книги / 961
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2017
OECD G20
5
. 2. 50. . 65... 65 .., “ ” . .
. OECD, , .
119
5
2015 35 OECD 33 2.1 ,. 2.93 2.14 . OECD2/3 2000 .. 1960 ,
.
2015 OECD 1.71.19502000 ., , .
( ).
, . ., , ,. OECD1/3 .
50 OECD. 1960 OECD2 , OECD1.2 . 2015 0.3 2060 0.1.
2000 OECD. , , ,0.4 .
UN (United Nations Population Prospects) 2060 OECD 1.80
.
, . , 2.1 ., ..
, , ,, 2.1., 2030.
1, . 5. 1 2.1 ( ).
d’Addio, A.C. and M. Mira d’Ercole (2005), “Trends and Determinants of Fertility Rates: The Role of Policies”,
OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 27, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/ 880242325663.
120 |
2017 : OECD G20 |
5
5.1. 1960~2060
|
1960 |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2015 |
2030 |
2060 |
OECD |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.27 |
2.54 |
1.91 |
1.86 |
1.77 |
1.89 |
1.83 |
1.77 |
1.77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.78 |
2.04 |
1.60 |
1.48 |
1.38 |
1.45 |
1.51 |
1.63 |
1.75 |
|
2.65 |
2.01 |
1.60 |
1.61 |
1.68 |
1.78 |
1.80 |
1.83 |
1.86 |
|
3.68 |
1.98 |
1.63 |
1.69 |
1.52 |
1.61 |
1.56 |
1.60 |
1.72 |
|
4.95 |
3.58 |
2.70 |
2.43 |
2.03 |
1.82 |
1.76 |
1.72 |
1.76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.21 |
2.21 |
1.97 |
1.65 |
1.19 |
1.48 |
1.57 |
1.72 |
1.82 |
|
2.58 |
1.96 |
1.43 |
1.75 |
1.76 |
1.73 |
1.76 |
1.81 |
1.85 |
|
1.94 |
2.15 |
2.09 |
1.63 |
1.39 |
1.59 |
1.66 |
1.77 |
1.83 |
|
2.66 |
1.62 |
1.69 |
1.82 |
1.75 |
1.77 |
1.78 |
1.80 |
1.83 |
|
2.83 |
2.30 |
1.87 |
1.71 |
1.88 |
1.98 |
1.97 |
1.96 |
1.95 |
|
2.47 |
1.71 |
1.46 |
1.30 |
1.35 |
1.43 |
1.47 |
1.57 |
1.68 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.29 |
2.53 |
2.06 |
1.42 |
1.33 |
1.34 |
1.30 |
1.43 |
1.66 |
|
1.81 |
2.04 |
1.81 |
1.74 |
1.30 |
1.33 |
1.40 |
1.53 |
1.67 |
|
3.94 |
2.87 |
2.23 |
2.19 |
1.99 |
1.98 |
1.92 |
1.82 |
1.78 |
|
4.07 |
3.82 |
2.76 |
1.91 |
1.97 |
2.00 |
1.98 |
1.95 |
1.93 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.85 |
3.81 |
3.13 |
2.93 |
2.91 |
3.04 |
2.92 |
2.61 |
2.17 |
|
2.50 |
2.32 |
1.52 |
1.27 |
1.30 |
1.43 |
1.49 |
1.62 |
1.74 |
|
2.03 |
2.13 |
1.76 |
1.48 |
1.30 |
1.41 |
1.48 |
1.62 |
1.74 |
|
5.60 |
4.00 |
2.23 |
1.68 |
1.21 |
1.23 |
1.32 |
1.52 |
1.70 |
|
1.88 |
2.00 |
2.03 |
1.63 |
1.29 |
1.50 |
1.57 |
1.70 |
1.80 |
|
2.40 |
1.72 |
1.47 |
1.66 |
1.65 |
1.55 |
1.59 |
1.68 |
1.76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.75 |
6.71 |
4.37 |
