
- •Abstract
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Actions to boost flexibility and investment
- •Modelling analyses
- •Spot markets and trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •International implications
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Report context and objectives
- •Drivers of change in power systems
- •Rapid growth of wind and solar PV
- •Power system flexibility
- •Phases of VRE integration
- •Priority areas for system transformation
- •Modelling approach
- •Spot markets and regional trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •Investment certainty
- •Renewable energy policy
- •Market design and planning
- •Wholesale market design
- •Retail market design
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •International implications
- •Technical analysis
- •Introduction
- •Context and status of power system transformation in China
- •Background
- •Economically shifting gears
- •Ecological civilisation
- •Power system transformation
- •Brief introduction to China’s power system
- •Current status of power system in China
- •General perspective
- •How the power system works in China
- •Historical evolution
- •Power sector reform in 2015
- •Challenges in China’s power sector
- •Planning
- •Interprovincial and interregional trading
- •Dispatching order
- •Benchmark pricing system
- •Renewable development and integration
- •Emerging trends in system transformation in China
- •Introducing flexible market operation
- •Establishing spot markets
- •Incremental distribution grid pilots
- •Unlocking the retail side
- •Power plant flexibility pilots
- •Realising optimised planning
- •Five-year plan
- •Long-term strategy
- •Technological innovation and electrification
- •Distributed energy
- •Multi-energy projects, microgrids and “Internet+” smart energy
- •Digitalisation
- •Demand-side management/demand-side response
- •Electricity storage
- •EV development
- •Clean winter heating programme
- •Summary
- •References
- •Power system transformation and flexibility
- •Three global trends in power systems
- •Low-cost wind power and solar photovoltaics
- •Digitalisation
- •Rise of DER
- •Distributed solar PV
- •Electricity-based clean heating
- •Implications for power systems
- •Flexibility as the core concept of power system transformation
- •Properties of VRE generators
- •Phases of system integration
- •Different timescales of system flexibility
- •Layers of system flexibility
- •Redefining the role of system resources
- •Differentiating energy volume and energy option contributions
- •Evolving grids
- •From passive demand to load shaping
- •Implications for centralised system resources
- •Operational regime shifts for thermal assets
- •Matching VRE to system requirements
- •Increasing need for advanced grid solutions
- •Deploying advanced grid solutions
- •Multiple deployment opportunities for large-scale storage
- •Optimising the use of PSH
- •Embracing the versatility of grid-scale batteries
- •Synthetic fuels and other long-term storage options
- •Large-scale load shaping
- •Industrial demand response
- •Efficient industry electrification
- •Implications for DER
- •System benefits of energy efficiency
- •Mobilising the load through EVs
- •Targeting energy efficiency for system flexibility
- •Engaging distributed battery storage
- •Distributed generation for system services
- •Aggregation for load shaping
- •References
- •Policy, market and regulatory frameworks for power system transformation
- •Basic principles to unlock flexibility
- •Wholesale market design
- •General setup
- •Short-term markets (minutes to hours)
- •Medium-term markets (month to three years)
- •Long-term investment market (three years and beyond)
- •Economic dispatch and rapid trading
- •Cross-regional trade of electricity
- •Benefits of regional power system integration
- •Centralised versus decentralised models of integration
- •Market integration in the European Union
- •Market organisation
- •Attracting investment in low-carbon generation capacity
- •SV as a key concept for renewable and low-carbon energy development
- •System-friendly VRE deployment
- •German market premium system
- •Mexican clean energy and capacity auctions
- •Pricing of externalities
- •Impact of CO2 pricing on daily and long-term operations in the power market
- •Policy packages and interactions
- •Electricity sector design
- •Retail markets and distributed energy resources
- •Retail pricing reform
- •Degrees of granularity for retail tariffs
- •Compensating DER
- •Implications for general policy design
- •Revisiting roles and responsibilities
- •The DSO-TSO interface
- •Aggregators
- •Role of ISOs
- •Centralised and decentralised platforms for DER engagement
- •Elements of structural reform
- •Policy principles for DER
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •Integrated planning incorporating demand-side resources
- •Integrated generation and network planning
- •Integrated planning between the power sector and other sectors
- •Interregional planning
- •Including system flexibility assessments in long-term planning
- •Planning for distribution grids
- •Improved screening/study techniques
- •Including local flexibility requirements in planning techniques
- •Policy principles for planning and infrastructure
- •Transition mechanisms to facilitate system reforms
- •Mexico’s legacy contracts for the regulated supplier
- •Transition from the public service regime
- •Transition from the private-party regime (self-supply)
- •Treatment of “stranded costs” in the United States
- •References
- •Power system transformation pathways for China to 2035
- •General trends in China’s power system evolution
- •Achieving a “Beautiful China”
- •Key variables for system transformation
- •Different power system pathways
- •Two main scenarios for 2035
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the NPS
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the SDS
- •Description of power system model used for analysis
- •Power sector modelling results
- •Comparing basic features of the WEO 2018 NPS and SDS results
- •NPS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of results
- •Value of moving from fair dispatch to economic dispatch
- •Value of unlocking interregional trading
- •A closer look at VRE-rich regions
- •SDS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of the results
- •Understanding an SDS power system without advanced flexibility options: SDS-Inflex
- •Assessing individual flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of DSR deployment: SDS-DSR
- •Understanding the value of electricity storage: SDS-Storage
- •Understanding the value of smart EV charging: SDS-EV
- •Assessing portfolios of flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of DSR and EVs: SDS-DSR+EV
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of storage and EVs: SDS-Storage+EV
- •Understanding the value of a combined portfolio of smart EV charging, DSR and storage: SDS-Full flex
- •Summary
- •References
- •Summary and conclusions
- •Power system transformation in China
- •China has already embarked on its own pathway to power system optimisation.
