
- •Abstract
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Actions to boost flexibility and investment
- •Modelling analyses
- •Spot markets and trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •International implications
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Report context and objectives
- •Drivers of change in power systems
- •Rapid growth of wind and solar PV
- •Power system flexibility
- •Phases of VRE integration
- •Priority areas for system transformation
- •Modelling approach
- •Spot markets and regional trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •Investment certainty
- •Renewable energy policy
- •Market design and planning
- •Wholesale market design
- •Retail market design
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •International implications
- •Technical analysis
- •Introduction
- •Context and status of power system transformation in China
- •Background
- •Economically shifting gears
- •Ecological civilisation
- •Power system transformation
- •Brief introduction to China’s power system
- •Current status of power system in China
- •General perspective
- •How the power system works in China
- •Historical evolution
- •Power sector reform in 2015
- •Challenges in China’s power sector
- •Planning
- •Interprovincial and interregional trading
- •Dispatching order
- •Benchmark pricing system
- •Renewable development and integration
- •Emerging trends in system transformation in China
- •Introducing flexible market operation
- •Establishing spot markets
- •Incremental distribution grid pilots
- •Unlocking the retail side
- •Power plant flexibility pilots
- •Realising optimised planning
- •Five-year plan
- •Long-term strategy
- •Technological innovation and electrification
- •Distributed energy
- •Multi-energy projects, microgrids and “Internet+” smart energy
- •Digitalisation
- •Demand-side management/demand-side response
- •Electricity storage
- •EV development
- •Clean winter heating programme
- •Summary
- •References
- •Power system transformation and flexibility
- •Three global trends in power systems
- •Low-cost wind power and solar photovoltaics
- •Digitalisation
- •Rise of DER
- •Distributed solar PV
- •Electricity-based clean heating
- •Implications for power systems
- •Flexibility as the core concept of power system transformation
- •Properties of VRE generators
- •Phases of system integration
- •Different timescales of system flexibility
- •Layers of system flexibility
- •Redefining the role of system resources
- •Differentiating energy volume and energy option contributions
- •Evolving grids
- •From passive demand to load shaping
- •Implications for centralised system resources
- •Operational regime shifts for thermal assets
- •Matching VRE to system requirements
- •Increasing need for advanced grid solutions
- •Deploying advanced grid solutions
- •Multiple deployment opportunities for large-scale storage
- •Optimising the use of PSH
- •Embracing the versatility of grid-scale batteries
- •Synthetic fuels and other long-term storage options
- •Large-scale load shaping
- •Industrial demand response
- •Efficient industry electrification
- •Implications for DER
- •System benefits of energy efficiency
- •Mobilising the load through EVs
- •Targeting energy efficiency for system flexibility
- •Engaging distributed battery storage
- •Distributed generation for system services
- •Aggregation for load shaping
- •References
- •Policy, market and regulatory frameworks for power system transformation
- •Basic principles to unlock flexibility
- •Wholesale market design
- •General setup
- •Short-term markets (minutes to hours)
- •Medium-term markets (month to three years)
- •Long-term investment market (three years and beyond)
- •Economic dispatch and rapid trading
- •Cross-regional trade of electricity
- •Benefits of regional power system integration
- •Centralised versus decentralised models of integration
- •Market integration in the European Union
- •Market organisation
- •Attracting investment in low-carbon generation capacity
- •SV as a key concept for renewable and low-carbon energy development
- •System-friendly VRE deployment
- •German market premium system
- •Mexican clean energy and capacity auctions
- •Pricing of externalities
- •Impact of CO2 pricing on daily and long-term operations in the power market
- •Policy packages and interactions
- •Electricity sector design
- •Retail markets and distributed energy resources
- •Retail pricing reform
- •Degrees of granularity for retail tariffs
- •Compensating DER
- •Implications for general policy design
- •Revisiting roles and responsibilities
- •The DSO-TSO interface
- •Aggregators
- •Role of ISOs
- •Centralised and decentralised platforms for DER engagement
- •Elements of structural reform
- •Policy principles for DER
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •Integrated planning incorporating demand-side resources
- •Integrated generation and network planning
- •Integrated planning between the power sector and other sectors
- •Interregional planning
- •Including system flexibility assessments in long-term planning
- •Planning for distribution grids
- •Improved screening/study techniques
- •Including local flexibility requirements in planning techniques
- •Policy principles for planning and infrastructure
- •Transition mechanisms to facilitate system reforms
- •Mexico’s legacy contracts for the regulated supplier
- •Transition from the public service regime
- •Transition from the private-party regime (self-supply)
- •Treatment of “stranded costs” in the United States
- •References
- •Power system transformation pathways for China to 2035
- •General trends in China’s power system evolution
- •Achieving a “Beautiful China”
- •Key variables for system transformation
- •Different power system pathways
- •Two main scenarios for 2035
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the NPS
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the SDS
- •Description of power system model used for analysis
- •Power sector modelling results
- •Comparing basic features of the WEO 2018 NPS and SDS results
- •NPS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of results
- •Value of moving from fair dispatch to economic dispatch
- •Value of unlocking interregional trading
- •A closer look at VRE-rich regions
- •SDS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of the results
- •Understanding an SDS power system without advanced flexibility options: SDS-Inflex
- •Assessing individual flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of DSR deployment: SDS-DSR
- •Understanding the value of electricity storage: SDS-Storage
- •Understanding the value of smart EV charging: SDS-EV
- •Assessing portfolios of flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of DSR and EVs: SDS-DSR+EV
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of storage and EVs: SDS-Storage+EV
- •Understanding the value of a combined portfolio of smart EV charging, DSR and storage: SDS-Full flex
- •Summary
- •References
- •Summary and conclusions
- •Power system transformation in China
- •China has already embarked on its own pathway to power system optimisation.
