3. ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Projections

The 2017 energy and emissions projections of the United Kingdom show that overall emissions by 2030 are projected to be 50% below 1990 levels in the reference case, which considers implemented, adopted, and agreed policies (UK Government, 2018b). However, as demonstrated in Figure 3.7, these projections are highly uncertain because societal/behavioural trends, breakthrough technologies or other factors could have profound impacts on the energy mix and emissions, but are impossible to fully predict.

Figure 3.7 Uncertainty in projected territorial emissions

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Emissions are projected to decline to around 350 MtCO2e by 2035.

Source: UK Government (2018b) Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2017, www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2017.

The UK government expects emissions in electricity generation to decline steadily (Figure 3.8) with the closure of coal plants, the growth in renewables in the power mix, and eventually thanks to new nuclear generation in the 2030s (with several plants expected under these projections). Increased imports (via interconnectors) are projected until new nuclear capacity comes online. Consequently, emissions from electricity production are projected to fall steadily over the full period to 2035 (BEIS, 2018).

Figure 3.8 CO2 emissions intensity from electricity supply forecast, 2017-35

Emissions intensity, 250 gCO2e/kWh

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The CO2 intensity of power generation is projected to fall rapidly from over 200 gCO2e/kWh in 2017 to around 50 gCO2e/kWh by 2035, which will contribute to overall emission reductions.

Source: BEIS (2018), Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2017, www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2017.

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