3. Energy, climate change and transport

Key data

(2017)

GHG emissions without LULUCF:* 52.7 MtCO2-eq, -26% since 1990 GHG emissions with LULUCF:* 8.9 MtCO2-eq, -76% since 1990

Energy-related CO2 emissions:

CO intensity per GDP:** 82.8 gCO /USD (IEA average 237 gCO /USD in 2016)

CO emissions from fuel combustion: 37.6 MtCO , -28% since 1990

CO emissions by fuel: oil 69.3%, coal 18.2%, natural gas 4.0%, other 8.5%

CO emissions by sector: transport 52.5%, power and heat generation 18.8%, industry 17.2%, other energy industries 7.2%, commercial 3.8%, residential 0.4%

Final energy consumption in transport: 8.2 Mtoe (oil 79.2%, biofuels 18.0%, electricity 2.6%, natural gas 0.2%), +1% since 2007

Exchange rates: Swedish kronor (SEK) 1 = USD 0.117 = EUR 0.104

*Land use, land-use change, and forestry. Source: SEPA (2018a).

**In USD 2010 PPP.

Overview

Sweden has managed to reduce its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in recent decades, while maintaining strong economic growth. In 2017, Sweden’s GHG emissions were 21% lower than in 2005 and 26% lower than in 1990 (without land use, land-use change, and forestry [LULUCF]). Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions represent the largest share of total GHG emissions. As a result of the decarbonisation of energy systems in Sweden, energy-related emissions have declined faster than the overall GHG emissions, and their share in total emissions decreased from 74% in 1990 to 71% in 2016 (Figure 3.1). Sweden’s CO2 tax has been an important driver for reducing emissions in the energy sector.

In 2017, the government decided on a new climate framework that stipulates national emission targets and a new climate law that obliges the government to take these targets into account when introducing policies. The long-term target is that Sweden should have zero-net emissions by 2045. With the climate framework in place, Sweden now needs to develop pathways to reach this ambitious target.

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ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION

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3. ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRANSPORT

The transport sector accounts for over half of total energy-related emissions, and the reduction in transport emissions has been slow compared to that in other sectors. As part of the climate framework, the government set the target to reduce transport emissions by at least 70% from 2010 to 2030. To achieve this very ambitious target, the government introduced several policies to support new low-emission vehicles as well as to introduce more biofuels in the fuel mix.

One major development in the transport sector is the growth in electric vehicles (EVs). Sweden has one of the highest shares of EVs in new car sales globally, which requires new infrastructure to support continued growth.

Figure 3.1 GHG emissions by sector, 1990 and 2016

From 1990 to 2016, total GHG emissions were reduced by 26%, with the largest decline in energy-related emissions.

* Energy includes emissions from transport and stationary combustion in different sectors.

Source: SEPA (2018a), National Inventory Report Sweden 2018, https://unfccc.int/documents/65685.

Energy-related CO2 emissions

The following sections focus on energy-related CO2 emissions, which account for the majority of GHG emissions.

CO2 emissions by sector and fuel

Sweden’s energy-related CO2 emissions fell rapidly in the late 1970s as oil use in electricity generation, industry and space heating was replaced with electricity from new nuclear power plants. In the following decades, emissions were relatively stable as declines in the residential and commercial sectors offset increases in transport. Since the early 2000s, emissions have declined across all the sectors, notably in industry, through the decreased use of fuel oil in pulp and paper industries (Figure 3.2). However, the decline has stalled in recent years, and emissions have remained stable since 2013.

In 2017, Sweden’s energy-related CO2 emissions were 38 million tonnes (Mt). The transport sector emitted 20 Mt, over half of the total emissions. Most of the rest were from heat and power generation, which accounted for 19% of the total emissions; manufacturing industry with 17%; and oil refineries with 7%. The commercial and residential sectors together represented just over 4% of the total emissions. This does not include indirect emissions from consumption of electricity and district heating.

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3. ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRANSPORT

Transport emissions have remained flat in the last five years as increased energy demand partly offset the gains from rapid growth in biofuels. Emissions from industry and from power and heat have fallen slightly in recent years, as a result of switching to higher shares of renewable energy. Sweden’s CO2 intensity in heat and power generation is the second lowest in the International Energy Agency (IEA) after Norway.

The dominance of transport emissions is reflected also in the share of emissions by fuel type (Figure 3.3). In 2017, oil accounted for 69% of the total CO2 emissions, followed by coal at 18%. However, emissions from oil decreased by 19% from 2007 and those from coal by 24%. Emissions from non-renewable waste in heat and power generation, however, has increased significantly. Natural gas accounts for only a few percentage points of total emissions and has declined in recent decades.

Figure 3.2 Energy-related CO emissions by sector, 1990-2017

Sweden has reduced its energy-related CO2 emissions across most sectors, but less so in the transport sector, which accounted for over half of total emissions in 2016.

* Other energy includes emissions from oil refineries and coke ovens.

** Industry includes CO emissions from combustion at construction and manufacturing industries. Emissions related to industry processes other than combustion are not included.

*** Commercial includes commercial and public services, agriculture/forestry and fishing.

Source: IEA (2019a forthcoming), CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2019 preliminary, www.iea.org/statistics/.

Figure 3.3 Energy-related CO emissions by source, 1990-2017

MtCO

70

Other*

60

Coal

50

Natural gas

40

Oil emits most energy-related CO2, as it dominates emissions from transport and industry.

* Other includes emissions from peat and non-renewable waste combustion.

Source: IEA (2019a forthcoming), CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2019, preliminary, www.iea.org/statistics/.

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3. ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRANSPORT

CO2 drivers and carbon intensity

Total CO2 emissions in a country are related to the size of the population, economic development, energy intensity of the economy, and carbon intensity of the energy supply, as per the equation: CO2 = population × GDP/capita × TPES/GDP × CO2/TPES (GDP = gross domestic product, TPES = total primary energy supply).

Between 1990 and 2017, Sweden’s GDP per capita increased by 51% and the population grew by 18%. Yet, Sweden managed to reduce its CO2 emissions by 28%, owing to a 41% drop in energy intensity of the economy and a 30% drop in the carbon intensity of the energy supply (Figure 3.4).

Figure 3.4 Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers, 1990-2017

Despite large economic growth per capita, Sweden has managed to reduce its energy-related CO2 emissions significantly.

Note: Real GDP in 2010 USD prices and purchasing power parity (PPP).

Source: IEA (2019a forthcoming), CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2019 preliminary, www.iea.org/statistics/.

In 2016, Sweden’s carbon intensity was 85 grammes of carbon dioxide (gCO2) per US dollar (USD) (2010 prices and PPP), the second lowest in the IEA after Switzerland (Figure 3.5). Sweden’s carbon intensity was half the IEA Europe average of 173 gCO2 per USD and much below the IEA average of 237 gCO2 per USD. In terms of CO2 emissions per capita, Sweden again ranks the second-lowest in the IEA, after Mexico.

Figure 3.5 CO2 intensity in IEA member countries, 2016

kgCO /USD (2010 PPP) 0.5 0.47

0.4

Sweden has the second-lowest CO intensity in the IEA, after Switzerland.

2

Source: IEA (2019a forthcoming), CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2019 preliminary, www.iea.org/statistics/.

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