- •Integrating variable renewable energy and an orderly reduction of coal power will be the primary challenges for successful power system optimisation.
- •Power system flexibility will become the most important attribute of a transformed power system.
- •Different layers of the power system need to be addressed in order to achieve system transformation successfully.
- •The alignment and integration of different policies and measures in the power sector and related sectors are pivotal to long-term success.
- •Optimising the dispatch of power plants is a fundamental prerequisite for reducing power generation costs and preserving VRE investability.
- •Creating short-term markets and robust short-term price signals can greatly facilitate power system transformation and reduce system-wide energy prices.
- •The optimised use of existing and soon-to-be-built transmission lines can substantially reduce renewable energy curtailment and integrate additional wind and solar capacity.
- •Optimising power system operation is bound to trigger the market exit of inefficient coal generators; this process is likely to need active management.
- •Innovative options to further accelerate progress towards a “Beautiful China”
- •Optimised use of demand-shaping techniques is critical to unlock very high shares of renewable energy cost-effectively.
- •Electric mobility has great potential for integrating renewable energy, but only if charging patterns are optimised.
- •Applying digital technologies to the distribution grid and at the customer level can unlock additional flexibility and is an opportunity for economic development.
- •Additional considerations for markets, policies, regulation and planning
- •Advanced renewable energy policies can minimise integration challenges.
- •Advanced design of wholesale markets, including markets for system services, is an important tool to accelerate power system transformation.
- •Changes to electricity tariffs could help optimise the deployment and use of distributed energy resources (DER).
- •Integrated long-term planning that includes demand shaping and advanced options for energy storage is a crucial foundation for a successful transformation of the power system.
- •International implications
- •Accelerated progress on power sector optimisation could bring substantial benefits for China and the world.
- •References
- •Annexes
- •Annex A. Spatial disaggregation of national demand and supply
- •Modelling regions and interconnections
- •Defining modelling regions and regional interconnections
- •Creating regional electricity demand profiles
- •Generating hourly load profiles for each region
- •Allocating generation capacity between regions
- •Method used for calculating CAPEX savings
- •References
- •Acronyms
- •Acknowledgements, contributors and credits
- •Table of contents
- •List of figures
- •List of boxes
- •List of tables

China Power System Transformation |
Context and status of power system transformation in China |
Five-year plans allow for some flexibility, as they can be adjusted in the middle of their duration; for example, the 13th Five-Year Plan starts its evaluation and adjustment process at the end of 2018 (NEA, 2018e).
Long-term strategy
The five-year plan is seen as a medium-term planning instrument. The Chinese government has also started to consider long-term planning for the energy sector. The “Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy” released in 2016 served as broad guidance for all the energy five-year plans and policies (NDRC and NEA, 2016d). The document focused on four areas: energy consumption, supply, technology and institutions, with the latter incorporating the need for international energy co-operation. The overarching aim was to realise a more secure, sustainable, diverse and efficient energy future (IEA, 2017a). There is no long-term strategy document specifically for the power sector, but key targets in the 2016 strategy could provide guidance to the power sector:
total primary energy consumption to be kept below 6 000 Mt of coal equivalent
share of non-fossil fuels to reach around 20% in the energy mix
incremental energy demand to be met mainly by clean energy
energy intensity to reach current global average levels
share of non-fossil fuel power generation in total power generation strives to reach 50%
share of ultra-low-polluting coal-fired power plants to be more than 80% of the fleet
recall climate change commitments: to lower CO emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65% by 2030 from 2005 levels; CO2 emissions to peak around 2030 and strive to peak sooner.
