Global EV Outlook 2019 |
3. Outlook |
Electric vehicle projections
Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
Several governments worldwide have developed policy tools and established targets to foster EV deployment. Table 3.1 summarises recent policy instruments and goals related to the electrification of LDVs. Table 3.2 does the same for mediumand heavy-duty vehicles (buses and trucks). Taken together, these measures outline the policy context taken into account for the development of the New Policies Scenario in this outlook.
Table 3.1. Key government policy measures and targets to advance deployment of electric lightduty vehicles
|
Country/ |
|
Key policy measures and targets* |
|
|
Announced |
|
|
Source |
|
||
|
region |
|
|
|
(year) |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Asia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Target of 5 million EVs by 2020 (including |
2012 |
|
|
|
Government of China (2012) |
|||
|
|
|
|
4.6 million PLDVs). |
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
New electric vehicle (NEV)b mandate: 12% |
2016 |
|
|
|
Government of China (2018) |
|||
|
China |
|
NEV credit sales in passenger cars by 2020.c |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
Roadmap for NEV sales share: 7-10% by |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
(EV30@30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marklines (2017) |
||||
|
|
2020, 15-20% by 2025 and 40-50% by |
2017 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
signatory)a |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
2030. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Proposal for tightened fuel economy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
standard (4 L/100 km [NEDC] by 2025). |
2019 |
|
|
|
Government of China (2019) |
|||
|
|
|
|
(Current fuel economy standard until 2020). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Target of 30% EV sales by 2030 across all |
|
2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
modes. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
India |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Government of India (2018) |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
Public procurement from EESL (target |
|
2018 |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
500 000 vehicles, implementation delayed). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO2 emissions standard of 113 g CO2/km in |
|
2015 |
|
|
|
Ministry of Power of India |
||
|
|
|
2022. |
|
|
|
|
(2015) |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Indonesia |
|
2 200 EVs in PLDVs by 2025. |
2019 |
|
|
|
Market Research Indonesia |
||||
|
|
|
(2019) |
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Target of 20-30% BEV and PHEV sales in |
|
|
|
|
|
Government of Japan (2014) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PLDVs by 2030 (in addition to 40% HEVs |
|
2014 |
|
|
|
and Government of Japan |
|
|
|
|
|
|
and 3% FCEVs). |
|
|
|
|
|
(2018) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Japan |
|
|
Long-term goal (“by the end of 2050”) of |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
a reduction of 80% of GHG emissions per |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
(EV30@30 |
|
|
|
2018 |
|
|
|
Government of Japan (2018) |
|
||
|
|
|
vehicle produced by Japanese |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
signatory) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
automakers. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fuel economy target of 19.7% reduction in |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
specific fuel consumption by 2020 |
|
2011 and |
|
|
|
ECCJ (2011) and Government |
|
|
|
|
|
|
compared to 2009 and an additonal 23.8% |
|
2019 |
|
|
|
of Japan (2019a) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
between 2020 and 2030. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Targets of 430 000 BEVs and 67 000 |
2019 |
|
|
|
Government of Korea (2019) |
|||
|
|
|
|
FCEVs on the road by 2022. |
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Korea |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
Subsides and rebates on national and local |
|
|
|
|
|
Korean Environment |
||||
|
|
|
|
vehicle acquisition taxes, reduced highway |
2018 |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corporation (2019) |
|||||
|
|
|
|
toll fees and public parking fees. |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PAGE | 115
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 3. Outlook
|
Country/ |
|
Key policy measures and targets* |
|
|
|
Announced |
|
|
Source |
|
|
|
region |
|
|
|
|
(year) |
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Thailand |
|
Target of 1.2 million EVs by 2036. |
|
|
|
2016 |
|
|
|
Harman (2018) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Malaysia |
|
Target of 100 000 passenger LDV stock |
2017 |
|
|
|
Government of Malaysia |
||||
|
|
in 2030. |
|
(2017) |
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Europed |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Emission standards for g CO2/km of |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LDVs, requiring 15% reduction between |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2021 and 2025 and 37.5% (30% for vans) |
|
|
2019 |
|
|
|
European Council (2019a) |
|
|
|
|
|
by 2030, including incentives attached to |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
European |
|
15% and 35% zeroand low-emissions |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Union |
|
vehicle shares. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revision of the Clean Vehicles Directive |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
on public procurement, including |
|
|
2018 |
|
|
|
European Parliament (2019a) |
|
|
|
|
|
minimum requirements of 17.6% in 2025 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
and 38.5% in 2030. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Denmark |
|
Target of 1 million electrified vehicles |
2018 |
|
|
|
Government of Denmark |
||||
|
|
stock in PLDVs by 2030. |
|
(2018) |
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Finland |
|
Target of 250 000 EV stock in PLDVs by |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Government of Finland |
|
|
(EV30@30 |
|
|
|
|
2016 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
2030. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(2017) |
|
||
|
signatory) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ban on the sales of new cars emitting GHG |
|
2017 |
|
|
|
Government of France (2017) |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
in 2040. |
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
France |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
Multiply by five the sales of BEVs in 2022 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
(EV30@30 |
|
|
2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
compared to 2017. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
signatory) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Government of France (2018) |
|||
|
|
Reach a fleet of 1 million BEVs and PHEVs |
|
2018 |
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
in 2022. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Ireland
Netherlands (EV30@30 signatory)
Norway
Poland
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden (EV30@30 signatory)
United
Kingdom
Target of 500 000 EVs in passenger LDVs by 2030.