3.23 |
2.61 |
2.29 |
2.14 |
1.81 |
1.72 |
|
3.17 |
2.10 |
1.51 |
1.59 |
1.74 |
1.73 |
1.75 |
1.79 |
1.82 |
|
3.85 |
2.84 |
1.97 |
2.07 |
1.95 |
2.04 |
1.97 |
1.85 |
1.79 |
|
2.90 |
2.35 |
1.69 |
1.89 |
1.81 |
1.82 |
1.83 |
1.84 |
1.86 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.72 |
2.23 |
2.31 |
1.95 |
1.26 |
1.33 |
1.29 |
1.41 |
1.65 |
|
3.19 |
2.83 |
2.01 |
1.48 |
1.45 |
1.28 |
1.24 |
1.38 |
1.64 |
|
2.91 |
2.51 |
2.27 |
1.87 |
1.22 |
1.39 |
1.46 |
1.61 |
1.74 |
|
2.34 |
2.20 |
1.93 |
1.33 |
1.21 |
1.58 |
1.64 |
1.75 |
1.83 |
|
2.81 |
2.85 |
1.88 |
1.28 |
1.29 |
1.33 |
1.39 |
1.52 |
1.66 |
|
2.31 |
1.91 |
1.64 |
2.01 |
1.67 |
1.90 |
1.91 |
1.92 |
1.93 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.60 |
1.87 |
1.54 |
1.54 |
1.41 |
1.53 |
1.55 |
1.60 |
1.67 |
|
6.20 |
5.39 |
4.11 |
2.90 |
2.37 |
2.12 |
2.02 |
1.83 |
1.74 |
|
2.81 |
2.01 |
1.78 |
1.78 |
1.66 |
1.88 |
1.87 |
1.86 |
1.86 |
|
3.23 |
2.03 |
1.80 |
2.03 |
2.04 |
1.88 |
1.89 |
1.90 |
1.92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OECD |
3.15 |
2.60 |
2.05 |
1.82 |
1.65 |
1.70 |
1.70 |
1.74 |
1.79 |
|
3.09 |
3.15 |
3.15 |
2.90 |
2.52 |
2.35 |
2.27 |
2.07 |
1.86 |
|
6.00 |
4.68 |
3.82 |
2.72 |
2.13 |
1.78 |
1.70 |
1.61 |
1.68 |
|
6.20 |
4.77 |
2.55 |
1.90 |
1.55 |
1.60 |
1.63 |
1.71 |
1.77 |
|
5.89 |
5.41 |
4.68 |
3.83 |
3.14 |
2.44 |
2.30 |
2.02 |
1.79 |
|
5.62 |
5.30 |
4.11 |
2.90 |
2.53 |
2.45 |
2.32 |
2.04 |
1.84 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
2.55 |
2.03 |
2.04 |
1.55 |
1.30 |
1.70 |
1.75 |
1.84 |
1.89 |
|
7.26 |
7.30 |
7.02 |
5.55 |
3.65 |
2.73 |
2.48 |
2.02 |
1.71 |
|
6.00 |
5.50 |
4.60 |
3.34 |
2.75 |
2.55 |
2.41 |
2.11 |
1.84 |
EU 28 |
2.60 |
2.24 |
1.90 |
1.66 |
1.47 |
1.56 |
1.59 |
1.68 |
1.78 |
: UN (World Population Prospects) – 2017 |
. |
StatLink |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933634230 |
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2017 : OECD G20 |
121 |
5
.. 2015~2020 78.3 , 83.4 .(87.2 ) (79.3 ) .(81.6 ) (69.7 ) . OECD 45 65
4.2 , 4.6 .
. 2015~2020 OECD65 21.32060~2065 25.5. 2015~2020
18.2 , 2060~2065 4.5 22.8.45 (OECD3.1 2.7 ).
OECD .2060~2065 65 29.028.1 .22.3 , 22.4.
.2060~2065 65 (24.2 )
, (24.1 ) .18.3 , 19.3.
65 2060~2065 OECD 2~4 .5 .(1.5 ), (1.6 ).
OECD ( 1 “ ” )..
.
OECD ,OECD .60.2 , 67.2. 80.5 , 75.0. 65 14.4 ,11.5 . 2060~2065 65 24.4 ,
21.2 .14.4 , 17.7 .
, (
2015~2020 2060~2065 ) ,( ) ..(2015~2020 2060~2065 ) .
2060~2065 65 1.5 1.1.
.
2015~2020 , 2060~2065 ..
