2. GENERAL ENERGY POLICY

and by at least 75% in 2040 from 1990 values. It also includes a new 2030 target for the transport sector to reduce GHG emissions by 70% from 2010 to 2030. This is more realistic than the previous vision of a fossil-fuel-free transport fleet in 2030.

With the current policies, the total GHG emissions are projected to be 30% below the 1990 level by 2020 and 36% below it by 2030. Current policies are thus not sufficient to reach the long-term goal of decarbonisation, which highlights the need to develop roadmaps, set intermediate targets and design new policy initiatives.

2019 January Agreement

In January 2019, four parties in the Swedish parliament came to an agreement that led to the re-election of the government with the Social Democrats and Green Party. The January Agreement contained a list of 73 policy statements across different areas, which the new government has agreed to follow. The list includes actions on increasing the environmental taxation and a commitment to stop selling new cars that run on fossil gasoline or diesel after 2030. The January Agreement states further actions towards an expanded system for increasing the share of biofuels in the transport sector. This includes biofuels for aviation, increasing investments in production and distribution of biogas, and other infrastructure for fossil-free charging of vehicles. Moreover, during the Swedish Statement of Government Policy on 21 January 2019, the Government stated the commitment to the 2016 Energy Agreement and to the 2017 Climate Policy Framework.

Long-term scenarios

The SEA is tasked with developing energy scenarios and its latest long-term one dates from 2016. The reference scenario, the high GDP scenario and the high fossil prices scenario are all based on the European Commission's assumptions on future prices of fossil fuels and EU-ETS allowances. In addition, the SEA also prepared two scenarios on low electricity prices: the lower electricity price scenario and the lower electricity prices + 18 TWh scenario, which takes into account the extension and expansion of the electricity certificate system to 2030. The two low-price scenarios include lower prices for coal and natural gas as well as a lower price for EU-ETS allowances than the European Commission's assumptions. All the scenarios are based on the policies and measures that were valid in Sweden on 30 June 2016, that is, no assumptions were made on possible future policies.

Demand

In all scenarios, total demand (which here includes both the transformation sector and the final-use sectors) declines towards 2050 to 426-441 TWh (36.6-37.9 Mtoe) (Figure 2.7).

The highest demand is in the high GDP scenario and the lowest is in the high fossil prices scenario in which consumption is subdued by the high prices. However, the differences between the scenarios are small. Total demand declines mainly because of the closures of NPPs, which have high energy-conversion losses that are counted here as part of demand.

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ENERGY INSIGHTS

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