Target of 100% ZEV sales in PLDVs by 2030.
100% EV sales in PLDVs and LCVs by 2025.
1 million EVs in PLDVs by 2025.
Targets of:
-100% EV sales in PLDVs by 2030
-17% EV stock in PLDV by 2030.
Targets of:
-5 million EVs in LDVs, buses and two/ three-wheelers.
-100% ZEVs sales in PLDVs by 2040.
Targets of:
-Reduction of CO2 emissions from transport by 70% in 2030 compared to 2010.
-Net zero GHG emissions by 2045.
Target of 50-70% EV sales in PLDVs by 2030.
|
2018 |
|
|
|
Government of Ireland |
|
|
|
|
(2018) |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
||
2017 |
|
|
|
Kabinetsformatie (2017) |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2016 |
|
|
|
Government of Norway |
|
|
|
|
(2016) |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
||
2016 |
|
|
|
Government of Poland |
||
|
(2016) |
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2017 |
|
|
|
Novak (2017) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2019 |
|
|
|
Government of Spain (2019) |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2017 |
|
|
|
Government of Sweden |
|
|
|
|
|
(2017) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018 |
|
|
|
Government of the UK (2018) |
||
PAGE | 116
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019
Country/ region
(EV30@30
signatory)
Other
European
Unione
Key policy measures and targets*
Ban sales of new ICE cars from 2040.
Targets of:
-370 000 to 680 000 electric cars by 2020.
-4.4 million to 5.24 million electric cars by
2030.
North America
3. Outlook
Announced Source
(year)
2018 Government of the UK (2017)
2017 |
|
EC (2017a) |
|
|
|
Canada (EV30@30 signatory)
Targets of: |
|
|
|
- 10% ZEV sales in PLDVs from 2025. |
2019 |
Government of Canada |
|
- 30% ZEV sales in PLDVs from 2030. |
(2019) |
||
|
|||
- 100% ZEV sales in PLDVs from 2040. |
|
|
|
Annual reduction of CO2 emissions per |
|
|
|
kilometre of 5% from 2017 to 2025 for PLDVs |
2012 |
Government of Canada |
|
and 3.5% from 2017 to 2021 and 5% from |
(2012) |
||
|
|||
2022 to 2025 for light trucks. |
|
|
United
States (selected states)
|
Targets of: |
|
|
|
|
|
ZEV Program |
|
|
|
- 3.3 million EVs in eight states combined by |
|
2014 |
|
|
|
Implementation Task Force |
|
|
|
2025.f |
|
|
|
|
|
(PITF) (2014) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- ZEVg mandate in ten statesh: 22% ZEV credit |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sales in passenger cars and light-duty trucks |
|
|
2016 |
|
|
|
ZEV PITF (2014) |
|
|
by 2025.i |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- California: 1.5 million ZEVs and 15% of |
|
|
|
|
|
State of California (2018; |
|
|
|
effective sales by 2025, and 5 million ZEVs by |
|
2016 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
2016) CARB (2016) |
|
|||
2030. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
Other countries
Costa Rica
Chile
Israel3
New
Zealand
Target of 37 000 EVs stock in PLDVs by 2023.
40% EVs in PLDVs by 2050.
Targets of:
-177 000 EV stock in PLDVs by 2025.
-1.5 million EV stock in PLDVs by 2030.
Target of 64 000 EVs stock in PLDV by 2021.
