3. The implications if CO2 storage were limited

3. The implications if CO2 storage were limited

CCUS technologies play an important role in meeting the ambitions of the CTS as part of a least-cost portfolio of technologies and measures. Previous IEA analysis has shown that the role of CCUS increases with the level of climate ambition (IEA, 2017) and the IPCC has highlighted the critical importance of CDR technologies, particularly BECCS, in limiting future temperature increases to below 2°C (IPCC 2018). However, the reliance on CCUS technologies in climate scenarios stands in contrast to the relatively limited deployment of CCUS facilities today.

In order to understand the energy system-wide implications should CCUS not be available at the scale envisaged in the CTS, a limited CO2 storage variant (LCS) was considered. In the LCS, despite increased climate ambition, the vast global CO2 storage resources would not be developed due to a lack of supportive policy or other economic or social factors. Only storage resources that would be developed without significant changes to the current policy and political climate would be available in the LCS, with total cumulative CO2 storage limited to under 10 Gt CO2, the level in the RTS.

Is CO2 storage likely to be limited?

While there is a high degree of confidence that global storage resources are well in excess of future requirements, even under highly ambitious scenarios, failure to develop these resources in a timely manner could act as a brake on CCS deployment. Key factors that could limit CO2 storage availability in practice include:

Lack of investment in CO2 storage exploration and assessment. Confidence in the availability of adequate, secure and safe CO2 storage resources will be a prerequisite for investment in CO2 capture facilities and CO2 transport infrastructure. The CO2 storage assessment process must identify geotechnical uncertainties related to containment,6 injectivity and capacity, in addition to considering economic, social and regulatory factors. Experience has demonstrated that this process can take anywhere from 1 to 15 years, depending on the storage option (IEAGHG, 2011).

Proximity of emission sources to CO2 storage. While CO2 can be transported over long distances by pipeline or ship, the availability of storage in proximity to emissions sources will be an important commercial consideration. The availability of CO2 storage near large industrial or power facilities could be limited by geotechnical factors, competition with underground resources in terms of pore spaces (oil, gas, coal, fresh water), or surface constraints (including urban areas, densely populated areas, environmentally sensitive areas, existing infrastructure, protected areas such as parks).

6 Containment refers to ensuring that any injected CO2 should not migrate out of the storage complex. Injectivity is the amount of CO2 that can be injected at the rate that it is delivered over time. Capacity is the total CO2 volume that can be practically injected and stored.

PAGE | 31

IEA. All rights reserved.