Table of contents
China Power System Transformation Assessing the benefit of optimised operations and advanced flexibility
options ...........................................................................................................................................................	1
Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................	1
Highlights..................................................................................................................................................	2
Executive summary ....................................................................................................................................	3
Findings and recommendations...................................................................................................................	6
Report context and objectives ...................................................................................................................................	6
Technical analysis ..........................................................................................................................................	23
Introduction.............................................................................................................................................	23
Context and status of power system transformation in China.......................................................................	26
Background.............................................................................................................................................................	26
Brief introduction to China’s power system..............................................................................................................	28
Emerging trends in system transformation in China.................................................................................................	37
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................	48
References ..............................................................................................................................................................	49
Power system transformation and flexibility ..............................................................................................	54
Three global trends in power systems ......................................................................................................................	54
Flexibility as the core concept of power system transformation ...............................................................................	60
Implications for centralised system resources ..........................................................................................................	68
Implications for DER................................................................................................................................................	79
References ..............................................................................................................................................................	87
Policy, market and regulatory frameworks for power system transformation................................................	90
Basic principles to unlock flexibility..........................................................................................................................	90
Wholesale market design ........................................................................................................................................	91
Retail markets and distributed energy resources....................................................................................................	110
Upgraded planning frameworks.............................................................................................................................	118
Transition mechanisms to facilitate system reforms ..............................................................................................	126
References ............................................................................................................................................................	130
Power system transformation pathways for China to 2035..........................................................................	134
General trends in China’s power system evolution .................................................................................................	134
Achieving a “Beautiful China” ................................................................................................................................	135
Key variables for system transformation................................................................................................................	136
Different power system pathways ..........................................................................................................................	137
Two main scenarios for 2035..................................................................................................................................	138
Power sector modelling results ..............................................................................................................................	144
Comparing basic features of the WEO 2018 NPS and SDS results...........................................................................	144
NPS modelling cases .............................................................................................................................................	145
SDS modelling cases .............................................................................................................................................	153
References ............................................................................................................................................................	170
Summary and conclusions........................................................................................................................	171
Power system transformation in China ...................................................................................................................	171
Options to facilitate implementation of the Document 9 reforms ...........................................................................	173
Innovative options to further accelerate progress towards a “Beautiful China” ........................................................	175
Additional considerations for markets, policies, regulation and planning.................................................................	177
International implications ......................................................................................................................................	179
References ............................................................................................................................................................	180
Annexes ................................................................................................................................................	181
Annex A Spatial disaggregation of national demand and supply.............................................................................	181
Generating hourly load profiles for each region......................................................................................................	184
Allocating generation capacity between regions....................................................................................................	185
Method used for calculating CAPEX savings...........................................................................................................	187
References ............................................................................................................................................................	187