2017 |
|
|
Government of Costa Rica |
||
|
(2017) |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018 |
|
|
Government of Chile (2018) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018 |
|
|
Government of Israel (2018) |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2016 |
|
|
Government of New Zealand |
|
|
|
|
(2016) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* The text in bold and italic font indicates that the targets are new or updated since the Global EV Outlook 2018 (IEA, 2018a).
Notes: LDVs = light-duty vehicles; PLDVs = passenger light-duty vehicles; BEVs = battery electric vehicles; LCVs = light-commercial vehicles; HEVs = hybrid vehicles; FCEVs = fuel cell electric vehicles; ZEV = zero-emissions vehicle; ICE = internal combustion engine; g CO2/km = grammes of carbon dioxide per kilometre.
(a)Countries that joined the EV30@30 Campaign set a collective aspirational goal to reach 30% sales share for EVs across PLDVs, LCVs, buses and trucks by 2030 (CEM-EVI, 2018).
(b)New Energy Vehicle (NEV) includes BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs.
(c)The 12% NEV credit sales mandate includes multipliers depending on vehicle technology and range. Current NEV models are eligible for multipliers between 2 and 5 (ICCT, 2018).
(d)Several European countries also apply vehicle registration and circulation taxes differentiated on the basis of environmental performance (not included in this table).
3 The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
PAGE | 117
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
3. Outlook |
(e) This field summarises the European Union country targets stemming from the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive (AFID) 2017 submissions for countries that included a target and are not otherwise covered in this table. Countries included in this category are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus*, Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic and Spain. These countries are EU member states that are not signatories to the Electric Vehicles Initiative and countries that have not revised their targets since the AFID submission. Note that Germany submitted a 1 million electric car target by 2020 in the AFID, however, the chancellor announced in 2016 that this target could not be met; therefore this target was excluded from this field. * Note by Turkey: The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Turkey recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Turkey shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.
Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Turkey. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.
(f)California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont.
(g)Zero-emissions vehicle includes BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs.
(h)This includes the eight states listed above in note 6 plus Maine and New Jersey, which joined in 2016.
(i)The 22% sales mandate includes multipliers depending on vehicle technology and range. Most current models are eligible for credits between 0.5 and 3.
Table 3.2. Key government policy measures and targets to advance deployment of electric heavyduty vehicles
|
Country/ |
Key policy measures and targets |
|
Announced |
Source |
|
|
|
region |
|
(year) |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Asia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Target of 5 million EVs by 2020 |
|
|
|
Government |
|
|
|
(including 0.4 million buses and |
2015 |
|
of China |
||
|
China (EV30@30 signatory)a |
0.2 million trucks). |
|
|
|
(2012) |
|
|
Proposal to improve fuel economy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
of trucks by 15% by 2021 |
2016 |
|
ICCT (2016) |
||
|
|
compared to 2015 levels. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Target of 100% BEV share of |
|
2017 |
|
SIAM (2017) |
|
|
|
purchases in urban buses by 2030. |
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
India (EV30@30 signatory) |
FAME Phase IIb includes a |
|
|
|
Government |
|
|
|
purchase incentive scheme for |
|
2019 |
|
of India |
|
|
|
electric buses. |
|
|
|
(2019) |
|
|
|
Fuel economy to be improved |
|
|
|
Government |
|
|
|
13.4% by 2025 for heavy trucks |
|
|
|
||
|
Japan (EV30@30 signatory) |
2019 |
|
of Japan |
|||
|
and of 14.3% for buses compared |
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
(2019b) |
||
|
|
to 2015 levels. |
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Government |
|
|
Malaysia |
2 000 EVs in bus stock by 2030. |
|
2018 |
|
of Malaysia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(2017) |
|
|
Europe |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO2 emission standards for heavy- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
duty trucks for 2025 and 2030 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(including incentives to achieve a |
2019 |
|
EC (2019). |
||
|
|
2% market share for zeroand |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
low-emissions vehicles). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
European Union |
Revision of the Clean Vehicles |
|
|
|
European |
|
|
|
Directive including minimum |
|
|
|
Council |
|
|
|
requirements for urban buses (24- |
2019 |
|
(2019b); |
||
|
|
45% in 2025 and from 33% to 65% |
|
European |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
in 2030), and for trucks (6-10% in |
|
|
|
Parliament |
|
|
|
2025 and 7% to 15% in 2030). |
|
|
|
(2019a) |
|
PAGE | 118
IEA. All rights reserved.