
- •Abstract
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Actions to boost flexibility and investment
- •Modelling analyses
- •Spot markets and trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •International implications
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Report context and objectives
- •Drivers of change in power systems
- •Rapid growth of wind and solar PV
- •Power system flexibility
- •Phases of VRE integration
- •Priority areas for system transformation
- •Modelling approach
- •Spot markets and regional trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •Investment certainty
- •Renewable energy policy
- •Market design and planning
- •Wholesale market design
- •Retail market design
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •International implications
- •Technical analysis
- •Introduction
- •Context and status of power system transformation in China
- •Background
- •Economically shifting gears
- •Ecological civilisation
- •Power system transformation
- •Brief introduction to China’s power system
- •Current status of power system in China
- •General perspective
- •How the power system works in China
- •Historical evolution
- •Power sector reform in 2015
- •Challenges in China’s power sector
- •Planning
- •Interprovincial and interregional trading
- •Dispatching order
- •Benchmark pricing system
- •Renewable development and integration
- •Emerging trends in system transformation in China
- •Introducing flexible market operation
- •Establishing spot markets
- •Incremental distribution grid pilots
- •Unlocking the retail side
- •Power plant flexibility pilots
- •Realising optimised planning
- •Five-year plan
- •Long-term strategy
- •Technological innovation and electrification
- •Distributed energy
- •Multi-energy projects, microgrids and “Internet+” smart energy
- •Digitalisation
- •Demand-side management/demand-side response
- •Electricity storage
- •EV development
- •Clean winter heating programme
- •Summary
- •References
- •Power system transformation and flexibility
- •Three global trends in power systems
- •Low-cost wind power and solar photovoltaics
- •Digitalisation
- •Rise of DER
- •Distributed solar PV
- •Electricity-based clean heating
- •Implications for power systems
- •Flexibility as the core concept of power system transformation
- •Properties of VRE generators
- •Phases of system integration
- •Different timescales of system flexibility
- •Layers of system flexibility
- •Redefining the role of system resources
- •Differentiating energy volume and energy option contributions
- •Evolving grids
- •From passive demand to load shaping
- •Implications for centralised system resources
- •Operational regime shifts for thermal assets
- •Matching VRE to system requirements
- •Increasing need for advanced grid solutions
- •Deploying advanced grid solutions
- •Multiple deployment opportunities for large-scale storage
- •Optimising the use of PSH
- •Embracing the versatility of grid-scale batteries
- •Synthetic fuels and other long-term storage options
- •Large-scale load shaping
- •Industrial demand response
- •Efficient industry electrification
- •Implications for DER
- •System benefits of energy efficiency
- •Mobilising the load through EVs
- •Targeting energy efficiency for system flexibility
- •Engaging distributed battery storage
- •Distributed generation for system services
- •Aggregation for load shaping
- •References
- •Policy, market and regulatory frameworks for power system transformation
- •Basic principles to unlock flexibility
- •Wholesale market design
- •General setup
- •Short-term markets (minutes to hours)
- •Medium-term markets (month to three years)
- •Long-term investment market (three years and beyond)
- •Economic dispatch and rapid trading
- •Cross-regional trade of electricity
- •Benefits of regional power system integration
- •Centralised versus decentralised models of integration
- •Market integration in the European Union
- •Market organisation
- •Attracting investment in low-carbon generation capacity
- •SV as a key concept for renewable and low-carbon energy development
- •System-friendly VRE deployment
- •German market premium system
- •Mexican clean energy and capacity auctions
- •Pricing of externalities
- •Impact of CO2 pricing on daily and long-term operations in the power market
- •Policy packages and interactions
- •Electricity sector design
- •Retail markets and distributed energy resources
- •Retail pricing reform
- •Degrees of granularity for retail tariffs
- •Compensating DER
- •Implications for general policy design
- •Revisiting roles and responsibilities
- •The DSO-TSO interface
- •Aggregators
- •Role of ISOs
- •Centralised and decentralised platforms for DER engagement
- •Elements of structural reform
- •Policy principles for DER
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •Integrated planning incorporating demand-side resources
- •Integrated generation and network planning
- •Integrated planning between the power sector and other sectors
- •Interregional planning
- •Including system flexibility assessments in long-term planning
- •Planning for distribution grids
- •Improved screening/study techniques
- •Including local flexibility requirements in planning techniques
- •Policy principles for planning and infrastructure
- •Transition mechanisms to facilitate system reforms
- •Mexico’s legacy contracts for the regulated supplier
- •Transition from the public service regime
