Sales and market share

Cars

Global electric car sales were close to 2 million in 2018, after having reached the 1 million mark in 2017 (Figure 1.2). This represents a year-on-year growth in electric car sales of 68% between 2017 and 2018, a strong rate comparable to 2015 (68%), after two years of weaker growth.

China remained the world’s largest electric car market with nearly 1.1 million electric cars sold in 2018, up from almost 600 000 in 2017, and accounting for 55% of the global electric car market.12 This increase contrasts with the overall decline in the total of all passenger car sales that took place in China, with respect to 2017, highlighting further the dynamism of its electric car market.

In 2018, Europe was the second-largest electric car market with sales of 385 000 units. The United States, the third-largest electric car market, had sales of 361 000 units.

In Europe, the increase in electric car sales in 2018 is 31% relative to 2017, a growth rate that is lower than 2017 relative to 2016 (41%) and below the global average. Europe hosts the countries with the largest penetration of electric car sales. Norway approached 50% in 2018, more than 2.5-times the next highest country, Iceland (17.2%) and six-times higher than Sweden, which has the third-highest (7.9%). In terms of sales volumes, Norway is followed by Germany, United Kingdom and France. Denmark and the Netherlands,13 where sales had declined in 2017, rebounded strongly in 2018.

Sales in the United States rose by 82% in 2018, faster than the rate of the global market, a big increase compared to just 24% growth the year before. The release of the Tesla Model 3, with sales that fully cover the additional 134 000 BEVs sold in 2018 (compared with 2017), helps to explain this trend (Marklines, 2019).

In 2018, electric car registrations in Canada were 44 000 units, more than double the 2017 level.

Japan is the only major electric car market where sales fell between 2017 and 2018 (-8%). Other markets where electric car sales dropped, such as India, South Africa and Mexico, have much smaller electric car volumes.

Globally, more than two-thirds of electric car sales in 2018 were BEVs. This share has been steadily increasing from 50% in 2012 to 68% in 2018. This is consistent with China’s rapid electric car sales growth, as it is a BEV-dominated market (76%). The share of PHEVs in sales dropped in the United States from 47% in 2017 to 34% in 2018, due to strong BEV sales, in particular the Tesla Model 3. Europe remained a strong market for PHEV sales. PHEV sales dominated in Finland (86%), Sweden (75%)14 and United Kingdom (69%). In contrast, the PHEV share in electric vehicles (EV) sales significantly decreased in 2018 compared to 2017 in Japan (47% versus 67%) and the Netherlands (14% versus 22%). (Box 1. 2 highlights BEV and PHEV model availability and their distribution across major market segments.)

12China accounts for about one-third of the global car market when including internal combustion engine vehicles.

13Electric car sales in the Netherlands had decreased between 2013 and 2017 reflecting the termination of a tax incentive on PHEVs, but strong growth in BEV sales compensated in 2018.

14During the first months of 2019, BEV volumes reached those of PHEVs in Sweden and exceeded them in March, likely influenced by Tesla Model 3 deliveries.

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Global EV Outlook 2019 1. Status of electric mobility

Kingdom

Notes: The countries in this figure represent the top-ten EVI countries. This ranking closely resembles the ten leading countries worldwide in term of electric car sales; the only exception is Korea, with 33 000 electric car sales in 2018. See footnote 3 for the list of countries in the Europe category. Other includes Australia, Brazil, Chile, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa and Thailand. Europe includes Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus15, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom. Other includes Australia, Brazil, Chile, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa and Thailand.

Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, complemented by ACEA (2019); EAFO (2019); EV Volumes (2019); Marklines (2019); OICA (2019); CAAM (2019).

China has the highest volume of electric car sales worldwide, followed by Europe and the United States, while Norway is the global leader in terms of market share.

Box 1. 2. BEVs and PHEVs: model availability and distribution across different segments in the main global EV markets

The figure shows the number of models and the model distribution across various vehicle segments of BEVs and PHEVs, looking at the three main global markets for electric light-duty

15 Note by Turkey: The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Turkey recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Turkey shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.

Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Turkey. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.

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vehicles: China, Europe and the United States. The figure also shows that electric LDVs are not uniformly distributed across these markets, neither in terms of model availability or coverage of different market segments. It highlights that model availability of electric LDVs differs between BEVs and PHEVs.

Model availability of electric light-duty vehicles in China, Europe and United States, 2018

Notes: The bars indicate the number and the share of EV models available in the various segments differentiated by BEVs and PHEVs. The classification of vehicles shown here is broadly consistent with the categories used in (IEA, 2019a): small car = city car; medium car; crossover = small sport-utility vehicle (SUV)/pick-up truck; large car = large SUV/pick-up truck.

Source: Marklines (2019).

PHEVs are more widely available in large size vehicles, with 60% of all models in the large car and SUV segments, and with no PHEVs available in the small car segment. This trend is observed in all markets. The main reasons for the prevalence of PHEV in large cars are: the presence of two powertrains is better suited to larger vehicles; and increased requirements for long-range capability for such vehicles. All major markets have a roughly similar number of PHEV models available, with Europe having most models and the United States having the least.

BEVs are more evenly distributed among market segments than PHEVs, but they are mostly available as small and medium cars. This is consistent with the fact that today’s BEVs, which are characterised by lower driving ranges than conventional vehicles, are better suited for cars that are mostly used in cities for short-distance trips and can be equipped with smaller (and therefore cheaper) batteries than electric vehicles targeting long trip distances. The three main global EV markets differ in the availability of BEV models. There are about 16 models in the United States while the European Union has twice as many. A very broad array of available models numbering about 114 populates the market in China. This can be partially explained by the fact that the automotive market in China has higher fragmentation in terms of manufacturers than Europe and the United States, but also by the larger size of its domestic electric car market.

In China, very small cars have transitioned almost entirely to BEVs. In 2018, 90% of the cars sold in the very small car segment16 were BEVs, up from 39% in 2016 (Marklines, 2019). The

16 These are small city cars, the smallest category of passenger cars defined, and exclude cars in the subcompact category, which are also in the small car segment.

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