financial Planning |
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cash balances rather than putting the money to work in marketable securities. In Chapter 31 we will tell you how the financial manager collects and pays out cash and decides on an optimal cash balance.
Current Liabilities
We have seen that a company’s principal current asset consists of unpaid bills from other companies. One firm’s credit must be another’s debit. Therefore, it is not surprising that a company’s principal current liability often consists of accounts payable, that is, outstanding payments to other companies. A firm that delays paying its bills is in effect borrowing money from its suppliers. So companies that are strapped for cash sometimes solve the problem by stretching payables.
To finance its investment in current assets, a company may rely on a variety of short-term loans. Banks and finance companies are the largest source of such loans, but companies may also issue short-term debt, called commercial paper. We will describe the different kinds of short-term debt toward the end of the chapter.
30.2 LINKS BETWEEN LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM FINANCING DECISIONS
All businesses require capital, that is, money invested in plant, machinery, inventories, accounts receivable, and all the other assets it takes to run a business efficiently. Typically, these assets are not purchased all at once but obtained gradually over time. Let us call the total cost of these assets the firm’s cumulative capital requirement.
Most firms’ cumulative capital requirement grows irregularly, like the wavy line in Figure 30.1. This line shows a clear upward trend as the firm’s business grows. But there is also seasonal variation around the trend: In the figure the capital requirements peak late in each year. Finally, there would be unpredictable week-to- week and month-to-month fluctuations, but we have not attempted to show these in Figure 30.1.
The cumulative capital requirement can be met from either long-term or shortterm financing. When long-term financing does not cover the cumulative capital requirement, the firm must raise short-term capital to make up the difference. When long-term financing more than covers the cumulative capital requirement, the firm has surplus cash available for short-term investment. Thus the amount of long-term financing raised, given the cumulative capital requirement, determines whether the firm is a short-term borrower or lender.
Lines A, B, and C in Figure 30.1 illustrate this. Each depicts a different long-term financing strategy. Strategy A always implies a short-term cash surplus. Strategy C implies a permanent need for short-term borrowing. Under B, which is probably the most common strategy, the firm is a short-term lender during part of the year and a borrower during the rest.
What is the best level of long-term financing relative to the cumulative capital requirement? It is hard to say. There is no convincing theoretical analysis of this question. We can make practical observations, however. First, most financial managers attempt to “match maturities” of assets and liabilities. That is, they finance long-lived assets like plant and machinery with long-term borrowing and equity. Second, most firms make a permanent investment in net working capital (current assets less current liabilities). This investment is financed from long-term sources.
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F I G U R E 3 0 . 1
The firm’s cumulative capital requirement (colored line) is the cumulative investment in all the assets needed for the business. In this case the requirement grows year by year, but there is seasonal fluctuation within each year. The requirement for short-term financing is the difference between long-term financing (lines A , A, B, and C) and the cumulative capital requirement. If longterm financing follows line C, the firm always needs short-term financing. At line B, the need is seasonal. At lines A and A , the firm never needs short-term financing. There is always extra cash to invest.
Dollars |
|
|
|
|
|
|
A+ |
|
|
|
A |
|
|
|
B |
|
|
|
C |
|
|
Cumulative |
|
|
|
capital |
|
|
|
requirement |
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Time |
|
The Comforts of Surplus Cash
Many financial managers would feel more comfortable under strategy A than strategy C. Strategy A (the highest line) would be still more relaxing. A firm with a surplus of long-term financing never has to worry about borrowing to pay next month’s bills. But is the financial manager paid to be comfortable? Firms usually put surplus cash to work in Treasury bills or other marketable securities. This is at best a zeroNPV investment for a taxpaying firm.2 Thus we think that firms with a permanent cash surplus ought to go on a diet, retiring long-term securities to reduce long-term financing to a level at or below the firm’s cumulative capital requirement. That is, if the firm is on line A , it ought to move down to line A, or perhaps even lower.
30.3 TRACING CHANGES IN CASH AND WORKING CAPITAL
Table 30.2 compares 2000 and 2001 year-end balance sheets for Dynamic Mattress Company. Table 30.3 shows the firm’s income statement for 2001. Note that Dynamic’s cash balance increased by $1 million during 2001. What caused this increase? Did the extra cash come from Dynamic Mattress Company’s additional long-term borrowing, from reinvested earnings, from cash released by reducing inventory, or from extra credit extended by Dynamic’s suppliers? (Note the increase in accounts payable.)
