China Power System Transformation Power system transformation pathways for China to 2035

Note: A total of 43 GW of PSH capacity is assumed in all scenarios to account for existing and soon-to-be-commissioned capacity.

Three single-option and three multi-option cases are compared to an inflexible scenario in order to assess the benefits of using advanced flexibility options in a largely decarbonised Chinese power system in 2035.

Description of power system model used for analysis

The modelling presented in this study builds on several years of previous developments, inlcuding as part of the World Energy Outlook. Since 2017, the World Energy Model has a regional model of China. For this report, a further refinement and additional details in modelling the Chinese power system were implemented.

The PLEXOS® production cost modelling software is used to simulate the operation of the Chinese system for the different NPS and SDS cases in 2035. The production cost model, which represents China as eight different regions, includes supplyand demand-side components in addition to interregional transmission and the relevant constraints thereof. On the supply side, generators are modelled in terms of both technical characteristics (e.g. ramp rates, minimum stable levels, minimum up/down times) and economic characteristics (e.g. fuel prices, O&M costs and carbon costs). In addition, must-run generation, including China’s significant cogeneration fleet, is represented with specific operating constraints, while hydropower generation includes plants as either run-of-river (both with and without daily pondage), large reservoir or PSH. Seasonality is included for both hydropower availability and must-run constraints on co-generation in district heating regions.

Meanwhile, a representation of regional demand in China in 2035 is also modelled, comprised of different end-use profiles that allow for the modelling of DSR based on the potential of each end use. Operational reserves (spinning and regulatory) are also considered.

The primary outputs from the modelling are system operation profiles of the various power plants, overall system costs and emissions. These are presented in detail for both the NPS and the SDS in the following sections. This model is the most detailed representation of the Chinese power system that the IEA has implemented to date. Further details of the modelling methodology are presented in Annex A.