Executive summary......................................................................................................................	4
Many models of multilateral power trade.............................................................................................................	4
Minimum requirements .......................................................................................................................................	4
Proposed trade models for ASEAN ......................................................................................................................	5

Findings and recommendations....................................................................................................	6
Highlights............................................................................................................................................................	6
Overview of study................................................................................................................................................	6
Categories of multilateral power trade.................................................................................................................	7
International experiences in multilateral power trading........................................................................................	8
Minimum requirements for establishing multilateral power trading .....................................................................	9
Building upon existing efforts ............................................................................................................................	11
Proposed trade models for ASEAN ....................................................................................................................	12
Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................................	14

1. Introduction............................................................................................................................	17
Models of cross-border power trade ..................................................................................................................	18
ASEAN principles for developing multilateral power trade .................................................................................	20
Overview of ASEAN’s energy sector ..................................................................................................................	21
References ........................................................................................................................................................	23

2. AMS perspectives....................................................................................................................	24
APG region: North.............................................................................................................................................	25
APG region: South.............................................................................................................................................	33
APG region: East ...............................................................................................................................................	39
References ........................................................................................................................................................	43

3. Regional perspectives..............................................................................................................	44
Existing regional integration efforts among AMS...............................................................................................	44
References ........................................................................................................................................................	52
4. International case studies ........................................................................................................	53
Primary power trading arrangements ................................................................................................................	54
Secondary power trading arrangements ............................................................................................................	61
Nascent power trading arrangements................................................................................................................	63
References ........................................................................................................................................................	69
5. Establishing multilateral power trade in an ASEAN context .......................................................	71
Minimum requirements for establishing multilateral power trade ......................................................................	71
Role of institutions ............................................................................................................................................	84
References ........................................................................................................................................................	92
6. Models for establishing multilateral power trade in ASEAN ......................................................	94
Overview of proposed models ...........................................................................................................................	94
Establishing harmonised bilateral trade with wheeling.......................................................................................	94
Establishing a secondary trading model...........................................................................................................	102
Establishing a primary trading model...............................................................................................................	109
7. Implications for ASEAN stakeholders .....................................................................................	115
Utilities.............................................................................................................................................................	115
Regulators.......................................................................................................................................................	119
Investors .........................................................................................................................................................	121
Consumers ......................................................................................................................................................	121
126

