3. Outlook

3. Outlook

Scenario definitions

This chapter quantifies the implications of transport electrification for the period 2018 to 2030. It provides insights on electric vehicle (EV) deployment, charging infrastructure roll out, battery capacity of the overall EV fleet and relative material demand, electricity demand for EVs, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings and avoided consumption of fossil fuels. The analysis considers two scenarios:

•The New Policies Scenario (NPS) is the central scenario of the IEA World Energy Outlook. The scenario incorporates the policies and measures that governments around the world have already put in place, as well as the likely effects of announced polies that are expressed in official targets or plans. It includes key policies in place as well as recent EVrelated updates (See Chapter 2, Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure). It aims

to illustrate the consequences of existing and announced policy measures and ambitions to advance the adoption of EVs and the deployment of charging infrastructure.1 A summary of the policies and targets for electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is included in Table 3.1 and similarly for heavy-duty vehicles in Table 3.2. The New Policies Scenario in this outlook also accounts for announcements from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) regarding plans to scale up EV car production (see Chapter 2, Table 2.11) and automotive battery production (see Chapter 2, Table 2.12).

•The EV30@30 Scenario is in line with the ambitions of the Electric Vehicle Initiative (EVI) signatories of the EV30@30 Campaign Declaration, which is to achieve by 2030 a 30% market share for EVs in all modes (except for two-wheelers, where this goal has been exceeded) (CEM-EVI, 2018). In the EV30@30 Scenario, the target of 30% sales share in 2030 for LDVs, buses and trucks collectively is met at the global level. To be able to assess the benefits of electric mobility on climate change mitigation, the scenario also accounts for relevant measures such as the progressive reduction of the carbon intensity of electricity generation, ways to reduce average trip distances and fewer trips by car, and to enable a

larger share of movements on public transportation and non-motorised modes of transport.2