TABLE OF CONTENTS |
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Industry and market structure......................................................................................... |
146 |
Prices.............................................................................................................................. |
146 |
Security of supply ........................................................................................................... |
148 |
Assessment .................................................................................................................... |
149 |
Recommendations.......................................................................................................... |
150 |
ANNEXES
ANNEX A: Organisations visited .................................................................................... |
153 |
ANNEX B: Energy balances and key statistical data..................................................... |
155 |
ANNEX C: International Energy Agency “Shared Goals” .............................................. |
159 |
ANNEX D: Glossary and list of abbreviations ................................................................ |
161 |
LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES AND BOXES
Figures |
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2.1 |
Map of Sweden......................................................................................................... |
20 |
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2.2 |
Overview of energy production, TPES and TFC by fuel and sector, 2017 |
..............22 |
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2.3 |
TPES by source, 1973-2017 .................................................................................... |
23 |
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2.4 |
Breakdown of TPES by source in IEA member countries, 2017 ............................. |
23 |
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2.5 |
TFC by sector, 1973-2017........................................................................................ |
24 |
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2.6 |
TFC by source and sector, 2017.............................................................................. |
24 |
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2.7 |
Energy demand by sector, 1990-2014 and scenarios to 2050................................ |
29 |
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2.8 |
Energy supply by source, 1990-2014 and scenarios to 2050.................................. |
29 |
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3.1 |
GHG emissions by sector, 1990 and 2016 .............................................................. |
34 |
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3.2 |
Energy-related CO emissions by sector, 1990-2017.............................................. |
35 |
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3.3 |
Energy-related CO emissions by source, 1990-2017............................................. |
35 |
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3.4 |
Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers, 1990-2017.................................. |
36 |
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3.5 |
CO2 intensity in IEA member countries, 2016.......................................................... |
36 |
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3.6 |
Sweden’s non-ETS GHG emissions and targets, 1990-2040 ................................. |
38 |
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3.7 |
Energy and CO2 taxes on gasoline, 1985-2018....................................................... |
39 |
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3.8 |
TFC in transport, 1973-2017 .................................................................................... |
41 |
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3.9 |
Transport emissions 2006-17 and target for 2030................................................... |
42 |
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3.10 Breakdown of GHG emissions from transport by subsector, 2016.......................... |
42 |
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3.11 |
Filling stations for renewable transport fuels, 2005-17 ............................................ |
43 |
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3.12 |
Subsidies and fees in the bonus-malus system per emission level......................... |
45 |
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3.13 |
Monthly car registrations per engine type, May 2017 to Dec 2018 ......................... |
46 |
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3.14 |
Car fleet by weight, 2007 and 2017 ......................................................................... |
47 |
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3.15 The Swedish EV fleet, 2012-18................................................................................ |
48 |
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4.1 |
Energy demand and drivers, 1990-2017.................................................................. |
55 |
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4.2 |
Energy intensity in IEA member countries, 2016..................................................... |
56 |
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4.3 |
Energy intensity in selected IEA member countries, 1990-2016............................. |
57 |
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IEA. All rights reserved.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS |
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4.4 |
Energy intensity (TPES/GDP) 2005-17 and targets for 2020 and 2030.................. |
57 |
4.5 |
TFC in industry by source, 1973-2017..................................................................... |
58 |
4.6 |
Energy consumption in manufacturing industry by sector, 2017............................. |
59 |
4.7 |
TFC in residential and commercial sectors by source, 1973-2017.......................... |
60 |
4.8 |
Residential energy intensity, 2000-16...................................................................... |
60 |
4.9 |
Number of dwellings by type and period of construction ......................................... |
63 |
5.1 |
Energy consumption for heating in buildings by fuel, 1983-2016............................ |
68 |
5.2 |
Energy consumption for heating by fuel and building type, 2016............................ |
69 |
5.3 |
Heat pump installations in Sweden, 1982-2017....................................................... |
69 |
5.4 |
DH production by fuel, 1974-2016 ........................................................................... |
71 |
5.5 |
Breakdown of municipal waste by treatment method, 2016 .................................... |
71 |
5.6 |
Share of co-generation in DH and electricity generation, 1980-2017...................... |
72 |
5.7 |
District cooling supply, 1996-2016 ........................................................................... |
73 |
5.8 |
Average DH prices (nominal) in selected municipalities, 1996-2017 ...................... |
74 |
5.9 |
DH price development and annual price changes, 2001-17.................................... |
75 |
6.1 |
Government energy RD&D spending per GDP in IEA countries, 2017................... |
86 |
6.2 |
Public RD&I funding in Sweden ............................................................................... |
87 |
6.3 |
Government energy RD&D spending by category, 2008-17 ................................... |
87 |
6.4 |