122 |
2017 : OECD G20 |
|
5 |
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|
. |
Whitehouse, E.R. (2007), “Life-expectancy Risk and Pensions: |
|
Who Bears the Burden?”, OECD Social, Employment and |
|
Migration Working Paper No. 60, OECD Publishing, Paris, |
OECD (2017), Preventing Ageing Unequally, OECD Publishing, |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/060025254440. |
Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/231747416062. |
|
5.2. 2015~2020 ( )
StatLink 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933634249
5.3. 2015~2020 2060~2065 65 ( )
StatLink 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933634268
2017 : OECD G20 |
123 |
5
5.4. 2015~2020 2060~2065 65 ( )
: UN (World Population Prospects) – 2017 .
StatLink 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933634287
124 |
2017 : OECD G20 |
5
(old-age dependency ratio) 2075 2. . 2015 , OECD(20~64 ) 100 65 28 . 2050 14 , 2075 58
50 2 .
2015 OECD47 (100 65 47 ). ,, 35~38 . 207579, 76, 75, 73 .
11 13 , 18 . 2075 OECD 58 (69), 55 54 .
OECD 5 4 ( , ,, ) 22~26. .23 21 . 2075 OECD . 24 70 .
, , . OECD , .
.1980 OECD,. .
OECD . OECD.
OECD .1950 6 2075 79 .2015 OECD2075 .
EU 28 OECD .OECD. 2015 EU 28 30 OECD
28 . 2075 EU 58.
OECD OECD. .13 142075 62 66 .OECD . 29 , 31 .
20~64 10065 .
“ (medium-variant)” .
UN 2017 (United Nation, World Population Prospects – 2017 Revision).
2017 : OECD G20 |
125 |
5
5.5. : , 1950~2075
|
1950 |
1975 |
2000 |
2015 |
2025 |
2050 |
2075 |
OECD |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.0 |
16.0 |
20.6 |
25.0 |
31.2 |
41.2 |
48.4 |
|
17.3 |
27.1 |
24.9 |
30.5 |
37.1 |
59.4 |
63.1 |
|
18.1 |
25.2 |
28.3 |
30.6 |
37.1 |
51.0 |
54.0 |
|
14.0 |
15.4 |
20.5 |
26.1 |
36.2 |
48.1 |
54.5 |
|
8.6 |
11.3 |
13.1 |
17.0 |
23.6 |
43.0 |
61.2 |
|
13.9 |
22.7 |
21.9 |
28.8 |
37.1 |
58.9 |
55.6 |
|
15.6 |
23.7 |
24.2 |
33.0 |
37.7 |
45.3 |
53.4 |
|
19.3 |
21.2 |
25.0 |
31.0 |
39.2 |
56.3 |
59.0 |
|
11.9 |
18.1 |
24.8 |
35.0 |
44.0 |
48.8 |
54.7 |
|
19.5 |
24.5 |
27.3 |
33.3 |
40.9 |
52.3 |
55.8 |
|
16.2 |
26.5 |
26.5 |
34.8 |
41.4 |
59.2 |
63.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.4 |
20.9 |
26.7 |
33.0 |
39.2 |
73.4 |
75.2 |
|
13.2 |
21.3 |
24.5 |
27.9 |
36.6 |
52.4 |
57.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14.1 |
18.1 |
20.2 |
23.1 |
31.5 |
45.7 |
58.4 |
|
20.9 |
21.4 |
18.0 |
22.3 |
29.0 |
49.9 |
50.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.1 |
15.2 |
18.8 |
21.1 |
25.2 |
32.1 |
39.4 |
|
14.3 |
21.6 |
29.2 |
37.8 |
45.6 |
72.4 |
67.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.9 |
12.7 |
27.3 |
46.2 |
54.4 |
77.8 |
75.3 |
|
6.3 |
8.2 |
11.2 |
19.4 |
31.7 |
72.4 |
78.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18.1 |
21.9 |
25.1 |
31.5 |
39.0 |
52.3 |
52.0 |
|
15.8 |
22.6 |
22.9 |