Technological innovation and electrification
Distributed energy
It was not until this decade that distributed energy joined the fast lane, especially natural gas, PV and wind power.12 Since 2010 the NDRC and other governmental departments have issued policies on these three distributed sources and others.
Development of China’s distributed natural gas (DNG) projects dates back to the late 1990s. Since 2003, China began to build distributed energy stations,13 including several DNG stations, such as projects for the Beijing Gas building, Shanghai Pudong International Airport and the Central Hospital in Shanghai’s Huangpu district. Over the past ten years the Chinese government has continued to promote the development of distributed energy, with roughly 120 completed DNG projects in China at the end of 2015, having an installed capacity of about 1.4 GW.
Principal users of DNG include industrial parks, commercial complexes, data centres, schools, office buildings, integrated parks and thermal power plants. These users are relatively large and have a continuous demand for cooling, heating and power. Projects that supply energy for these users account for 97% of total installed capacity and account for 72.5% by number. Industrial parks have a relatively high installed capacity, making up 67.7% of the total, with
12This section follows Prospects for Distributed Energy Systems in China (IEA, 2017c).
13Distributed energy stations are small-scale energy supply projects specifically applied to commercial buildings, airports, industrial parks, etc. They can provide electricity, heating and cooling.
Page | 41
IEA. All rights reserved
China Power System Transformation |
Context and status of power system transformation in China |
schools contributing 12.2% and commercial building complexes 6.5%. In China, projects for cooling, heating and power in buildings and district cooling, heating and power each make up approximately half of the DNG projects. Because parks of various kinds and commercial complexes have a stable demand for electricity, cooling and steam, power is mainly provided by gas turbines or by combined-cycle gas turbines. Hospitals, schools, hotels and office buildings have a smaller and less stable demand, so power is mainly supplied by gas turbines and gas microturbines.
Distributed PV capacity is increasing at a faster pace than utility-scale PV (IEA, 2018b). In 2016 newly installed capacity increased by 200% year-on-year. Distributed PV power generation enjoyed very strong growth in the Central and Eastern regions. Provinces that topped the list were Zhejiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui and Jiangxi. Distributed PV is expected to grow more quickly in the coming years because:
Newly released policies allow distributed generation owners to use some energy for their own consumption and sell excess generation to on-site consumers. Commercial and industrial projects become economically attractive at high levels of self-consumption, as the retail price is high.
The administrative hurdles preventing generators from selling power to multiple consumers connected to the same substation were lifted, hence increasing the client base for distributed generators, enabling them to diversify revenues and reduce risk.
Distributed wind power was encouraged in China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. Some inland regions have begun to utilise local resources to plan for wind power development, bringing new opportunities for small and medium-sized wind power investment enterprises.
Multi-energy projects, microgrids and “Internet+” smart energy
Recent years have seen the development of China’s industrial parks, the popularisation of microgrids and new energy power generation, and the constant upgrading of investment models. While initial efforts focused on technology, finding suitable economic arrangements and business models have more recently been receiving equal attention. In 2016 the NEA started the construction of integrated projects that combine multiple complementary energy sources, as one of the key measures of establishing “Internet+” smart energy systems. In late 2016, the NEA announced the first batch of 23 demonstration projects using “multi-energy” complementary energy sources and integrated optimisation.
Most of the demonstration projects are integrated energy supply systems for end users. Their designs and planning processes are now completed. However, because of programme complexity and other reasons, some are not yet in operation. Notably, demonstration programmes, such as large-scale comprehensive energy stations in cities, had appeared before the concept of integrating different energy sources was even put forward. These projects are also good examples of distributed gas turbine and energy cascade utilisation.
The integration of different energy sources can provide a flexible solution for meeting the energy needs of commercial and industrial complexes. While flexibility within an industrial complex is profitable for enterprises, this flexibility also improves the security and stability of China’s energy supply for the wider grid. With the prospect of extensive new energy consumption, this flexibility can decrease the peak load requirement and support the frequency regulation of power grids.
