China Power System Transformation |
Annexes |
Annexes
Annex A. Spatial disaggregation of national demand and supply
Modelling regions and interconnections
The International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (WEO) model creates national results for both supply and demand. For this study, those results were further spatially disaggregated into eight regions for the detailed power system modelling. This disaggregation is a further refinement compared to previous WEO analyses (which feature six regions for China). It is also the first time that the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) has been spatially disaggregated. This refinement required three main analytical steps: 1) defining the modelling regions and setting regional transmission interconnection levels; 2) creating hourly load profiles for each region; and 3) allocating generation capacity regionally. These power system characteristics were then fed into the production cost model.
Defining modelling regions and regional interconnections
China’s power grid topology needs to be considered for the purpose of modelling the country’s power sector on a regional basis. Generally speaking, China has six major grid regions, i.e. Northeast, North Central, Northwest, East, Central and Southwest. Each region includes several provinces.
Reflecting the size and diversity of the country, major differences in resource availability, economic development, industrial structure and energy use are evident. These differences are not only present between the six power grid regions. Indeed, some of the provinces within one region show very large differences. Based on this fact, two regions were further disaggregated by separating one province from each. Firstly, Guangdong was separated from the rest of the Southwest region. Secondly, Shandong was separated from the North Central region.
Shandong in the north and Guangdong in the south have been separated as standalone regions in the modelling. The reasons for separating Guangdong from the Southwest region are:
The power generation mix has a high portion of coal power in Guangdong, while other provinces in the Southwest region are hydropower dominated.
Guangdong has a high percentage of power imports from other provinces, raising the importance of explicitly modelling the interconnections of the province.
Guangdong is likely to be the first province to have a spot market.
Guangdong is the most developed province in China, and its economy is more advanced than the other five provinces in the Southwest region.
Guangdong has a national-level strategy to change its economic structure, which will influence its power consumption.
The reasons for separating Shandong from the North Central region are:
The power generation mix is dominated by coal power, in contrast to the rest of the region.
Shandong has receiving terminals for several ultra-high-voltage lines to import energy from the Northwest, Inner Mongolia and Northeast.
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China Power System Transformation |
Annexes |
Shandong is also one of the spot market pilot provinces.
Shandong is a crucial province in respect of alleviating air pollution and curbing overcapacity.
Shandong is one of the most developed provinces in China.
Shandong has a national-level strategy to shift from heavy industry to light industry, which will influence its power consumption.
The eight regions are shown in Figure 54. Their constituent provinces and acronyms in the modelling are shown in Table 13.
Figure 54. Modelling regions
The different regions are also crucial for setting transmission capacity levels. Under the current administrative planning arrangements for interregional transmission (see Chapter 2 for more detailed information), cross-regional transmission capacity has not been fully utilised – some are substantively underutilised. Therefore, enhancing transmission has two layers: increasing the utilisation rate of existing transmission capacity by eliminating the barriers to regional trading; and investing more in transmission capacity in the future.
In terms of utilisation, the modelling scenarios feature two different settings. Under a constrained utilisation, the utilisation level of transmission lines corresponds to the level reported by the China Electricity Council (CEC) for 2017. This constraint is lifted in some cases, allowing for the optimised use of transmission capacity.
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China Power System Transformation Annexes
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Table 13. |
Division of eight regions |
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Region |
Acronym |
Constituent provinces |
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Northwest |
NWR |
Gansu, Shaanxi, Tibet, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Qinghai |
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North Central |
NCR |
Beijing, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Tianjin |
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Shandong |
NSR |
Shandong |
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Northeast |
NER |
Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning |
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Central |
CR |
Henan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Hunan, Sichuan |
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Eastern |
ER |
Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian, Zhejiang |
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Southwest |
SWR |
Guangxi, Guizhou, Hainan, Yunnan |
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Guangdong |
SGR |
Guangdong |
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In terms of investment, existing transmission capacity includes incumbent interconnectors and the newly planned ultra-high-voltage transmission lines, which are due to finish construction by 2022 and hence to be treated as existing lines by the target year 2035 (State Council, 2018a; see Table 14). Additional investments to 2035 are based on a possible build-out trajectory of about 200 GW of transmission capacity in total, particularly in the corridors from the regions with high VRE capacity; the numbers presented represent estimates.
Table 14. Transmission capacity (MW): existing and future assumed capacity
Region |
CR |
ER |
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NCR |
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NER |
NSR |
NWR |
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CR |
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41 000 |
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11 000 |
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5 000** |
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26 000 |
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115 000** |
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ER |
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12 000 |
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8 000** |
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7 500 |
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6 000 |
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112 000** |
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NCR |
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24 500 |
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41 500 |
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12 500 |
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NER |
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7 000** |
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NSR |
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31 000 |
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NWR |
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SGR |
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SWR |
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** Numbers show sum of existing, planned and assumed future expansion transmission capacity. Note: MW = megawatt.
Creating regional electricity demand profiles
SGR SWR
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5 000 |
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17 500 |
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37 000
Electricity demand in China in 2035 has been estimated using the World Energy Model (WEM). On the demand side, the model covers the residential, services, agricultural, industrial and transport sectors, and can estimate yearly electricity demand and hourly load curve by end use (IEA, 2017). National electricity demand for 2035 and underlying assumptions are consistent with WEO 2018 analysis for both the New Policies Scenario (NPS) and the SDS (IEA, 2018). For this report, additional input variables were collected and analysis was conducted to be able to break down electricity demand for the eight modelled regions. This was achieved by disaggregating detailed load profiles for each end use.
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