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China Power System Transformation		Table of contents
Acronyms	..............................................................................................................................................		189
Acknowledgements, contributors and credits ...........................................................................................			192
Table of contents...................................................................................................................................................			194
List of figures
Figure 1.	Illustration of an interconnected energy system enabled by digitalisation ..............................................		7
Figure 2.	Overview of different power system flexibility resources........................................................................		9
Figure 3.	Three main pillars of system transformation ........................................................................................		11
Figure 4.	Capacity and generation mix for China in 2035, IEA WEO NPS and SDS................................................		13
Figure 5.	Operational costs, inflexible and flexible cases, NPS, 2035 ...................................................................		16
Figure 6.	Benefits and costs of different advanced power system flexibility options, SDS, 2035 ..........................		17
Figure 7.	Average auction price by project commissioning date for utility-scale wind and solar PV......................		55
Figure 8.	Share of VRE in global capacity growth and power generation growth, 2018–23 ..................................		55
Figure 9.	Illustration of an interconnected energy system enabled by digitalisation ............................................		57
Figure 10.	Global heat pump sales by technology, 2012–17 (left) and regional shares in 2017 (right)......................		59
Figure 11.	Impact of EVs on capacity credit of solar PV in Thailand, 2036..............................................................		60
Figure 12.	Overview of VRE system integration phases for different countries and selected provinces, 2017.........		62
Figure 13.	Different layers of system flexibility.....................................................................................................		65
Figure 14.	Impact of decentralisation and digitalisation on local power grids ........................................................		67
Figure 15.	Battery storage deployment by market region in the United States, 2017 .............................................		77
Figure 16.	Technical impacts of rising deployment of distributed solar PV generation ..........................................		85
Figure 17.	Overview of different building blocks of electricity markets .................................................................		93
Figure 18.	Monthly trading volumes on the German intraday market, 2012-16 .....................................................		95
Figure 19.	Developing the EU network codes .......................................................................................................		98
Figure 20.	Illustration of the LCOE and SV..........................................................................................................		104
Figure 21.	Links between the VRE cost, the SV and competitiveness..................................................................		105
Figure 22.	Options for retail pricing at different levels of granularity...................................................................		112
Figure 23.	Value components of local generation ................................................................................................		113
Figure 24.	Power generation by ownership, Mexico prior to reform, 2014............................................................		127
Figure 25.	Installed generation capacity under legacy contracts and share of demand, 2017-29..........................		129
Figure 26.	Energy access, electricity consumption and generation capacity, China, 1990–2016 ...........................		135
Figure 27.	Capacity and generation of wind and solar PV....................................................................................		136
Figure 28.	Capacity mix for China in 2035, NPS and SDS.....................................................................................		144
Figure 29.	Generation mix and curtailment rate in China, 2035, all NPS cases .....................................................		146
Figure 30.	Annual power system operational costs by cost category, 2035, NPS cases.........................................		147
Figure 31.	CO2 emissions and air pollutants, 2035, NPS cases..............................................................................		147
Figure 32.	Impact of moving to economic dispatch on coal power plant capacity factor, by region......................		148
Figure 33.	National level load and generation mix of a typical week, fair and economic dispatch ........................		149
Figure 34.	Impact of interregional trading and transmission expansion on coal-fired power plant utilisation,
	by region ...........................................................................................................................................		150
Figure 35.	Load and net import of energy by region, 2035, NPS cases .................................................................		151
Figure 36.	Generation mix and VRE curtailment rate in the NWR.........................................................................		153
Figure 37.	Annual operational cost savings from different flexibility options, 2035, SDS .....................................		154
Figure 38.	Annuitised net power system cost savings, relative to SDS-Inflex, all SDS cases.................................		155
Figure 39.	Annual CO2 emissions, 2035, SDS cases .............................................................................................		155
Figure 40.	Generation patterns and the demand profiles during high stress periods with limited flexibility options,
	SDS-Inflex case..................................................................................................................................		156
Figure 41.	Generation patterns and demand profiles during high-stress periods, SDS-DSR..................................		157
Figure 42.	VRE curtailment in SDS-Inflex and SDS-Storage cases, by region.......................................................		160
Figure 43.	Net load during peak demand periods in the SDS-Storage and SDS-Inflex cases ................................		160
Figure 44.	Demand reduction due to smart EV charging during periods of peak demand, SDS-EV case, 2035 .....		161
Figure 45.	VRE curtailment in SDS-EV and SDS-Inflex cases, by region...............................................................		162
Figure 46.	Generation patterns and demand profiles during high stress periods in SDS-EV case .........................		162
Figure 47.	Provision of upward ramping flexibility from different flexibility options before and after the
	introduction of EV smart charging .....................................................................................................		163
Figure 48.	VRE curtailment rate in SDS cases with smart EV charging and DSR, by region ..................................		165
Figure 49.	VRE curtailment rate in SDS cases with EV smart charging and storage, by region .............................		166
Figure 50.	Charging and discharging of storage alongside VRE generation during the period of minimum and peak
	net demand, with and without EV smart charging..............................................................................		166