Establishing Multilateral Power Trade in ASEAN Table of contents

List of figures

Figure 1.	Categories of multilateral power trade ....................................................................................	8
Figure 2.	Minimum requirements for establishing multilateral power trade .........................................	10
Figure 3.	Data and information sharing: Private versus public ..............................................................	11
Figure 4.	A possible future for power trade in ASEAN ..........................................................................	15
Figure 5.	The APG................................................................................................................................	17
Figure 6.	Degrees of cross-border power system integration: From limited to complete......................	18
Figure 7.	Degrees of cross-border power system integration: From long term to short term................	20
Figure 8.	GDP (current price) by AMS and overall TPES for ASEAN......................................................	21
Figure 9.	ASEAN TPES by fuel type, 2017.............................................................................................	22
Figure 10.	ASEAN power generation (left) and installed capacity (right) by type, 2017...........................	22
Figure 11.	Installed renewable energy capacity in ASEAN by type, 2010-17 ...........................................	23
Figure 12.	The three APG regions ..........................................................................................................	24
Figure 13.	Generation mix, total generation and peak demand in Cambodia, 2011-17............................	25
Figure 14.	Power mix, total generation and demand in Lao PDR, 2011-16..............................................	26
Figure 15.	Myanmar’s generation mix, 2011-17 ......................................................................................	28
Figure 16.	Generation mix, total generation and demand in Thailand, 2011-17.......................................	29
Figure 17.	Thailand’s power mix in 2037.................................................................................................	30
Figure 18.	Viet Nam’s generation mix, total generation and total demand, 2011-16...............................	31
Figure 19.	Viet Nam’s power mix 2016-30 ..............................................................................................	32
Figure 20.	Indonesia (Sumatra) power mix, 2017....................................................................................	33
Figure 21.	Capacity additions in Indonesia, 2018-27, based on RUPTL ...................................................	34
Figure 22.	Power mix total generation and demand in Peninsular Malaysia, 2011-16 .............................	35
Figure 23.	Planned generation mix for Peninsular Malaysia in 2026 .......................................................	36
Figure 24.	Power mix – total generation and demand in Singapore, 2011-17 ..........................................	37
Figure 25.	Power mix – total generation and demand in Sarawak (Malaysia), 2011-17............................	38
Figure 26.	Power mix – total generation and demand in Brunei Darussalam, 2011-17.............................	39
Figure 27.	Indonesia (West Kalimantan) power mix, 2018 ......................................................................	41
Figure 28.	Capacity additions in Kalimantan, 2018-27 ............................................................................	41
Figure 29.	Power mix – total generation and demand in the Philippines, 2011-17 ...................................	42
Figure 30.	Evolution of the Philippines’ power mix, 2016-40 ..................................................................	43
Figure 31.	Pathway to establishing regional (multilateral) power trading...............................................	45
Figure 32.	Structure of the LTMS-PIP working group and technical task force .......................................	47
Figure 33.	Timeline of Phase 1 of the LTMS-PIP.....................................................................................	48
Figure 34.	PJM’s service territory within the Eastern Interconnection ....................................................	54
Figure 35.	PJM’s eastern territory ..........................................................................................................	55
Figure 36.	New England overview and context.......................................................................................	57
Figure 37.	Nord Pool rules and regulations related to power trading......................................................	59
Figure 38.	Overview of India, including key statistics .............................................................................	60
Figure 39.	SIEPAC (MER) overview and context .....................................................................................	62
Figure 40.	GCC interconnection .............................................................................................................	64
Figure 41.	Overview of South Asia region ..............................................................................................	64
Figure 42.	Market structures of the SACs...............................................................................................	65
Figure 43.	Select regional institutions in ASEAN and their relationships ................................................	84
Figure 44.	Select portions of the ASEAN Secretariat organisational structure........................................	85
Figure 45.	The structure of HAPUA and relationship to ASEAN collaborative meetings .........................	86
Figure 46.	Functions requiring or benefiting from regional co-operation................................................	88
Figure 47.	Overview of a CCP function ...................................................................................................	90
Figure 48.	Harmonised bilateral trading.................................................................................................	96
Figure 49.	Harmonised bilateral trading example: Path of information, money and power flows .........	101
Figure 50.	Market model for secondary trading ...................................................................................	103
Figure 51.	Secondary trading model – example of trade flows .............................................................	107
Figure 52.	Market model for primary trading .......................................................................................	110
Figure 53.	Primary trading model – example of trade flows .................................................................	114
	127

Establishing Multilateral Power Trade in ASEAN		Table of contents
List of tables
Table 1.	International case studies examined in this report ...................................................................		8
Table 2.	Cambodia’s interconnections with its neighbours (as of 2017) ...............................................		26
Table 3.	Lao PDR’s interconnections with its neighbours ....................................................................		27
Table 4.	Viet Nam’s interconnections with its neighbours (as of 2017).................................................		32
Table 5.	Status of the APG in MW by project as of January 2019 .........................................................		45
Table 6.	Statistical information about PJM .........................................................................................		54
Table 7.	Institutions and market participants......................................................................................		58
Table 8.	Statistical information about the Nordic region, 2018 ...........................................................		58
Table 9.	Statistical information about SAPP .......................................................................................		61
Table 10.	Statistical information about the GCC region and GCC IA......................................................		63
Table 11.	Costs and revenues for case study markets (USD million)......................................................		68
Table 12.	Basic agreement package for establishing cross-border TPA..................................................		77
Table 13.	Design parameters for developing an ASEAN-appropriate wheeling methodology ...............		79
Table 14.	Additional requirements – harmonised bilateral trade...........................................................		96
Table 15.	Analytical gaps – harmonised bilateral trade .........................................................................		98
Table 16.	Main responsibilities of the regional institution(s) under harmonised bilateral trading ..........		99
Table 17.	Example harmonised bilateral trade process .......................................................................		100
Table 18.	Additional responsibilities of the regional market operator in the secondary
	trading model......................................................................................................................		102
Table 19.	Identified additional requirements – secondary trading model ............................................		105
Table 20.	Identified analytical gaps – secondary trading model ..........................................................		106
Table 21.	Identified additional requirements – primary trading model.................................................		111
Table 22.	Identified analytical gaps – primary trading model ..............................................................		112
Table 23.	Overview of tiered access to data under a secondary trading model.....................................		117

128

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

The IEA examines	IEA member	IEA association
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of energy issues
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much more. Through	Germany
its work, the IEA	Greece
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the reliability,	Italy
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Table of contents

List of figures

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