PAGE | 42
IEA. All rights reserved

China Power System Transformation |
Context and status of power system transformation in China |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Box 3. Multi-energy complementary project in Gui’an
A project combining complementary energy resources, located in Gui’an city, Guizhou province, provides heating, hot water, cooling and electricity services to a total building area of about 500 000 square metres (m2). The project uses a combination of natural gas with three other energy resources: a water-based heat pump, solar thermal and compressed air energy storage. The project design gives priority to the supply of heating services, and the system usually operates off-grid, but can rely on the grid when needed. The power generation capacity is 2.8 megawatts (MW), cooling capacity is 15 165 kilowatts (kW), and heating capacity is 13 304 kW. Compared with a conventional central air-conditioning system and boiler heating system, the installed capacity for cooling is reduced overall by about 45-55%, and the installed power capacity reduced by about 30 MW. Compared with split system air conditioners, the installed capacity can be reduced by about 70 MW. In the near future, Gui’an city plans to set up ten similar distributed energy stations and a smart energy management centre to meet the energy needs of a 43 square kilometre science park.
Source: People.cn (2017), “1+3” [The First Combining Complementary Energy Resource Finished in Gui’an City].
Box 4. Microgrid project in Suzhou
The microgrid project, developed by GCL in Suzhou city, Jiangsu province, is a national renewables-based microgrid demonstration project in China. The microgrid aims to integrate six energy systems based on solar PV, gas-fuelled co-generation, wind energy, low-grade heat supplied by ground source heat pumps, and solar thermal, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and energy storage. The area of construction of the first phase was 19 515 m2.
The energy load of the office buildings from electricity, air conditioning and hot water is estimated to total 1 000 kW, about half that of traditional centralised energy systems. The rooftop solar PV can provide 350 kW of installed electricity capacity, and natural gas 400 kW for electricity and 400 kW for heating and cooling services. The project is also integrated with multiple technologies, including a 100 kW energy storage system, a wind and solar combined system, EVs, microgrid and LEDs. The buildings can achieve more than 50% energy selfsufficiency with more than 30% energy savings. Primary energy is converted in a cost-effective and efficient way to meet end-use needs from lighting, motors, appliances, air conditioners, heating, hot water and steam. This leads to savings in energy investment of 30%, a reduction in energy consumption of 40%, improvement in energy efficiency of 40% and reductions in emissions of more than 50%.
The core benefit of GCL’s offering comes from integrating a variety of energy sources with various characteristics to construct a microgrid system. This allows an optimal use of these various energy sources by meeting end-use needs with electricity, cooling, heating, steam and other energy products. This helps improve overall energy efficiency, reduces the total cost of energy consumption, achieves emissions reduction and protects the environment.
Page | 43
IEA. All rights reserved

China Power System Transformation |
Context and status of power system transformation in China |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Box 5. “Internet+” project in Guangdong
In 2017 CSG built its first smart energy demonstration project in Guangzhou. The project aims to integrate four networks: electricity, Internet, television and telephone. The project district covers a total of 21 buildings with around 1 450 households. The composite low-voltage fibre combines optical and power cables. Integrating four operators’ networks makes the interaction of power flows and information flows feasible, supporting energy data transmission and intelligent home management. Digitalisation of meters for electricity, water and gas is central to the project. With the support of a centralised collection system and the fibre cable, meter reading in a building can be completed remotely in ten seconds. This significantly improves the accuracy and efficiency of metering. At the same time, the system can conduct remote fault diagnosis and control in real time in order to control system losses and ensure intelligent management of electricity, water and gas meters.
The data recording system can provide detailed time series data for household appliances, including lighting, refrigerators, televisions and air conditioners. This will facilitate big-data analysis of consumer demand. Based on four networks and three meters, integrating with distributed energy, charging facilities, intelligent homes and intelligent communities – as well as constructing big data on electricity, water and gas consumption – it is possible to have a better understanding of consumer behaviour and spending. Furthermore, this project can be extended to other smart home applications and also manufacturing applications. It is likely that energy consumption of manufacturing equipment can also be optimised in response to energy structure and production requirements.
Digitalisation
A principal advantage of digitally enabled connectivity-based business models is the ability to collect and analyse large amounts of data and to optimise the use of a vast number of assets accordingly. China is already seeing practical applications of this model.
Box 6. Envision’s platform for the Internet of things
Envision Energy is a large Chinese wind turbine manufacturer that in September 2016 launched a data platform based on the Internet of things called EnOS. It connects and manages various devices related to energy generation, consumption, storage, transmission and distribution through cloud computing and big-data analytics. The objective is to make energy devices operate collaboratively at the level of each household, each community and even each city. Such optimisation can reduce power generation investment, monitor and manage load, and achieve supply-demand balance in response to market dynamics.
The main benefit of this platform is its close integration and optimisation among different components of the entire energy system. It thus allows for the concrete application of the principles of smart distributed energy sources. The platform has already been commercially implemented by utilities and other energy companies.
Source: Envision (2017), “EnOS platform for internet of things”, www.envision-energy.com/energy-os/.
PAGE | 44
IEA. All rights reserved