Government energy RD&D spending and patent applications, 1995-2012............. |
88 |
7.1 |
Electricity supply by source, 2017............................................................................ |
93 |
7.2 |
Electricity supply and net trade, 1973-2017............................................................. |
94 |
7.3 |
Electricity generation by source in IEA member countries, 2017 ............................ |
95 |
7.4 |
Sweden’s electricity imports and exports by country, 1990-2017............................ |
96 |
7.5 |
Monthly electricity generation by source, Jan 2013 to May 2018............................ |
96 |
7.6 |
Electricity consumption by sector, 1973-2017 ......................................................... |
98 |
7.7 |
Green electricity certificates by energy source, 2004-17...................................... |
100 |
7.8 |
Electricity infrastructure in Sweden and in the Nordic/Baltic market area............ |
104 |
7.9Monthly spot electricity prices in the Nord Pool system and in Sweden by price
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area, 2013-18 ........................................................................................................ |
107 |
7.10 |
Electricity prices in IEA member countries, 2017.................................................. |
109 |
7.11 |
Electricity price trends in selected IEA member countries, 2007-17 .................... |
109 |
8.1 Nuclear power generation and share in electricity generation, 1973-2017 .......... |
117 |
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8.2Share of nuclear power in electricity generation in IEA member countries, 2017 118
8.3 |
NPPs in Sweden.................................................................................................... |
119 |
8.4 |
Energy availability factor of NPPs in Sweden and the OECD, 2000-17............... |
120 |
9.1 |
Share of oil in different energy supplies, 1977-2017 ............................................ |
131 |
9.2 |
Oil consumption by sector, 1973-2017.................................................................. |
132 |
9.3 |
Crude oil imports by country, 1973-2017 .............................................................. |
133 |
9.4 |
Oil product imports and exports by country, 1973-2017....................................... |
133 |
9.5 |
Liquid biofuels supply, 2013-17............................................................................. |
134 |
9.6 |
Map of Sweden’s oil infrastructure........................................................................ |
135 |
9.7 |
Refinery gross output and domestic consumption by product, 2016.................... |
136 |
9.8 |
Oil fuel prices in IEA member countries, second quarter 2018 ............................ |
137 |
10.1 |
Share of natural gas and biogas in different energy supplies, 2017 .................... |
141 |
10.2 Natural gas consumption by sector, 1985-2017 ................................................... |
142 |
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10.3 Breakdown of biogas production and consumption, 2017.................................... |
143 |
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10.4 |
Map of Sweden’s natural gas infrastructure.......................................................... |
145 |
10.5 |
Natural gas prices in IEA member countries, 2017 .............................................. |
147 |
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
IEA. All rights reserved.
TABLE OF CONTENTS |
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Tables |
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3.1 |
Reductions in energy and CO2 taxation by sector, 2018......................................... |
40 |
3.2 |
Energy and CO2 taxes by fuel, January and July 2018 (SEK/L) ............................. |
44 |
7.1 |
Installed generating capacity, 2000-17 (MW) .......................................................... |
97 |
7.2 |
Cross-border electricity connections, 2017........................................................... |
103 |
8.1 |
Nuclear reactors in Sweden .................................................................................. |
121 |
Boxes |
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3.1 |
The Swedish Pump Act............................................................................................ |
43 |
3.2 |
Electric roads in Sweden.......................................................................................... |
49 |
5.1 |
Support schemes for the conversion of oil and electric heating, 2006-10............... |
70 |
10
IEA. All rights reserved.
1. Executive summary
In many ways, Sweden is leading the way towards a low-carbon economy. Today, it has the second-lowest carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per gross domestic product (GDP) among the International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries (after Switzerland) and the second-lowest CO2 emissions per capita (after Mexico). In part, this follows from having the lowest share of fossil fuels in its primary energy supply among IEA members while remaining relatively energy-intensive. Space heating and electricity generation are already practically decarbonised. Another factor is that energy use is generally efficient, largely owing to the wide use of electricity and district heating (DH). Electricity use per capita is one of the highest in the world.
Sweden’s energy policy has for decades aimed to establish a sustainable energy system focused on energy efficiency and to switch from fossil fuels to domestic renewable energy. This policy has been very successful. Total primary energy supply (TPES) and total final consumption (TFC) of energy peaked late in the 20th century and have remained stable while the economy and the population have continued to grow. Electricity demand is increasing only slowly. The country is set to continue on the same path by improving energy efficiency and increasing renewable energy use from already high levels. In its energy market policy, the government aims to promote efficient and competitive markets to ensure a reliable energy supply at internationally competitive prices.
The 2016 Framework Agreement on Energy Policy
Sweden defined its current long-term energy policy goals in the 2016 Framework Agreement on Energy Policy (Energy Agreement). A large majority in the parliament, which represented both the government and the opposition, supported the Agreement. In June 2018, the parliament adopted the government’s bill of April 2018, based on the Energy Agreement. Prior to that, on 15 June 2017, the parliament had adopted the Climate Policy Framework, which related to Sweden’s new climate goals.
Within the 2016 Energy Agreement, Sweden set the target of a net zero-carbon economy by 2045. To achieve this, Sweden aims for a 100% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2040. This is a target; it is not a deadline for nuclear power, nor does it mean closing nuclear power plants through political decisions. Sweden also aims for a 50% decrease in energy intensity (TPES per GDP) from 2005 to 2030, and a 70% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector from 2010 to 2030. A progress report will be prepared every four years.
In the 2017 Climate Policy Framework, Sweden also set targets to reduce GHG emissions in the sectors not in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) by at least 63% by 2030 and at least 75% by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. However, current policies are not sufficient to bring about the long-term goal of decarbonisation,
11
ENERGY INSIGHTS
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