
- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace
- •Policies have major influences on the development of electric mobility
- •Technology advances are delivering substantial cost reductions for batteries
- •Strategic importance of the battery technology value chain is increasingly recognised
- •Other technology developments are contributing to cost cuts
- •Private sector response confirms escalating momentum for electric mobility
- •Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
- •Electric cars save more energy than they use
- •Electric mobility increases demand for raw materials
- •Managing change in the material supply chain
- •Safeguarding government revenue from transport taxation
- •New mobility modes have challenges and offer opportunities
- •References
- •Introduction
- •Electric Vehicles Initiative
- •EV 30@30 Campaign
- •Global EV Pilot City Programme
- •Scope, content and structure of the report
- •1. Status of electric mobility
- •Vehicle and charger deployment
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Stock
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Sales and market share
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Publicly accessible chargers
- •Small electric vehicles for urban transport
- •Stock and sales
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Low-speed electric vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Buses
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Trucks
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Other modes
- •Shipping
- •Aviation
- •Energy use and well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •Electricity demand and oil displacement
- •Well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •References
- •2. Prospects for electric mobility development
- •Electric mobility targets: Recent developments
- •Country-level targets
- •City-level targets
- •Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure
- •Charging standards
- •Hardware
- •Communication protocols
- •Supporting policies
- •Canada
- •China
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policies
- •European Union
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •India
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Japan
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •Korea
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •United States
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •Other countries
- •The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
- •Industry roll-out plans
- •Vehicles
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •References
- •3. Outlook
- •Scenario definitions
- •Electric vehicle projections
- •Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
- •Global results
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Regional insights
- •China
- •Europe
- •India
- •Japan
- •United States and Canada
- •Other countries
- •Implications for automotive batteries
- •Capacity of automotive batteries
- •Material demand for automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses
- •Publicly accessible chargers for LDVs
- •Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand
- •Electricity demand from EVs
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the New Policies Scenario
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario
- •Implications of electric mobility for GHG emissions
- •References
- •4. Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Context
- •Methodology
- •Key insights
- •Detailed assessment
- •Life-cycle GHG emissions: drivers and potential for emissions reduction
- •Effect of mileage on EV life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Effect of vehicle size and power on EV life-cycle emissions
- •Effect of power system and battery manufacturing emissions on EV life-cycle emissions
- •References
- •5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment
- •Vehicle and battery costs
- •Challenge
- •EV purchase prices are not yet competitive with ICE vehicles
- •Indications from the total cost of ownership analysis
- •Effect of recent battery cost reductions on the cost gap
- •Impacts of developments in 2018 on the total cost of ownership
- •Solutions
- •Battery cost reductions
- •Reducing EV costs with simpler and innovative design architectures
- •Adapting battery sizes to travel needs
- •Supply and value chain sustainability of battery materials
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Towards sustainable minerals sourcing via due diligence principles
- •Initiatives for better battery supply chain transparency and sustainable extractive activities
- •Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
- •Battery end-of-life management
- •Implications of electric mobility for power systems
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Potential for controlled EV charging to deliver grid services and participate in electricity markets
- •Enabling flexibility from EVs
- •Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
- •Government revenue from taxation
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Near-term options
- •Long-term solutions
- •Shared and automated mobility
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •References
- •Statistical annex
- •Electric car stock
- •New electric car sales
- •Market share of electric cars
- •Electric light commercial vehicles (LCV)
- •Electric vehicle supply equipment stock
- •References
- •Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
- •Table of contents
- •List of Figures
- •List of Boxes
- •List of Tables

Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Other countries
Significant developments have been made in a number of countries in Latin America to initiate a transition to electric mobility. The region has favourable conditions for electric mobility. Three large vehicle producers operate in the region (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), and three countries (Argentina, Bolivia and Chile) have large reserves of lithium – one of the critical materials for the production of the batteries used in EVs (UN Environment, 2018).29 Moreover, Latin American countries have one of the highest shares of renewable-based electricity production. Two key countries deserve specific mention: Costa Rica and Chile.
Costa Rica is the first Latin American country to pass a law to promote electric mobility. In 2017, its congress passed Law 9518 to promote and provide incentives for electric transport (Government of Costa Rica, 2018; UN Environment, 2018). The law grants tax incentives to several modes of transport (cars, buses, two-wheelers) for public, private and institutional fleets. It established mandates for the state to electrify at least 5% of the bus fleet every two years and to deploy electric charging infrastructure. It also opens the door to public-private partnerships for the deployment of charging points. The law was followed by the announcement in February 2019 of the “National Decarbonisation Plan 2018-2050” (Government of Costa Rica, 2019), which states the aim to become a fully decarbonised country by 2050. With its electricity supply already being almost fully decarbonised, decarbonisation of the transport sector is one of its biggest challenges. As part of the plan, buses and taxi fleets are expected to become fully electric by 2050. As for private transportation, measures will be taken so that users gradually abandon fossil-fuelled cars and opt for zero-emission vehicles and carsharing.
