targeted percentage of the OEM sales in a given year. In the first case, the value is used directly. In the second case, the number of EVs corresponding to the announcement is estimated as the product of the number of models by a range of values of EV sales per model. In 2020, this range falls between 10 ooo and 30 000 units in a low and high bound, respectively. For 2025, EV sales per model range between 30 000 and 50 000 units. The increase is consistent with a widening range of models available, increased consumer awareness and improving cost competitiveness. By mean of comparison, 30 000 vehicles per model is a value that is broadly consistent with the vehicle to model ratio announced for 2025 by Volkswagen. Use of 10 000 is a conservative estimate, compatible with the magnitude of the ratio announced by Daimler for 2025. The 50 000 estimate reflects the vehicles to model ratio of successful EV models such as the Nissan Leaf and the Tesla Model S after four/five years on the market. In the third case, the number of EVs is evaluated calculating the market share of the OEM that made the announcement in 2018 and multiplying it by the total PLDV market size projected in the New Policies Scenario. Market shares by each OEM are calculated using data from Marklines (2019) and the share is kept constant over time.

EV sales in years preceding the year targeted by an announcement are determined using an exponential growth that achieves the number of EVs announced (or estimated as outlined above) for the target year. Sales occurring after the year targeted by an announcement are evaluated using both conservative and optimistic development paths. In the conservative case, EV sales by OEM are kept constant. In the optimistic case, the sales follow the rate of growth of the overall EV sales in the New Policies Scenario. For Chinese OEMs, sales in the upper bound case are capped at 6.3 million units per year from 2020 onwards, i.e. at a value that corresponds to 66% of a production capacity of 9.4 million vehicles. This is a rather conservative estimate, based on the collection of information on expected production capacities developed for the Global EV Outlook 2018 (IEA, 2018a), if compared with recent announcements of production capacities of 20 million units by 2020 (Ren, 2019). In the lower bound case, sales of EVs from Chinese OEMs are limited at 2 million from 2020 onwards.

Sources: IEA analysis developed with the IEA Mobility Model (IEA, 2019a) based on the OEM announcements included in Chapter 2 (Table 2.11) and Marklines (2019).

Buses

The electric bus fleet attains 3.2 million in 2025 and 4.8 million in 2030 in the New Policies Scenario, hitting 7% and 10% stock shares respectively. The electrification of the bus fleet occurs primarily for urban buses, given their lower range requirements relative to intercity buses. PHEV (or range extender hybrid) buses also become part of the fleet thanks to their capacity to delivery energy efficiency improvements in regions that regulate fuel economy in heavy-duty vehicles, but their penetration is limited in comparison with urban buses (PHEVs/range extender hybrids account for slightly more than 10% of the electric bus fleet in the New Policies Scenario).

In the EV30@30 Scenario, the deployment of EVs in the bus sector accelerates, reaching 8.2 million in 2030, corresponding to 15% of the stock, primarily in urban buses. This is consistent with stronger commitments from municipalities and public transport operators, and could be enabled by policy instruments such as minimum requirements in public procurement processes, tightening of fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles and their extension to buses.

Trucks

Electric trucks reach 0.9 million units in 2030 in the New Policies Scenario and 3.3 million in the EV30@30 Scenario, corresponding to 1% and 3% of the total truck stock. The penetration of electric heavy trucks is higher in medium size than in heavy truck segments. This is because medium trucks have more applications in urban areas, where vehicle usage profiles are inherently characterised by lower mileage (due to speed and travel time limitations), and regional deliveries, better suited for deliveries taking place with a hub-and-spoke type of operation than long-haul freight transport. Electric trucks are also fit to respond to announced intentions to restrict the circulation of ICE vehicles in major metropolitan areas.