Cumulative global material needs for power generation in the CTS and LCS

Share of power sector in total material demand

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Note: Analysis above uses the Energy Technology Perspectives modelling framework.

In depth analysis: Implications for the buildings sector in the LCS

If CO2 storage deployment were limited, additional building measures beyond the CTS would be needed to support the transition to a low-carbon energy sector. They would consist of:

A more assertive and rapid phase-down of coaland oil-fired technologies in buildings.

A shift of gas assets (including gas-condensing boilers) to cleaner and more efficient heating technologies such as electric heat pumps, solar and district energy.

Accelerated deployment of high-efficiency technologies across all building end uses.

Greater uptake of renewables, such as solar thermal and modern use of solid biomass.

Direct emissions from fossil combustion in buildings would still amount to 87 Gt in the CTS over the period 2018–60, or all the CO2 emitted over the past 43 years by Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom combined. The LCS would require phasing out coal and oil more rapidly to reduce these direct emissions. In 2030, the market share of coaland oil-fired heating equipment in the buildings sector would drop to 5% in 2030 globally, and would be totally phased out by 2050.

Additional reductions in direct buildings emissions would result from strategic investments to phase down inefficient gas-fired technologies. While the CTS assumes that markets move away from conventional non-condensing gas boilers for heating, the LCS would go further in phasing down condensing gas boilers as well. A strategic shift from gas to more efficient electricitydriven technologies and district energy would help achieve climate mitigation objectives while bringing greater flexibility to the electricity system. Taken together, all measures pursued would lead to a nearly 15% reduction in cumulative direct fossil fuel-related emissions from buildings relative to the CTS.

Indirect emissions from electricity and commercial heat generation would amount to roughly 100 Gt cumulatively to 2060 in the CTS. This scenario assumes that best available technologies would be gradually deployed to achieve high energy efficiency performance levels in the long term. The LCS would tap into the potential for upfront electricity saving by deploying these high-efficiency technologies more rapidly in the coming decade across all building end uses. For instance, markets would move to light-emitting diodes with an efficiency above 150 lumens per watt in the next 10 years, while heat pumps with coefficients of performance exceeding 4 and air conditioners with seasonal energy efficiency ratios greater than 6 would be deployed before 2030. In the CTS, those market average efficiency levels are achieved more incrementally by 2040.

Additional measures to increase the use of renewable sources of energy would reduce electricity and fossil fuel consumption further in the LCS. Solar technologies for heating and cooling include PV systems with heat pumps or thermally driven heat pumps using heat as a power source. Storage capacity, modern district energy networks and digitalisation would also bring flexibility to energy networks to accommodate such intermittent energy sources. The efficient use of solid biomass, for example for heat generation, would equally supports the shift away from fossil fuels.

The strategic decline of coal, oil and gas use in buildings would reduce buildings sector direct emissions by 14 Gt CO2 in the 2018–60 period in the LCS (Figure 42). This represents nearly 80% of the total buildings sector carbon abatement potential (includes direct and indirect emissions) from the CTS to the LCS. Other energy efficiency measures would generate more than 1 200 TWh of electricity savings annually, alleviating the pressure on the power sector and facilitating its decarbonisation.

Figure 41. Cumulative buildings sector heating technology sales, direct CO2 emissions and electricity consumption in the CTS and LCS, 2018–60

IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Notes: PWh = petawatt hour. Analysis above uses the Energy Technology Perspectives modelling framework.

Avoiding 14 million sales of fossil fuel equipment in buildings would reduce direct emissions by 15% in the LCS, while greater uptake of energy efficiency and renewables would support the decarbonisation of the power sector.

In-depth analysis: Implications for the transport sector in the LCS

Limited CCS deployment would also have implications for transport. Additional policy pushes would need to target measures with high potential for carbon abatement, namely electrification of road transport modes, improved logistics in road freight, and “avoid-shift” measures.23 Fuel and vehicle taxes would need to be higher than in the CTS. City-level policies would be needed to internalise the externalities of car use and to promote the build-out and modernisation of public transport networks to spur efficiencies in road transport modes and a shift to buses and rail. These would need to be coupled with policies to promote the market uptake and continuing technological development of electric vehicles. As shown in Figure 42, the above policy measures would need to realise the following carbon abatement measures over and above the CTS:

more rapid penetration of electric powertrains in PLDV and bus fleets

an additional 2% reduction in activity (in vkm) of PLDVs by 2060

a concomitant increase in bus and rail activity (vkm), which would increase by 16% and 8%, respectively, by 2060

a reduction in road freight activity (vkm), which would result from a push for greater operational efficiencies coming from improved routing, improved vehicle utilisation (i.e. greater average loads), and reduced empty running, such that total truck vkm would be 9% lower by 2060.

Cumulative direct CO2 emissions from transport over the period 2017 to 2060 would be reduced by 15 Gt, from 267 Gt in the CTS to 252 Gt in the LCS. The majority of the reductions would come about through reduced gasoline and diesel demand over the period 2018–60 (by 6% and 10%, respectively). Cumulative electricity demand from plug-in and battery electric vehicles would be higher in the LCS variant (by 14%), despite the fact that increases in the share of electric PLDVs and buses would be somewhat offset by a smaller total PLDV stock (Figure 43).

Figure 42. Key additional mitigation actions in LCS compared to CTS, 2017–60

IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Notes: EV = electric vehicle. Analysis above uses the Energy Technology Perspectives modelling framework.

Fuel taxes pegged to the well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions intensity of fuels, together with vehicle taxation and city-level measures to promote a diversity of transport options, would lead to additional emissions reductions of 15 Gt CO2 in the LCS.

Figure 43. Fuel consumption in the LCS compared to the CTS, cumulative to 2060

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Note: Analysis above uses the Energy Technology Perspectives modelling framework.

Pricing policies would make the use of oil-based fuels more expensive in the LCS. These would be complemented by measures that promote vehicle electrification. The results would be smaller fleets, lower gasoline and diesel demand, and an increase in electricity demand.