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The Office of Nuclear Regulation inspects licensees’ safety submissions throughout the lifecycle of nuclear reactors and other installations. The submissions must reflect internal and external hazards, which include the reasonably foreseeable effects of climate change over the lifetime of the facility as well as other factors such as coastal erosion, extreme weather, and flooding.

The applicants for authorisations for new offshore renewable energy plants are required to consider the potential impacts of climate change using the latest UK Climate Projections to ensure they have identified appropriate mitigation or adaptation measures.

Assessment

The United Kingdom is a global leader in climate change, as it both recognises the climate change threats and adopts policies to tackle the low-carbon investment challenge. The United Kingdom has a legally binding target, set by the 2008 Climate Change Act, to reduce GHG emissions by at least 80% by 2050 on 1990 levels and a world-class framework to achieve this target – via setting legally binding five-year caps on emissions (“carbon budgets”). This has served as an example to follow across the world.

The CPS rate has supported the switch from coal to gas and renewables in power generation. The government is providing longer-term certainty around strong carbon pricing. It decided to freeze the CPS rate until 2021 at the current level of GBP 18 and in October 2018 announced a carbon tax of 16 GBP/tCO2 in the event of a no-deal Brexit, as part of contingency plans to replace the EU ETS. Combined, emissions would be taxed at a fixed rate of 34 GBP/tCO2 in the United Kingdom.

The CFD and other support schemes have boosted investment in renewable energy and are a promising model to support nuclear generation. With major falls in the costs of renewable energy technologies, it has also led to a major growth in renewables. As a result of these developments, the United Kingdom has effectively decoupled GHG emissions from economic growth (except for transport).

The government is also to be praised for having met the 1st and 2nd carbon budgets and being on track to meet the 3rd budgets. The Clean Growth Strategy, adopted in October 2017, outlines proposals and measures across the economy to meet the 4th and the 5th carbon budgets, and identifies areas in which further actions will be needed. The devolved administrations of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales have also adopted ambitious policies and strategies to combat climate change, which will contribute to meeting the country’s target.

The Clean Growth Strategy rightly focuses on several key areas in which large emissions reductions are possible, including several “difficult to reach” sectors. The IEA particularly supports the government’s ambitions as regards decarbonising heat, accelerating the shift to low-carbon transport, and enhancing the energy efficiency of homes and businesses. The IEA also applauds the Clean Growth Strategy’s ambitious proposals to fund innovation.

Nevertheless, according to the assessment by the CCC, an independent advisory body, many of the proposed measures have delivery risks, and many more have not been fully confirmed yet. Since this assessment, the United Kingdom launched its CCUS Action

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Plan in November 2018. However, specific policies and measures in several key areas – heat and transport – are still under development, and some of the ongoing initiatives may be delayed. Therefore, there is some uncertainty as to whether the 4th and 5th carbon budgets will be met. The IEA urges the government to continue to translate the Clean Growth Strategy into firmer plans, funded measures, laws, and regulations to close the gap between the ambitious targets and the reductions likely to be achieved with the existing policies for heat and transport.

The carbon intensity of the power sector has strongly declined, thanks to the switch from coal to gas and renewables. Coal, once the mainstay of the UK energy supply, now supplies only about 7% of electricity generation. Between 2012 and 2017, the total coal consumption fell by over three-quarters, which was only 6% of the TPES in 2017. The CPF policy was a successful policy to reduce coal-fired generation, which, as a result became uneconomic relative to natural gas and renewables support. As part of the international “Powering Past Coal Alliance”, the government announced its policy to eliminate coal-fired generation without CO2 abatement by 1 October 2025. It is expected that most of the remaining 10 gigawatts of coal capacity will close well before that date. In January 2018, the government presented its response on “implementing the end of unabated coal by 2025”. The response sets out the government policy to limit the CO2 emissions intensity of a coal-fired power plant to less than 450 grammes per kilowatt hour, effective as of 1 October 2025. The government still needs to introduce the legislation to provide legal force to this policy.

The heat sector has a largely untapped decarbonisation potential. Coal and other solid fuels are still used in around 170 000 homes in the United Kingdom. In March 2018, the government presented detailed plans for the decarbonisation of the heating sector, notably plans to halt the installation of oil and coal heating systems from 2020 onwards in new constructed homes. Although there is uncertainty about the heat technology options in the long term, some measures can be taken today to reduce the heat sector’s carbon footprint. These include energy efficiency improvements in both existing and new buildings, and the encouragement of renewable heating and heat pumps in the buildings not connected to natural gas.

Reducing emissions from the transport sector is particularly challenging in all IEA countries, including in the United Kingdom where transport is the largest consumer of energy and the largest GHG emitter. The United Kingdom has made commendable commitments to phase out new conventional car and van sales by 2040, to have most cars and vans with zero emission by 2050, and has started an impressive programme to support EVs. The Clean Growth Strategy includes several other initiatives to improve efficiency and encourages cleaner fuels across the transport sector. In transport, the government published the Road to Zero Strategy in July 2018 with ambitious EV targets and commitments to support the infrastructure roll-out. The United Kingdom also hosted an international summit on ZEVs to encourage progress internationally. The government is encouraged to speed up the implementation of these initiatives.