- •Transition from the private-party regime (self-supply)
- •Treatment of “stranded costs” in the United States
- •References
- •Power system transformation pathways for China to 2035
- •General trends in China’s power system evolution
- •Achieving a “Beautiful China”
- •Key variables for system transformation
- •Different power system pathways
- •Two main scenarios for 2035
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the NPS
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the SDS
- •Description of power system model used for analysis
- •Power sector modelling results
- •Comparing basic features of the WEO 2018 NPS and SDS results
- •NPS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of results
- •Value of moving from fair dispatch to economic dispatch
- •Value of unlocking interregional trading
- •A closer look at VRE-rich regions
- •SDS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of the results
- •Understanding an SDS power system without advanced flexibility options: SDS-Inflex
- •Assessing individual flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of DSR deployment: SDS-DSR
- •Understanding the value of electricity storage: SDS-Storage
- •Understanding the value of smart EV charging: SDS-EV
- •Assessing portfolios of flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of DSR and EVs: SDS-DSR+EV
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of storage and EVs: SDS-Storage+EV
- •Understanding the value of a combined portfolio of smart EV charging, DSR and storage: SDS-Full flex
- •Summary
- •References
- •Summary and conclusions
- •Power system transformation in China
- •China has already embarked on its own pathway to power system optimisation.
- •Integrating variable renewable energy and an orderly reduction of coal power will be the primary challenges for successful power system optimisation.
- •Power system flexibility will become the most important attribute of a transformed power system.
- •Different layers of the power system need to be addressed in order to achieve system transformation successfully.
- •The alignment and integration of different policies and measures in the power sector and related sectors are pivotal to long-term success.
- •Optimising the dispatch of power plants is a fundamental prerequisite for reducing power generation costs and preserving VRE investability.
- •Creating short-term markets and robust short-term price signals can greatly facilitate power system transformation and reduce system-wide energy prices.
- •The optimised use of existing and soon-to-be-built transmission lines can substantially reduce renewable energy curtailment and integrate additional wind and solar capacity.
- •Optimising power system operation is bound to trigger the market exit of inefficient coal generators; this process is likely to need active management.
- •Innovative options to further accelerate progress towards a “Beautiful China”
- •Optimised use of demand-shaping techniques is critical to unlock very high shares of renewable energy cost-effectively.
- •Electric mobility has great potential for integrating renewable energy, but only if charging patterns are optimised.
- •Applying digital technologies to the distribution grid and at the customer level can unlock additional flexibility and is an opportunity for economic development.
- •Additional considerations for markets, policies, regulation and planning
- •Advanced renewable energy policies can minimise integration challenges.
- •Advanced design of wholesale markets, including markets for system services, is an important tool to accelerate power system transformation.
- •Changes to electricity tariffs could help optimise the deployment and use of distributed energy resources (DER).
- •Integrated long-term planning that includes demand shaping and advanced options for energy storage is a crucial foundation for a successful transformation of the power system.
- •International implications
- •Accelerated progress on power sector optimisation could bring substantial benefits for China and the world.
- •References
- •Annexes
- •Annex A. Spatial disaggregation of national demand and supply
- •Modelling regions and interconnections
- •Defining modelling regions and regional interconnections
- •Creating regional electricity demand profiles
- •Generating hourly load profiles for each region
- •Allocating generation capacity between regions
- •Method used for calculating CAPEX savings
- •References
- •Acronyms
- •Acknowledgements, contributors and credits
- •Table of contents
- •List of figures
- •List of boxes
- •List of tables
China Power System Transformation |
Summary and conclusions |
and distribution grid planning will be an important task to contain such costs and promote VRE integration.
The modelling conducted for this report underlines the point. In the SDS, smart charging of EVs helps to achieve USD 2 billion in fuel cost savings, 79 TWh of reduced VRE curtailment (reducing curtailment from 5% to 3%), and avoided emissions totalling 115 Mt of CO2, 0.4 Mt of SOx, 2 898 Mt of NOx and 196 272 Mt of PM2.5.
However, these benefits require policy makers to take action to be realised. For example, daytime charging is only possible if chargers are indeed available at work or at shopping centres. Moreover, the regulatory system needs to allow for the implementation of smart charging and pass on (part of) the benefits of smart charging to make it commercially attractive.
