however, those interconnections will not be integrated into Myanmar’s power grid. China and Thailand would construct their own transmission lines, which would be used exclusively for export.

In addition, in its PDP’s final draft, Myanmar also notes an interest in interconnections with other GMS countries, including Cambodia, Lao PDR and Viet Nam (National Energy Management Committee, 2015).

Thailand

Thailand is the largest economy of the five northern APG countries, making up approximately 57% of total GDP in the region. It represents approximately half of peak demand in the region, and has 45% of the total installed capacity. Thailand’s power mix is dominated by natural gas, which accounts for over 60% of the capacity and generation. Solar and wind have grown strongly and in 2017 accounted for 7.6 GW of capacity. Hydro accounts for another 3 GW. Thailand also has small but notable amounts of coal capacity. Electricity demand has been steadily increasing, rising from 148 TWh in 2011 to 185 TWh in 2017. Thailand’s reserve margin is 16 GW, or 25%.

Figure 16. Generation mix, total generation and demand in Thailand, 2011-17

Source: ASEAN Centre for Energy.

Thailand’s power mix is dominated by natural gas. The share of renewables, though small, is growing.

Thailand is notable for being the largest importer of electricity in ASEAN. In 2011, Thailand imported 10.7 TWh of electricity, or 6.5% of domestic demand. These imports came primarily from hydro plants and some lignite coal generation in Lao PDR and Myanmar. By 2017, total imports in absolute terms had more than doubled to 24.4 TWh, or 12.1%.

Thailand’s power system is organised under a so-called “enhanced single buyer” (ESB) model. Under the ESB model, the state-owned Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) owns and operates the transmission system and a portion of generation. In addition, Thailand has a notable share of IPPs classified into three categories: large and medium IPPs; small IPPs (SPPs); and very small IPPs (VSPPs). On the distribution side the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) serves the metropolitan Bangkok region, and the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) serves the rest of Thailand. In addition, however, SPPs and EGAT are allowed to sell

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directly to the large (typically industrial) customers. VSPPs, on the other hand, can sell only directly to consumers or to PEA and MEA – EGAT is not involved in those transactions.

Since 2007, regulatory responsibilities have been the domain of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), which was established as part of the Energy Industry Act, B.E. 2550 (2007). The ERC regulates both the electricity and natural gas sector. A state agency, the Office of the Energy Regulatory Commission was also established under the act to function as the secretariat, supporting the work of the ERC.

Thailand has cross-border interconnections with all of its neighbours except Myanmar. All of the interconnectors are used to import electricity, excluding the 300 kV HVDC interconnection with Malaysia, which is primarily used to export electricity (including as part of the LTMS–PIP).

Planned development, including cross-border integration

Under Thailand’s PDP 2018-2037 (PDP2018), 56 431 MW of new generating capacity will be built from 2018-37. Over this same period, 25 310 MW of capacity is expected to retire. On net, therefore, Thailand’s total installed capacity in 2037 would be 77 211 MW.

The PDP also includes an explicit portion of imported energy, which is expected to make up 12% of total supply in 2037. These imports would come from Lao PDR, Myanmar and Cambodia. The plan also assumes more renewables will be developed, particularly PV. The PDP also includes some nuclear development at the end of the planning horizon.

Figure 17. Thailand’s power mix in 2037

Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office (2019), Thailand Power Development Plan 2018-2037 (PDP2018).

Imports are expected to make up a significant portion of the Thai energy mix in 2036 along with natural gas.

PDP2018 emphasises improved power system reliability covering generation, transmission and distribution at the regional level. Key features include enhancing grid flexibility, promoting costeffective generation options, reducing the environmental impacts and boosting energy efficiency. This would primarily be met by reducing dependence on natural gas-fired generation and increasing the amount of renewables generation capacity and imported power. Renewables capacity would increase from 13% in 2018 to 33% in 2037. Solar PV in particular is expected to reach around 15 GW or 20% in 2037. Imported power would increase from around 7% in 2014 to 12% by 2037. Much of this increase will go to meet expected increases in demand. Several

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