- •Integrating variable renewable energy and an orderly reduction of coal power will be the primary challenges for successful power system optimisation.
- •Power system flexibility will become the most important attribute of a transformed power system.
- •Different layers of the power system need to be addressed in order to achieve system transformation successfully.
- •The alignment and integration of different policies and measures in the power sector and related sectors are pivotal to long-term success.
- •Optimising the dispatch of power plants is a fundamental prerequisite for reducing power generation costs and preserving VRE investability.
- •Creating short-term markets and robust short-term price signals can greatly facilitate power system transformation and reduce system-wide energy prices.
- •The optimised use of existing and soon-to-be-built transmission lines can substantially reduce renewable energy curtailment and integrate additional wind and solar capacity.
- •Optimising power system operation is bound to trigger the market exit of inefficient coal generators; this process is likely to need active management.
- •Innovative options to further accelerate progress towards a “Beautiful China”
- •Optimised use of demand-shaping techniques is critical to unlock very high shares of renewable energy cost-effectively.
- •Electric mobility has great potential for integrating renewable energy, but only if charging patterns are optimised.
- •Applying digital technologies to the distribution grid and at the customer level can unlock additional flexibility and is an opportunity for economic development.
- •Additional considerations for markets, policies, regulation and planning
- •Advanced renewable energy policies can minimise integration challenges.
- •Advanced design of wholesale markets, including markets for system services, is an important tool to accelerate power system transformation.
- •Changes to electricity tariffs could help optimise the deployment and use of distributed energy resources (DER).
- •Integrated long-term planning that includes demand shaping and advanced options for energy storage is a crucial foundation for a successful transformation of the power system.
- •International implications
- •Accelerated progress on power sector optimisation could bring substantial benefits for China and the world.
- •References
- •Annexes
- •Annex A. Spatial disaggregation of national demand and supply
- •Modelling regions and interconnections
- •Defining modelling regions and regional interconnections
- •Creating regional electricity demand profiles
- •Generating hourly load profiles for each region
- •Allocating generation capacity between regions
- •Method used for calculating CAPEX savings
- •References
- •Acronyms
- •Acknowledgements, contributors and credits
- •Table of contents
- •List of figures
- •List of boxes
- •List of tables
China Power System Transformation |
Policy, market and regulatory frameworks for power system transformation |
different resources contribute to system flexibility. Additionally, competing uses such as irrigation, land use and environmental conservation should be accounted for in long-term planning.
Require flexibility in new assets through regulation and network codes: Requiring the submission of non-wire alternative plans, specific flexibility capabilities for new builds, the installation of monitoring equipment and the inclusion of flexibility in interconnection contracts will help embed flexibility in system transformation.
Enable flexibility investments through innovative regulation: Reviewing cost recovery methodologies, introducing requirements for non-wire alternative proposals in regulated infrastructure expansion plans and partial appropriation of additional savings are some of the options available to TSOs and DSOs to deploy DER.
Encourage and co-ordinate the reallocation of institutional roles: Regardless of the decision to separate system operation from transmission, or to enable distribution system operation, policy makers should facilitate dialogue between various system actors on a level playing field. Depending on context, this may range from providing communication platforms to reviewing the regulated monopolies’ organisational and budgetary structures.
Improve visibility and bidirectional information sharing: The shift towards a decentralised power system means that at higher levels of distributed generation, power may start flowing back to the transmission grids. Having an overview of installed DER and expected generation may help system operators reduce costs of redispatch and network reconfiguration.
Transition mechanisms to facilitate system reforms
Most transitions from a centrally planned power system to one relying on market mechanisms require consideration of how the old system will be phased out and the new one implemented. A smooth transition requires special instruments and mechanisms. Although there are no two examples with the same transition instruments (because they respond to each country’s power sector circumstances), a number of examples that provide interesting insights are given below.