The correct answer is “all the above.” Financial analysts often summarize sources and uses of cash in a statement like the one shown in Table 30.4. The statement shows that Dynamic generated cash from the following sources:
1.It issued $7 million of long-term debt.
2.It reduced inventory, releasing $1 million.
2If there is a tax advantage to borrowing, as most people believe, there must be a corresponding tax dis- advantage to lending, and investment in Treasury bills has a negative NPV. See Section 18.1.
CHAPTER 30 Short-Term Financial Planning |
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|
2000 |
2001 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current assets: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash |
4 |
|
5 |
|
Marketable securities |
0 |
5 |
Inventory |
26 |
|
25 |
|
Accounts receivable |
|
25 |
|
|
30 |
|
Total current assets |
55 |
|
65 |
|
Fixed assets: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross investment |
56 |
|
70 |
|
Less depreciation |
16 |
20 |
Net fixed assets |
|
40 |
|
|
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total assets |
|
95 |
115 |
Current liabilities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bank loans |
5 |
0 |
Accounts payable |
|
20 |
|
|
27 |
|
Total current liabilities |
25 |
|
27 |
|
Long-term debt |
5 |
12 |
|
Net worth (equity and retained earnings) |
|
65 |
76 |
Total liabilities and net worth |
|
95 |
|
|
115 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T A B L E 3 0 . 2
Year-end balance sheets for 2000 and 2001 for Dynamic Mattress Company (figures in $ millions).
Sales |
350 |
|
Operating costs |
321 |
|
29 |
|
Depreciation |
|
4 |
|
|
25 |
|
Interest |
|
1 |
|
Pretax income |
24 |
Tax at 50% |
|
12 |
|
Net income |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
T A B L E 3 0 . 3
Income statement for Dynamic Mattress Company, 2001 (figures in $ millions).
Note: Dividend $1 million; retained earnings $11 million.
3.It increased its accounts payable, in effect borrowing an additional $7 million from its suppliers.
4.By far the largest source of cash was Dynamic’s operations, which generated $16 million. See Table 30.3, and note: Income ($12 million) understates cash flow because depreciation is deducted in calculating income. Depreciation is not a cash outlay. Thus, it must be added back in order to obtain operating cash flow.
Dynamic used cash for the following purposes:
1.It paid a $1 million dividend. (Note: The $11 million increase in Dynamic’s equity is due to retained earnings: $12 million of equity income, less the $1 million dividend.)
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PART IX Financial Planning and Short-Term Management |
T A B L E 3 0 . 4
Sources and uses of cash for Dynamic Mattress Company, 2001 (figures in $ millions).
Sources: |
|
|
|
Issued long-term debt |
7 |
Reduced inventories |
1 |
|
Increased accounts payable |
7 |
Cash from operations: |
|
|
|
Net income |
12 |
|
Depreciation |
|
4 |
|
Total sources |
31 |
|
Uses: |
|
|
|
Repaid short-term bank loan |
5 |
Invested in fixed assets |
14 |
Purchased marketable securities |
5 |
Increased accounts receivable |
5 |
Dividend |
|
1 |
|
Total uses |
30 |
|
Increase in cash balance |
1 |
|
|
|
|
2.It repaid a $5 million short-term bank loan.3
3.It invested $14 million. This shows up as the increase in gross fixed assets in Table 30.2.
4.It purchased $5 million of marketable securities.
5.It allowed accounts receivable to expand by $5 million. In effect, it lent this additional amount to its customers.
Tracing Changes in Net Working Capital
Financial analysts often find it useful to collapse all current assets and liabilities into a single figure for net working capital. Dynamic’s net-working-capital balances were (in millions):
|
Current |
|
Current |
|
Net Working |
|
Assets |
Less |
Liabilities |
Equals |
Capital |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-end 2000 |
$55 |
|
$25 |
|
$30 |
Year-end 2001 |
$65 |
|
$27 |
|
$38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 30.5 gives balance sheets which report only net working capital, not individual current asset or liability items.
“Sources and uses” statements can likewise be simplified by defining sources as activities which contribute to net working capital and uses as activities which use up working capital. In this context working capital is usually referred to as funds, and a sources and uses of funds statement is presented.4
3This is principal repayment, not interest. Sometimes interest payments are explicitly recognized as a use of funds. If so, operating cash flow would be defined before interest, that is, as net income plus interest plus depreciation.