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China Power System Transformation Table of contents

Figure 51.	Generation patterns and demand profiles during high-stress periods, SDS-Full flex case....................	167
Figure 52.	Demand reduction due to portfolio of flexibility measures during peak demand, 2035, SDS-Full Flex
case	168
Figure 53.	VRE curtailment by region, 2035, SDS-Inflex and SDS-Full flex...........................................................	169
Figure 54.	Modelling regions..............................................................................................................................	182
Figure 55.	Wind and solar potential in China.......................................................................................................	186

List of boxes

Box 1.	Lessons learnt from Document 5 round of reform ................................................................................	32
Box 2.	Energy conservation dispatch..............................................................................................................	35
Box 3.	Multi-energy complementary project in Gui’an ....................................................................................	43
Box 4.	Microgrid project in Suzhou.................................................................................................................	43
Box 5.	“Internet+” project in Guangdong........................................................................................................	44
Box 6.	Envision’s platform for the Internet of things .......................................................................................	44
Box 7.	DSR trial in Jiangsu (14:00-14:30, 26 July 2016) ....................................................................................	46
Box 8.	EV subsidy in China..............................................................................................................................	48
Box 9.	Improving flexibility parameters in legacy coal plants ..........................................................................	69
Box 10.	Flexible operation of solar PV ..............................................................................................................	71
Box 11.	DLR in the Snowy Region, Australia.....................................................................................................	73
Box 12.	Innovative use of existing PSH for integrating solar PV in Kyushu, Japan..............................................	75
Box 13.	Reducing the cost of ancillary services in Australia – the Hornsdale battery..........................................	76
Box 14.	V2G for frequency regulation...............................................................................................................	81
Box 15.	Battery storage for real-time balancing ...............................................................................................	83
Box 16.	Battery storage for balancing the distribution network ........................................................................	84
Box 17.	Pooling industry and battery storage in virtual power plants ................................................................	86
Box 18.	ETSs in China.....................................................................................................................................	109
Box 19.	The role of data exchange platforms in changing power systems ........................................................	115
Box 20.	PacifiCorp’s Integrated Resource Plan ...............................................................................................	119
Box 21.	Co-ordinated transmission network planning in Europe .....................................................................	122
Box 22.	Beyond 15% penetration: New technical DER interconnection screens for California..........................	124
Box 23.	Planning for local flexibility requirements ..........................................................................................	124
Box 24.	Key findings in WEO related to China’s power sector and global electrification...................................	138
Box 25.	Boosting the flexibility of aluminium smelters in China ......................................................................	158
Box 26.	Disaggregation of China’s electricity demand based on future regional development and
	environmental strategies ...................................................................................................................	184

List of tables

Table 1.	Selected key power sector indicators in China’s 13th Five-Year Plan.....................................................	40
Table 2.	DSR development in pilot cities ...........................................................................................................	45
Table 3.	Overview of differences between wind power and solar PV..................................................................	61
Table 4.	Summary of impacts associated with Phases 1 to 4 of system integration ............................................	63
Table 5.	Different timescales of power system flexibility ...................................................................................	64
Table 6.	Performance parameters per unit ........................................................................................................	70
Table 7.	Qualitative description of energy storage services in the power system ...............................................	74
Table 8.	Additional planning activities to integrate DER ..................................................................................	123
Table 9.	Case settings for the NPS analysis .....................................................................................................	140
Table 10.	Case settings for the SDS analysis......................................................................................................	143
Table 11.	Generation capacity in China, NPS and SDS WEO scenarios...............................................................	145
Table 12.	VRE curtailment rate by region ..........................................................................................................	152
Table 13.	Division of eight regions ....................................................................................................................	183
Table 14.	Transmission capacity (MW): existing and future assumed capacity ...................................................	183

PAGE | 196

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Table of contents

List of figures

List of boxes

List of tables