7. ELECTRICITY

The 2016 Energy Agreement includes a target of 100% renewable electricity generation by 2040. Although this does not impose a ban on nuclear power specifically, investments in new nuclear capacity are unlikely in today’s market conditions. The political ambition for more renewable electricity supply seems thus clear. The Energy Agreement also extends the electricity certificate system to provide certificates until 2030 by an additional 18 terawatt hours (TWh).

Supply and demand

Electricity generation and trade are increasing

After the commissioning of the nuclear power fleet in the 1970s and 1980s, Sweden’s annual electricity generation remained stable at around 150 TWh, roughly half nuclear and half hydropower, until the introduction of the electricity certificate system in 2003. Since then, new renewable power capacity has increased significantly. The certificate system is market-based and it steers investments into the cheapest technology (large hydropower taken into operation before 2003 is not part of the system). Initially, this was mostly biofuel-based co-generation1 plants. In recent years, however, wind power has become the cheaper option and received the majority of the issued certificates.

In 2017, the total electricity generation was 164 TWh, with 40% each for nuclear and hydropower, 11% for wind and 8% for bioenergy and waste (Figure 7.2). The power mix has the second-lowest share of fossil fuels among the IEA member countries, after Switzerland (Figure 7.3). From 2008 to 2017, hydropower generation averaged 67.4 TWh per year, ranging from 61 TWh to 79 TWh. Nuclear power averaged 61.5 TWh per year, ranging from 52 TWh to 66 TWh.

Figure 7.2 Electricity supply and net trade, 1973-2017

Bioenergy and waste

Although electricity demand has remained flat in recent years, power generation from biofuels and wind has increased rapidly and made Sweden a net exporter of electricity.

*Fossil fuels includes natural gas, coal, peat and oil products.

**Net trade refers to annual net imports (positive numbers) and net exports (negative numbers).

Source: IEA (2019a forthcoming), World Energy Balances 2019 preliminary edition, www.iea.org/statistics/.

1 Co-generation refers to the combined production of heat and power.

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Wind power generated 17.6 TWh in 2017, after more than doubling in five years and increasing more than tenfold from 2007. Bioenergy and waste generated 13.8 TWh, up by 29% since 2007. The rapid increase in new renewable power generation in the past decade has resulted in increased electricity exports. In 2017, net exports were 19 TWh, the third highest after 2012 (19.6 TWh) and 2015 (22.6 TWh) (Figure 7.4).

Figure 7.3 Electricity generation by source in IEA member countries, 2017

Estonia*

Poland

Australia

Mexico

Netherlands

Japan

Greece

Ireland

Turkey

Korea

Italy

United States

Portugal

Czech Republic

Germany

United Kingdom

Spain

Hungary

Belgium

Denmark

Luxembourg

Austria

Canada

Finland

New Zealand

Slovak Republic

France

Norway

Sweden

Switzerland

Sweden has the second-lowest share of fossil fuels in electricity generation in the IEA, thanks to high shares of nuclear and renewable energy.

* Estonia’s coal represents oil shale. Note: Data are provisional.

Source: IEA (2018a), World Energy Balances 2018, www.iea.org/statistics/.

Sweden is well interconnected with neighbouring countries, mainly through land cables to Norway as well as to Finland and high-voltage sea cables to Finland and Denmark, but also to Germany, Poland and Lithuania. In 2017, half of Sweden’s electricity exports went to Finland and all net imports came from Norway (Figure 7.4).

Sweden is also a net exporter of electricity on a monthly basis. Electricity generation varies with the demand throughout the year and peaks in cold winter months (Figure 7.5). In summer, when demand is low, nuclear power plants (NPPs) usually have planned maintenance periods, which decrease electricity output.

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The rapid growth in wind power is the major change in installed capacity in the recent decade. In 2017, Sweden’s total installed capacity was 40 gigawatts (GW), 18% more

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than in 2000 (Table 7.1). Nearly all of this increase came from wind power, supported by the electricity certificate system (see below). The Swedish Wind Energy Association (SWEA) projects further fast growth with 815 MW in 2018 and 1 734 MW in 2019 (SWEA, 2018). In contrast, the Ringhals 1 and 2 nuclear units with a total of 1.8 GW will close in 2019-20, because wholesale electricity prices have remained low and operation beyond 2020 would require large investments in safety upgrades.

Table 7.1 Installed generating capacity, 2000-17 (MW)

Electricity consumption is stable

countries. This is explained by the needs of the large electricity-intensive industry, especially mechanical pulping, widespread use of direct electric heating in detached houses and traditionally low electricity prices.

In contrast to the increasing electricity generation, electricity demand has remained relatively stable at around 130 TWh per year in the recent decades (Figure 7.6). In 2017, the total final consumption (TFC) of electricity was 130.5 TWh, 2% less than in 2007, but 4% more than in 2014. Industry is the largest electricity consumer, at 39% of the total in 2016, followed by households at 35% and the commercial sector at 22%. The paper industry alone used 16% of all electricity. Consumption varies from year to year, mostly because of changes in temperature and in the business cycle of the heavy industry.

The stable demand results from several trends that counteract each other. For example, increased electric heating in the 1980s and 1990s raised electricity demand, but the recent shift from direct electric heating to more efficient heat pumps stalled the growth in electricity demand. In industry, increased electrification has been offset by improved energy efficiency. Electricity demand is likely to increase, driven by further electrification of the transport sector and new consuming sectors, such as data centres. However, the volume of the demand increase is very uncertain.

The highest measured load in 2017 occurred on 5 January and amounted to 26 616 MW. Sweden’s all-time record load, 27 000 MW, was reached on 5 February 2001. As electric heating is common in Sweden, the load is correlated with the outside temperature (SEMI, 2018).

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