4We drew up a sources and uses of funds statement for Executive Paper in Section 29.1.
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|
2000 |
2001 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net working capital |
30 |
|
38 |
Fixed assets: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross investment |
56 |
|
70 |
Less depreciation |
16 |
20 |
Net fixed assets |
|
40 |
|
|
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total net assets |
|
70 |
88 |
Long-term debt |
5 |
12 |
Net worth (equity and retained earnings) |
|
65 |
76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Long-term liabilities and net worth* |
|
70 |
88 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T A B L E 3 0 . 5
Condensed year-end balance sheets for 2000 and 2001 for Dynamic Mattress Company (figures in $ millions).
*When only net working capital appears on a firm’s balance sheet, this figure (the sum of long-term liabilities and net worth) is often referred to as total capitalization.
Sources: |
|
|
Issued long-term debt |
7 |
Cash from operations: |
|
|
Net income |
12 |
|
Depreciation |
4 |
|
|
23 |
|
Uses: |
|
|
Invested in fixed assets |
14 |
Dividend |
1 |
|
|
15 |
|
Increase in net working capital |
8 |
|
|
|
T A B L E 3 0 . 6
Sources and uses of funds (net working capital) for Dynamic Mattress Company, 2001 (figures in $ millions).
In 2000, Dynamic contributed to net working capital by
1.Issuing $7 million of long-term debt.
2.Generating $16 million from operations.
It used up net working capital by
1.Investing $14 million.
2.Paying a $1 million dividend.
The year’s changes in net working capital are thus summarized by Dynamic Mattress Company’s sources and uses of funds statement, given in Table 30.6.
Profits and Cash Flow
Now look back to Table 30.4, which shows sources and uses of cash. We want to register two warnings about the entry called cash from operations. It may not actually represent real dollars—dollars you can buy beer with.
First, depreciation may not be the only noncash expense deducted in calculating income. For example, most firms use different accounting procedures in their tax books than in their reports to shareholders. The point of special tax accounts is to minimize current taxable income. The effect is that the shareholder books
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PART IX Financial Planning and Short-Term Management |
overstate the firm’s current cash tax liability,5 and after-tax cash flow from operations is therefore understated.
Second, income statements record sales when made, not when the customer’s payment is received. Think of what happens when Dynamic sells goods on credit. The company records a profit at the time of sale, but there is no cash inflow until the bills are paid. Since there is no cash inflow, there is no change in the company’s cash balance, although there is an increase in working capital in the form of an increase in accounts receivable. No net addition to cash would be shown in a sources and uses statement like Table 30.4. The increase in cash from operations would be offset by an increase in accounts receivable.
Later, when the bills are paid, there is an increase in the cash balance. However, there is no further profit at this point and no increase in working capital. The increase in the cash balance is exactly matched by a decrease in accounts receivable.
That brings up an interesting characteristic of working capital. Imagine a company that conducts a very simple business. It buys raw materials for cash, processes them into finished goods, and then sells these goods on credit. The whole cycle of operations looks like this:
Cash
Receivables |
Raw materials |
Finished goods
If you draw up a balance sheet at the beginning of the process, you see cash. If you delay a little, you find the cash replaced by inventories of raw materials and, still later, by inventories of finished goods. When the goods are sold, the inventories give way to accounts receivable, and finally, when the customers pay their bills, the firm draws out its profit and replenishes the cash balance.
There is only one constant in this process, namely, working capital. The components of working capital are constantly changing. That is one reason why (net) working capital is a useful summary measure of current assets and liabilities.
The strength of the working-capital measure is that it is unaffected by seasonal or other temporary movements between different current assets or liabilities. But the strength is also its weakness, for the working-capital figure hides a lot of interesting information. In our example cash was transformed into inventory, then into receivables, and back into cash again. But these assets have different degrees of risk and liquidity. You can’t pay bills with inventory or with receivables, you must pay with cash.
5The difference between taxes reported and paid to the Internal Revenue Service shows up on the balance sheet as an increased deferred tax liability. The reason that a liability is recognized is that accelerated depreciation and other devices used to reduce current taxable income do not eliminate taxes; they only delay them. Of course, this reduces the present value of the firm’s tax liability, but still the ultimate liability has to be recognized. In the sources and uses statements an increase in deferred taxes would be treated as a source of funds. In the Dynamic Mattress example we ignore deferred taxes.