22.0 |
26.4 |
42.0 |
47.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.9 |
9.6 |
10.0 |
11.4 |
14.8 |
32.2 |
53.7 |
|
13.9 |
19.3 |
21.9 |
30.2 |
39.0 |
53.0 |
59.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16.3 |
16.9 |
20.3 |
25.1 |
32.5 |
43.6 |
54.5 |
|
16.0 |
24.9 |
25.9 |
27.4 |
32.5 |
43.1 |
51.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.4 |
17.1 |
20.1 |
24.3 |
36.4 |
60.8 |
73.3 |
|
13.0 |
19.6 |
26.8 |
34.6 |
42.4 |
73.2 |
77.6 |
|
11.9 |
18.3 |
18.6 |
21.5 |
31.4 |
53.9 |
58.0 |
|
12.5 |
19.0 |
22.4 |
28.8 |
41.1 |
66.8 |
60.2 |
|
12.8 |
19.0 |
26.9 |
30.6 |
38.6 |
77.5 |
70.4 |
|
16.8 |
26.3 |
29.5 |
33.8 |
38.2 |
45.5 |
51.6 |
|
15.8 |
21.5 |
24.9 |
29.0 |
35.4 |
54.6 |
58.1 |
|
6.5 |
10.0 |
11.4 |
13.4 |
17.3 |
36.2 |
54.8 |
|
17.9 |
25.5 |
27.0 |
31.0 |
35.9 |
48.0 |
53.0 |
|
14.2 |
19.7 |
20.9 |
24.6 |
32.9 |
40.3 |
49.3 |
OECD |
13.9 |
19.5 |
22.5 |
27.9 |
35.2 |
53.2 |
58.6 |
|
7.5 |
14.1 |
18.6 |
19.5 |
21.8 |
31.8 |
44.6 |
|
6.5 |
8.0 |
9.3 |
13.0 |
18.3 |
40.1 |
62.3 |
|
8.5 |
8.8 |
11.4 |
14.5 |
22.3 |
47.9 |
58.8 |
|
6.4 |
7.6 |
8.7 |
10.0 |
12.7 |
22.0 |
37.0 |
|
8.6 |
7.9 |
8.7 |
8.7 |
11.6 |
23.1 |
32.5 |
|
8.7 |
15.5 |
20.4 |
20.7 |
30.1 |
40.0 |
37.6 |
|
7.5 |
7.6 |
6.1 |
4.8 |
7.5 |
27.4 |
40.6 |
|
8.5 |
8.1 |
7.8 |
9.0 |
11.1 |
17.8 |
29.0 |
EU 28 |
14.7 |
21.2 |
24.3 |
29.9 |
37.5 |
55.9 |
59.7 |
: 20~64 100 65 .
: UN (World Population Prospects) – 2017 .
StatLink 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933634306
126 |
2017 : OECD G20 |
5
OECD . 2016 55~59 OECD
69.6% 60~64 46.3%, 65~69 20.9% . OECD 12 55OECD OECD 10 OECD . OECD2000 55~64 2000 44.0% 2016 58.4% .
OECD 55~69. 2016 55~59 86% 60~64 83%. 65~69 56% . , 55~5947% 38% .
, , 55~59OECD (69.6%) 75~81%. 65~69 OECD .55~59 OECD60. 55~59
OECD 60~64 65~69
OECD .
, , , , ,, , , , OECD .
2000 OECD 55~64. 14%p 2000 44.0% 2016 58.4% . 25~54 2000 76.8% 2016
79.5% . 55~64 , 200038% 2014 69% .2000~2016 55~64 .
() ,. 115.
OECD review on Ageing and Employment Policies: Working Better with Age reports on Denmark, France, Netherlands, Norway, Poland and Switzerland (see www.oecd.org/els/ employment/olderworkers).
OECD (2017), OECD Employment Outlook 2017 OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/empl_outlook- 2017-en.
Sonnet, A., H. Olsen and T. Manfredi (2014), “Towards More Inclusive Ageing and Employment Policies: The Lessons from France, the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland”, De Economist, Vol. 162, December.
2017 : OECD G20 |
127 |
5
5.6. 2016 55~59 , 60~64 , 65~69
: OECD Employment database.
StatLink 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933634325
5.7. 2000~2016
55~64 %p , 2000~2016
: OECD.Stat.
StatLink 
http://http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933634344
128 |
2017 : OECD G20 |