In the framework of the 11th Meeting of the Forum of Ministers of Environment of Latin America and the Caribbean, held in October 2018 in Buenos Aires, Costa Rica presented a proposal for a “Dialogue on Electric Mobility”, which was supported by Argentina, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, St. Lucia and Uruguay (UN Environment, 2018). This dialogue aims to promote joint learning with regard to strategies and regulatory frameworks for electric mobility, development of financial instruments and new business models, facilitate capacity building and knowledge sharing, and promote joint collaboration in pilot projects, with emphasis on innovation and the creation of new jobs.
Chile is also one of the leading countries in electric mobility, having launched its “Electric Mobility Strategy” in 2017 (Government of Chile, 2018) and having joined the Electric Vehicles Initiative in 2018. Chile aims to make 100% of public transport electric by 2040 and 40% of private transport electric by 2050 (Revistaei, 2018). The most progress in Chile has been made in electric buses, and it now has one of the largest electric bus fleets in the world after China.
New Zealand has taken steps to encourage a transition to electric mobility. It joined the Electric Vehicles Initiative in 2018. The government has stimulated EV growth with a programme of interventions, including an EV public information campaign and a Low Emission Vehicles Contestable Fund.30 The information campaign develops and provides information to dispel myths about EVs and to motivate people to choose EVs. The fund supports innovation and investment in low-emissions vehicles and associated infrastructure. Over the past five rounds,
29Chile also has vast copper reserves.
30Information obtained through personal communication with the EVI contact point of New Zealand.
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Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
the fund has committed more than NZD 17 million (New Zealand dollars, USD 11 million) in government money to 93 projects. A key focus of the fund has been to boost public charging infrastructure making a significant contribution to the installation of over 200 fast chargers across the country. This is helping to achieve the government’s vision to have DC fast chargers every 75 km on the main highway network. Other government activity includes a plan to transition to an emissions-free government vehicle fleet, where practicable, by 2025/26. In 2019, New Zealand plans to introduce legislation to help transition to a net zero-emissions economy by 2050. The government is aiming to deliver further initiatives to incentivise the uptake of EVs, including investigation of new standards for vehicle fuel efficiency.
Indonesia in 2019 set a target to deploy 2 200 electric cars by 2025 (Market Research Indonesia, 2019). The regulatory framework for EVs is currently under discussion and an update of EV targets is under consideration.31
The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
Interest in a transition to electric mobility is not limited to specific regions or individual countries. To respond to growing global demand to build capacity on policies enabling greater EV uptake, to know more about the transition to electric mobility and to help ensure that the associated significant policy needs and challenges can be properly managed and anticipated, the International Energy Agency and UN Environment Programme have been actively working on the development of a global programme to support developing countries with the introduction of electric mobility.
The programme has been proposed for funding from the Global Environment Facility (GEF). If the programme is approved under the 7th four-year cycle of the GEF, its central activities will be to support countries with the introduction and transition to electric mobility.
The Global Programme would be one of the leading global initiatives on EV policy development and would include the following components:
•Global working groups to develop policy packages, tools and methodologies to help developing countries to better understand the policy requirements and the challenges associated with the transition to electric mobility. The working groups will look specifically at light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, the integration of EVs in power systems, sustainability of the supply chain and end-of-life treatment of automotive batteries.
•Regional platforms to disseminate the outputs of the global working groups; develop training and capacity-building activities; facilitate the establishment of platforms to ease financing of EV purchases; generate opportunities for replication; and to build communities of practice involving policy makers from different countries.
•A framework to facilitate expansion of the global tracking activity already initiated by the IEA with the development of the annual Global EV Outlook to monitor progress and enlarge the scope of the collection of data and information on electric mobility.
Countries that have declared intentions to join the programme include a large emerging economy (India), countries that can play a leading role in their global region (e.g. Armenia, Burundi, Costa Rica, Cote d’Ivoire, Chile, Madagascar, Peru, Sierra Leone, Togo and Ukraine) and a number of small island states (Antigua and Barbuda, Jamaica, Maldives, Seychelles and
31 Information obtained through personal communication with Andi Novianto, Assistant to the Deputy Minister for Energy, Mineral Resources, and Forestry Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia.
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IEA. All rights reserved.