4. NATURAL GAS

next decade, securing new indigenous sources or reliable imports is essential for Ireland’s future gas supply. Introducing liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an alternative import source and developing domestic renewable energy sources such as biogas could enhance the country’s gas security in the middle to long term.

Natural gas has become essential for power generation as an alternative to oil since the late 1990s, and accounted for more than half of the energy supply for electricity in 2017. Gas will remain the mainstay of Ireland’s security of supply (SoS) as the country accelerates its transition to a low-carbon energy system.

Supply and demand

Production and import

Ireland’s first domestic gas production was from the Kinsale Head gas field, located offshore of the south-east of Ireland in 1979. Kinsale Head production started to decline in the late 1990s, but this was partly offset by productions of other gas fields nearby: Ballycotton (1989), Southwest Kinsale (1999) and Seven Heads (2003).

Since the peak in domestic production at 2.8 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 1995, gas fields have been producing at an increasingly lower rate. Ireland has become more dependent on imports from the United Kingdom to meet its rising gas demand. Southwest Kinsale became depleted in the late 1990s, and was used as seasonal gas storage between 2001 and 2017. This left only three gas fields still operating in the south: Ballycotton, Kinsale Head and Seven Heads.

Figure 4.2 Natural gas supply by source, 1977-2017

Gas production from Corrib has made Ireland less dependent on gas imports from the United Kingdom.

Notes: Stock changes reflects the difference between closing stock level and opening stock level for stocks held on national territory.

Source: IEA (2018b), Natural Gas Information 2018, www.iea.org/statistics/.

The declining trend for Irish gas production changed with the opening of the Corrib gas field, located in the north-west of Ireland. It was discovered in 1996 and production started in late 2015. Corrib is estimated to represent approximately 50% of the size of the Kinsale Head field, and it has significantly changed the country’s balance of gas supply since 2016 (Figure 4.2).

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4. NATURAL GAS

In 2017, total gas supply was 5.2 bcm. Domestic production was 3.5 bcm, with Corrib field accounting for 95% and the rest from Kinsale Head and the nearby fields of Ballycotton, Southwest Kinsale and Seven Heads. Operation of the Corrib gas field allowed Ireland to reach the highest level of self-sufficiency at 67% since its first gas imports in 1995, which was followed by a constant drop of self-sufficiency down to a historical low of 3% in 2015.

The remaining 1.7 bcm of total gas supply in 2017 was imported from the United Kingdom through two interconnectors via the Moffat entry point in Scotland. The projection from Gas Networks Ireland (GNI), the Irish transmission system operator (TSO), indicates that imports through Moffat will replace Corrib and Inch as the dominant supply point from as early as 2018/19, and the share of gas imports will account for about 73% of Ireland’s total gas demand by 2025/26 (GNI, 2017), (Table 4.1).

Table 4.1 Ireland’s gas production outlook (maximum annual supply)

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

The anticipated decline in domestic gas production implies Ireland’s dependence on imports in the medium term.

*Inch refers to Kinsale gas fields: Kinsale Head, Ballycotton, Southwest Kinsale and Seven Heads.

**Renewable gas refers to energy from biomethane.

Note: The forecast is based on “gas year”, which starts on 1 October and ends on 30 September of the following calendar year. A terawatt (TW) is equal to one trillion (1012) watts. Power used world wide is commonly measured in TW. Gas production is commonly expressed in TW per hour (TWh) per year.

Source: GNI (2017), Network Development Plan 2017 – Assessing Future Demand and Supply Position, www.gasnetworks.ie/corporate/gas-regulation/system-operator/publications/GNI-Network-Development-Plan- 2017.pdf.

Consumption

In 2016, Ireland’s total gas consumption was 4.2 million tonnes of oil-equivalent (Mtoe) (5.2 bcm). This was slightly lower than its historical peak of 4.7 Mtoe (5.5 bcm) in 2010, but up 14% since 2014 when gas consumption started to pick up again (Figure 4.3). Power generation is the largest gas-consuming sector, accounting for 55.2% of the total consumption in 2016; the rest was from the industry (18%), residential (13.3%), commercial (10.8%) and other energy industries (2.7%) sectors.

Gas consumption increased by 49% in the commercial sector and 45% in industry from 2006 to 2016. Consumption declined in the power generation (3%) and residential sectors (10%). The sharp increase in total gas consumption since 2014 was driven by accelerated power generation. Gas demand for electricity jumped by 18% between 2014 and 2016 despite recent growth in wind power generation. This increase is attributed to growing domestic power demand to fuel the country’s recent economic recovery, and, to a lesser extent, the start of electricity exports to the United Kingdom due to the carbon price floor in 2015 (see Chapter 5 on “Electricity and renewable electricity”).

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1 Co-generation refers to the combined production of heat and power.

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