6. ENERGY AND CLIMATE

Institutions

Climate policy in Ireland is the responsibility of the Department for Communications, Climate Actions and Environment (DCCAE) with support from other government ministries and agencies. Policy co-ordination and implementation oversight is the responsibility of the High Level Climate Action Steering Group consisting of senior officials from all concerned government departments and agencies and chaired by the Minister of the DCCAE.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is a statutory public body responsible for implementing the EU Emissions Trading Directive in Ireland. It regularly publishes the national emissions inventory report.

A statutorily independent Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) was established in 2016 with its membership appointed by the government. It assembles eminent researchers on several subject areas and provides assessments and recommendations on the design and implementation of climate and clean energy policy.

Engagement among central and local government, civil society and the wider public will be underpinned by a structured process of dialogue and engagement through the National Dialogue on Climate Action, established by the government in 2017. This aims at a two-way flow of information and awareness building. Ireland has a high degree of social consensus on the need to move forward with climate action, and the dialogue is a means to create awareness and engagement at the local and regional levels.

Climate policy framework and targets

As an EU member state, Ireland’s climate policy is guided by the framework of the EU climate policies, the 2020 climate package and the 2030 climate framework. EU member states are jointly committed to reducing EU-wide GHG emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 and by at least 40% by 2030.

Emissions from power and heat generation and from large, energy-intensive industries are covered under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which represents around 45% of the total EU GHG emissions. The EU-wide target for emissions from ETS sectors is 21% below the 2005 level by 2020 and 43% by 2030, and is applicable to all EU member states (EC, 2018b).

Non-ETS emissions are those from the transport, residential and commercial sectors, from waste and agriculture, and from industry and commercial undertakings that are not included in the ETS. They are covered under the EU Effort Sharing Decision (ESD). The EU-wide targets for GHG reductions in the non-ETS sectors are 10% by 2020 and 30% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels. While the EU ETS target applies for the European Union as a whole, the emissions reduction targets for non-ETS sectors are set individually for each EU member state with binding annual targets for the period 2013-20.

Ireland has a target to achieve a 20% reduction in non-ETS sectors by 2020 and a target of a 30% reduction by 2030, both relative to 2005 levels of emissions (EC, 2018c). Ireland’s non-ETS target to 2020 is the highest of all EU member states, jointly with the targets for Denmark and Luxembourg.

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6. ENERGY AND CLIMATE

In 2016, 29% of Ireland’s total GHG emissions and 47% of its energy-related CO2 emissions were in the ETS (SEAI, 2018b). These are much smaller shares than the EU average. Ireland has the fourth-highest share of non-ETS emissions among EU member states due to its agricultural sector (EEA, 2017) and small ETS sector. The Irish agricultural sector accounted for 45.4% of total non-ETS emissions in 2016, compared to a share of 18% of non-ETS emissions for the European Union. Therefore, measures to mitigate emissions from non-ETS sectors are of critical importance for Ireland’s climate mitigation objectives.

Progress towards the climate targets

Ireland was able to meet its annual CO2-equivalent/GHG emissions targets in the nonETS sectors up to 2015. Emissions exceeded their annual binding level starting in 2016. Ireland still met its annual targets up to 2017 using the flexibility mechanisms provided for under the ESD. These allow banking of unused allowances in one year and counting them towards targets in future years and the trading of allowances among countries. Banked credits were exhausted from 2018 onwards. The government is preparing a purchase compliance strategy because, for 2018-20, Ireland’s cumulative emissions are expected to exceed the annual targets.

The EPA makes annual emissions projections (currently covering the period up to 2035) using two scenarios. In the latest projections published in May 2018, the scenario “with existing measures” took into account only those measures that were in place at the end of 2016, when the latest national GHG inventory was prepared. This was therefore the most conservative scenario. The scenario “with additional measures” assumes implementation of additional policies and measures including those set under the National Renewable Energy Action Plan and the fourth National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (see Chapter 7 on “Energy efficiency and residential heating”).

The latest projections made by the EPA show that Ireland will most likely exceed its compliance obligation to 2020 by a cumulative 17 MtCO2-eq under the “existing measures” scenario and by 16.3 MtCO2-eq under the “with additional measures” scenario (EPA, 2018a). These show that the proposed additional measures are not sufficient to change the emissions trajectory. The CCAC expressed concern about the pace and adequacy of government action in its 2018 annual report (CCAC, 2018).

Ireland is therefore not on course to meet its 2020 target; the same holds for its 2030 target of a 30% emissions reduction in non-ETS sectors. The EPA projects that based on the current trajectory, Ireland will exceed its carbon budget of 2030 by 47-53 MtCO2-eq (EPA, 2018a). This is even after utilising the full range of the broadened flexibility mechanism for the period to 2030: the use of 4% of ETS allowances and 5.6% of the credit from actions undertaken in the LULUCF sectors (EC, 2018b). The projected emissions trajectory is due to the anticipated economic growth and associated growth in energy demand.

The latest EPA projections under both scenarios did not take into consideration the impact of the policies contained in the National Development Plan (NDP) of 2018 and included only some of the policies and measures contained in the 2017 National Mitigation Plan (NMP). Therefore, Ireland may still achieve larger emissions reductions than projected by the EPA. The 2019 emissions projections are expected to offer a better indication of the possible achievements by 2020 and 2030.

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