Power sector modelling results

Comparing basic features of the WEO 2018 NPS and SDS results

This section describes basic input assumptions and power sector results from the WEO 2018 NPS and SDS for China in 2035.

The NPS in 2035 results in total national net electricity generation of 9 835 TWh.47 This pathway includes policies to contain electricity demand growth and address environmental challenges. The scenario assumes a moderate carbon price of USD 30 (United States dollars) per tonne (t). Fuel prices vary between USD 63/t and USD 94/t for coal and are fixed at USD 13 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for natural gas (reflecting transport costs, see Annex A for details). The NPS features a 60% share for non-fossil capacity; 39% is from wind and solar PV. This translates into a generation share of up to 48% for non-fossil energy; 21% is from wind and solar PV.

The SDS exhibits a number of differences compared to the NPS. The SDS employs a mix of lowcarbon options to achieve sustainable development objectives, including nuclear power and CCS. Most importantly, the scenario features a much higher share of variable renewable energy. At a national level, total net electricity generation grows to 8 996 TWh in 2035 – this is about 800 TWh less than in the NPS. This pathway includes more ambitious policies to contain electricity demand growth and address environmental challenges relative to the NPS. Compared to the NPS, it considers additional electricity demand arising from higher levels of electrification of end uses, for example due to larger numbers of EVs.

Figure 28. Capacity mix for China in 2035, NPS and SDS

The SDS introduces a greater share of power from renewables and a lower share from fossil fuel technologies compared to the NPS.