Applying digital technologies to the distribution grid and at the customer level can unlock additional flexibility and is an opportunity for economic development.
China is a global leader in the use of digital technologies and innovative software products. These technologies have the potential to play a substantial role in shaping electricity demand dynamically to better match consumption with available supply. They also hold the promise of improving service offerings to consumers via improved analysis and automated control of electricity consumption.
The analysis conducted for this report shows the benefits that advanced digital sensors and controls bring to the power system by unlocking demand-side response, especially in the commercial and residential sectors. All of the 300 GW of demand contributing to response capacity present in the SDS is enabled via digital technologies.
Unlocking this potential in practice requires action along technical, economic and institutional dimensions. Technically, agreed standards need to ensure the smooth interoperability of technical solutions. Economically, reform of retail electricity prices and allowing distributed resources access to wholesale market trading are the most important factors. Institutionally, measures to promote independent actors and establishment of effective short-term markets are the most important priorities to unlock these resources, along with addressing cyber security considerations.
Additional considerations for markets, policies, regulation and planning
Advanced renewable energy policies can minimise integration challenges.
Traditionally, policies to support renewable energy do so by providing appropriate investment conditions, such as sufficiently high and certain remuneration alongside streamlined planning and approval procedures. However, as the share of renewable energy grows on the system, the interactions between renewables and the broader electricity systems need to be considered in the design of renewable energy policies. This usually becomes evident via the emergence of “hotspots” of VRE deployment, where penetration levels are much higher than the national average and integration challenges become significant.
An initial approach to this issue is the geographic and technological diversification of VRE deployment. A variety of measures can achieve this, such as limiting permits for new installations in certain regions, differentiating remuneration levels regionally or by time of production, or giving specific incentives for smaller-scale installations – China has implemented
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China Power System Transformation |
Summary and conclusions |
a number of these options in the past years. However, there are additional possibilities to enhance the system integration of renewables by use of deployment policies. As explained in detail in this report, the fundamental idea behind such approaches is to maximise the value of VRE for the power system.
Electricity has more or less economic value depending on where, when and how it is produced. It is most valuable at times when demand levels approach the limits of available generation and (depending on the exact conditions on the grid) when it is generated close to demand. In addition, if a power plant can provide system services, it will also be more valuable compared to a plant that cannot provide such services. Of course, VRE generators cannot influence how much wind and sunshine is available at given times and places. However, it is possible to build VRE plants in different locations and optimise their design to maximise the value of the VRE fleet. Price signals can play a decisive role in incentivising VRE generators to design and operate plants in a more system-friendly way.
Spot markets can be a very useful tool for providing appropriate signals to VRE developers and operators. By exposing VRE plants to the varying prices on the spot market, they can be encouraged to build power plants that generate as much as possible at times and in places where electricity is valuable – and where prices are higher than average. However, such approaches need to strike a balance between creating such an incentive for system-friendly deployment while also providing sufficient investment certainty. Different forms of financial hedging arrangements and/or market premiums can achieve this objective.
Advanced design of wholesale markets, including markets for system services, is an important tool to accelerate power system transformation.
Establishing a basic spot market that allows for short-term trade across large geographic regions is a fundamental tool for co-ordinating the operation of diverse power system assets, both renewable and conventional. Many countries have further refined and enhanced such markets to optimise the operation of their power system. Measures focus on moving gate closure closer to production times (e.g. via shorter trading windows in intraday markets), improving markets for system services and establishing capacity remuneration mechanisms.
Growing shares of VRE increase the importance of tools to balance supply and demand at short timescales. These include measures to balance forecast errors a few hours before real-time operation, large changes in output that occur over a few hours to minutes and rapid fluctuations from minutes to seconds. In addition, new measures can be required to ensure system stability to withstand disturbances such as the loss of a large generator or transmission line. In some cases, new services may need to be defined and remunerated, such as the ability to respond very quickly to frequency changes (fast frequency response).
Reforms are also crucial for unlocking the participation of new providers of such system services, notably demand-side response and storage providers. They usually include changing prequalification requirements (allowing smaller units to participate, reducing the minimum time that resources need to guarantee the service and procuring resources closer to real time). In addition, changing product definitions can lead to optimised outcomes. For example, separating downward and upward reserve provision can help the entry of new players: demand response can often reduce demand most easily at short notice (providing upward reserves) and VRE can more easily and economically provide downward reserves (by reducing its output).
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