CCUS has a clear position in the Clean Growth Strategy, as it could support decarbonisation, economic development, and future trade opportunities. The IEA welcomes the government’s ambition to deploy CCUS in the United Kingdom, subject to cost reduction, and the commitment to collaborate internationally and to invest in CCUS R&D. The United Kingdom is very active in R&D both nationally and in international CCUS pilot projects, including through its international CCUS Programme under the

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International Climate Fund and by hosting an international CCUS Summit in November 2018. The United Kingdom has mapped the CO2 storage potential of sites in the North and Irish Seas that appear particularly promising. The IEA calls upon the government to present a timely proposition for CCUS, based on advice from the CCUS Council, the CCUS Cost Challenge Taskforce, and international collaboration. This new CCUS proposition should clearly state the government’s vision for CCUS and the steps that need to be taken to realise its ambitions.

The government’s objective to cut emissions while ensuring the continuous competitiveness of the United Kingdom’s economy or avoiding excessive burden on households is commendable. Many measures – such as energy efficiency improvements and increased use of matured renewables technologies, such as onshore wind – can be cost-efficient and reduce cost to consumers. The IEA supports the government’s efforts to meet the climate targets through a cost-effective approach to boost decarbonisation. As low-carbon technologies evolve rapidly, it is important to evaluate regularly the relative costs and benefits of GHG mitigation measures and adjust the support frameworks, if needed, to stimulate the most cost-efficient solutions. An increased focus on cost-effectiveness is also one of the key recommendations of the CCC.

At the same time, the magnitude of the decarbonisation challenge and the significant investments needed to accelerate the transformation of the energy system still require government support. Support is needed to stimulate innovation and the development of new, breakthrough technologies, to reduce the costs and facilitate market deployment of existing immature technologies, and to raise awareness and change people’s behaviour. Therefore, it is important to continue measures that will have a longer-term transformational effect, even though they have costs. Engaging citizens is vital to ensure the necessary support to tackle the decarbonisation challenges.

Although the UK carbon targets are very ambitious, they could be reviewed by further building on the stocktaking process of the Paris Agreement. Building on its success in driving the global climate change agenda, the United Kingdom is well positioned to lead the world towards ambitious global GHG reductions. The government is therefore encouraged to continue to lead best-practise sharing and international collaboration with other countries on energy sector transformation and clean growth.

Recommendations

The UK government should:

Continue to translate the Clean Growth Strategy into laws, regulations, and funding to deliver the necessary emission reductions to meet the 4th and 5th carbon budgets.

Continue to evaluate and improve the framework for the cost-efficiency of mitigation measures.

Increase public awareness about the decarbonisation challenges, benefits, and cost implications.

Identify further opportunities for international collaboration to support the global clean energy transformation towards ambitious global emissions reductions.

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References

CCC (Committee on Climate Change) (2019a), Net Zero – The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming, London, https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp- content/uploads/2019/05/Net-Zero-The-UKs-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming.pdf

CCC (2019b), Carry-forward of surplus emissions: Letter from Lord Deben to Claire Perry, https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Letter-from-Lord-Deben-to-Claire- Perry-Surplus-emissions.pdf

CCC (2018a), An Independent Assessment of the UK’s Clean Growth Strategy: From Ambition to Action, London, www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/CCC- Independent-Assessment-of-UKs-Clean-Growth-Strategy-2018.pdf.

CCC (2018b), Reducing UK emissions 2018: Progress Report to Parliament, London, www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/CCC-2018-Progress-Report-to- Parliament.pdf.

CCC (2017), UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Synthesis Report: Priorities for the Next Five Years, London, www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA- 2017-Synthesis-Report-Committee-on-Climate-Change.pdf.

EAFO (European Alternative Fuels Observatory) (2019), United Kingdom, www.eafo.eu/countries/united-kingdom/1758/summary (accessed 24-01-2019).

ETI (Energy Technology Institute) (2017), Taking Stock of UK CO2 Storage, ETI Insights Report, Loughborough, www.eti.co.uk/insights/taking-stock-of-uk-co2-storage.

ETI, Pale Blue Dot, Costain and Axis (2016), Progressing Development of the UK’s Strategic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resource: A Summary of Results from the Strategic UK CO2 Storage Appraisal Project, https://s3-eu-west- 1.amazonaws.com/assets.eti.co.uk/legacyUploads/2016/04/D16-10113ETIS-WP6-Report- Publishable-Summary.pdf

IEA (International Energy Agency) (2019a), CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2018, Paris, www.iea.org/statistics/.

IEA (International Energy Agency) (2019b), World Energy Balances 2019 First edition (database), Paris, www.iea.org/statistics/.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), (2018), IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C, October. https://unfccc.int/topics/science/workstreams/cooperation-with-the-ipcc/ipcc-special-report- on-global-warming-of-15-degc

UK Government (2019), The future of UK carbon pricing, A joint consultation of the UK Government and Devolved Administrations, London, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_d ata/file/799573/THE_FUTURE_OF_UK_CARBON_PRICING.pdf

UK Government (2018a), UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2016, BEIS, London, https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/cat07/1804191054_ukghgi-90- 16_Main_Issue1.1_UNFCCC.pdf.

UK Government (2018b), Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2017, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), London, www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2017

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