Energy-related CO2 emissions and carbon intensity: SDG 13

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3. ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Estimates show that CO2 emissions in India are likely to have reached 2 299 Mt in 2018, with year-on-year growth from 2017 of 4.8% (IEA, 2018f). Total energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 144% from 2000 to 2017, close to the growth in GDP per capita.

Population and rapid economic growth have pushed up energy demand, which has become the key driver of India’s rising CO2 emissions and carbon intensity (Figure 3.9). From 2000 to 2016, the population grew by 27% and GDP per capita by 158%. The GoI objectives of increasing electricity access, combined with high economic growth rates (6.8% on average per year since 2010), and a growing population have led to an average increase in electricity demand of over 7% a year since 2010. Increased energy efficiency was not able to keep in check the increase in total energy demand, which almost doubled from 2000.

Over the period, CO2 emissions intensity rose by 22%, but the emissions increase was less pronounced thanks to the improvements in energy intensity (TPES/GDP), which fell by 39%. The overall carbon intensity of India’s economy puts India as the eighth highest in a comparison with IEA member countries (Figure 3.10).

Figure 3.10 CO2 intensity of India and IEA member countries, 2017

0.5kg CO /USD PPP (2010)

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

The high share of coal power makes India’s economy relatively carbon-intensive.

Source: IEA (2019a), CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2019, www.iea.org/statistics/.

In spite of the high carbon intensity of the energy supply, India has a comparatively lower level of energy use per capita. India’s per capita CO2 emissions are therefore lower than any IEA member and Association country by a large margin, less than half of Mexico’s and less than one tenth of Australia’s (Figure 3.11). Sustaining economic development and delivery of societal objectives in India will require the adequacy of energy resources for expected growth in energy consumption and energy use per capita over coming decades. Ensuring energy consumption growth at the same time as reducing carbon intensity of supply will be the key challenge.

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ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION

IEA. All rights reserved.

IEA. All rights reserved.

3. ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

improvement by 2030 compared to 2017 and 50% by 2040. The power sector represents just over half of total energy-related CO2 emissions, with the industrial and transport sectors accounting for 13% and 26% of the emissions respectively (Figure 3.13).

Figure 3.13 Energy-related CO emissions by sector, historical and NPS projections for 2030 and 2040

Power generation, heavily reliant on coal combustion, represents over half of total energyrelated CO2 emissions, its contribution having stabilised in recent years.

*Includes energy-related emissions in agriculture. **Energy-related emissions from manufacturing and construction.

***Emissions from refineries and other energy industry, and non-defined emissions.

Source: IEA (2019a), CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2019, www.iea.org/statistics/; IEA (2019b), World Energy Outlook 2019.

The power sector represents the largest emitting sector in India. The carbon intensity of India’s power generation has declined by over 10% since 2010, thanks to more renewable energy sources and a step change in coal power efficiency (up 6% over the last five years) after a suite of new plants were installed. The dominance of coal power still gives India significantly higher carbon intensity than the more mixed power supplies of the People’s Republic of China (“China”) and the IEA average (see Chapter 7 on electricity, Figure 3.10), but India has witnessed a stronger downward trend recently.

Figure 3.14 Electricity generation by source in India, historical and projected (STEPS)

Coal remains the primary source of generation, but its share declines over time, reducing power sector emissions.

Source: IEA (2019b), World Energy Outlook 2019.

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ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION

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