Mexico’s legacy contracts for the regulated supplier
Mexico is a good example of transition from a predominantly vertically integrated utility to a competitive wholesale market. Prior to the reform the country’s generation was managed through three main legal regimes (as shown in Figure 24 below):
plants owned and operated by Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), the vertically integrated utility
independent power producers (IPPs) selling power exclusively to CFE
an additional regime in place for consumers on self-supply, which allowed for wheeling between different points of the transmission grid.
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China Power System Transformation |
Policy, market and regulatory frameworks for power system transformation |
Figure 24. Power generation by ownership, Mexico prior to reform, 2014
GW
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Public service (CFE) |
Public service (IPP) Private parties (self-supply) |
Others |
Total |
Note: GW = gigawatt.
Source: SENER (2014), Informe Pormenorizado del Desempeño y las Tendencias de la Industria Eléctrica, Detailed Reporto n Performance and Trencs in the Electricity Industry, https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/150564/Informe_desempe_o_y_tendencias_de_la_Industria_Electrica_2014_FINAL_2.pdf.
As of 2014, with 61% of installed capacity owned and operated by CFE, and 18.5% selling exclusively to CFE (IPP), it was crucial to design a transition mechanism that would guarantee revenue certainty and security of supply.
Transition to a competitive market was underpinned by three basic principles:
protecting end consumers from price increases
respecting existing legal rights and contractual terms with existing generators
fostering shortand medium-term efficiency.
Transition from the public service regime
On the demand side prior to reform most consumers, representing 84% of the load, were served through CFE’s public electricity service. Following the transition this activity was unbundled into a subsidiary, hereafter called CFE Retail, dedicated exclusively to regulated retail sale of power. In contrast to the previous model, end consumers were now allowed to opt out from the regulated retail service.
In order to ensure low-cost supply for CFE’s regulated retail clients in the short term, CFE Retail was assigned a least-cost portfolio of economically efficient IPPand CFE-owned generators. The selection exercise rewarded plants with positive net present value of their anticipated economic benefit. For this calculation, cash flows were calculated using the margin between the expected local marginal price for the plant and their fixed and variable operational costs. An additional benchmarking step was implemented to ensure cost-effectiveness. This applied to power generation units that had passed the screening based on net present value, but whose contracted payment was above international standards.
In order to account for the three principles mentioned above, specific contracts with particular features were designed for each generator type:
CFE-vesting contracts: These contracts applied to generators owned by CFE, which were unbundled into a number of separate generation subsidiaries. The duration of these contracts was fixed for the number of years in which these plants were expected to be on the money, a shorter time period than each plant’s remaining lifetime.
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Policy, market and regulatory frameworks for power system transformation |
For thermal plants, the contracts were structured as “call” options, giving CFE Retail the right to purchase CFE-vested output when the contract price was below the wholesale price. This reinforced the principle of end-consumer protection.
A number of provisions were included to ensure shortand medium-term efficiency:
Contracted prices reduce the generator’s incentive to strategically curtail output.
Contracted prices incentivise generators to further optimise their plants, as they are allowed to keep output beyond the contractual quantity or higher margins resulting from efficiency gains.
For thermal generators, the contract does not provide any incentive to keep inefficient power generation units, as the contract allows them to replace their units for ones that are more efficient and keep the extra margins.
CFE Retail is obliged to purchase all the output from renewable technologies. However, VRE plants are free to sell any excess energy output resulting from repowering to any other market participant.44
Lastly, one of the key features to ensure a smooth transition was providing a gradual phase-out of vesting contracts to competitive procurement. For this reason, vested contract duration was limited to the year that net present value was maximised, thus phasing out older inefficient plants first. Additionally CFE Retail was now able to fully or partially shed any contracted overcapacity, starting with the oldest CFE-vesting plants in the portfolio, meaning that there is no demand risk for the retailer.
IPP-vesting contracts: The key feature in these was to respect the initial contractual terms and provide revenue certainty for these generators. As part of CFE’s unbundling, a special subsidiary was created to handle their contracts and represent these plants in the market. The main advantage of this was not to create an offtaker risk. The new subsidiary has a similar legal status to its parent company, CFE Holding, a state-owned enterprise with the implicit backing of the Mexican government. This means it cannot go bankrupt except in the case of an explicit government decision.
As most of these IPP contracts concerned combined cycling plants, one particular feature was addressed with the new contracts. Contracted combined-cycle gas turbine IPPs rely on a synthetic output offer curve that covers three feasible discrete output levels. This created issues on both sides: generators were at a disadvantage if they were dispatched at a point where the stylised offer curve fell below actual production costs or at an infeasible output level. CFE, by contrast, could face a loss in the wholesale market if it was purchasing output at a price level above the actual production costs. The new market rules allow for generation compensation that reflects actual production costs.
Under this transition mechanism, any increase in contracted capacity in the future must be procured by CFE Retail through competitive auction processes. The actual and anticipated gradual decline in capacity under legacy contracts, and their share of maximum demand, can be seen in Figure 25.
44 In this case, repowering refers to replacing older units with newer ones with better performance.
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