
- •Abstract
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Actions to boost flexibility and investment
- •Modelling analyses
- •Spot markets and trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •International implications
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Report context and objectives
- •Drivers of change in power systems
- •Rapid growth of wind and solar PV
- •Power system flexibility
- •Phases of VRE integration
- •Priority areas for system transformation
- •Modelling approach
- •Spot markets and regional trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •Investment certainty
- •Renewable energy policy
- •Market design and planning
- •Wholesale market design
- •Retail market design
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •International implications
- •Technical analysis
- •Introduction
- •Context and status of power system transformation in China
- •Background
- •Economically shifting gears
- •Ecological civilisation
- •Power system transformation
- •Brief introduction to China’s power system
- •Current status of power system in China
- •General perspective
- •How the power system works in China
- •Historical evolution
- •Power sector reform in 2015
- •Challenges in China’s power sector
- •Planning
- •Interprovincial and interregional trading
- •Dispatching order
- •Benchmark pricing system
- •Renewable development and integration
- •Emerging trends in system transformation in China
- •Introducing flexible market operation
- •Establishing spot markets
- •Incremental distribution grid pilots
- •Unlocking the retail side
- •Power plant flexibility pilots
- •Realising optimised planning
- •Five-year plan
- •Long-term strategy
- •Technological innovation and electrification
- •Distributed energy
- •Multi-energy projects, microgrids and “Internet+” smart energy
- •Digitalisation
- •Demand-side management/demand-side response
- •Electricity storage
- •EV development
- •Clean winter heating programme
- •Summary
- •References
- •Power system transformation and flexibility
- •Three global trends in power systems
- •Low-cost wind power and solar photovoltaics
- •Digitalisation
- •Rise of DER
- •Distributed solar PV
- •Electricity-based clean heating
- •Implications for power systems
- •Flexibility as the core concept of power system transformation
- •Properties of VRE generators
- •Phases of system integration
- •Different timescales of system flexibility
- •Layers of system flexibility
- •Redefining the role of system resources
- •Differentiating energy volume and energy option contributions
- •Evolving grids
- •From passive demand to load shaping
- •Implications for centralised system resources
- •Operational regime shifts for thermal assets
- •Matching VRE to system requirements
- •Increasing need for advanced grid solutions
- •Deploying advanced grid solutions
- •Multiple deployment opportunities for large-scale storage
- •Optimising the use of PSH
- •Embracing the versatility of grid-scale batteries
- •Synthetic fuels and other long-term storage options
- •Large-scale load shaping
- •Industrial demand response
- •Efficient industry electrification
- •Implications for DER
- •System benefits of energy efficiency
- •Mobilising the load through EVs
- •Targeting energy efficiency for system flexibility
- •Engaging distributed battery storage
- •Distributed generation for system services
- •Aggregation for load shaping
- •References
- •Policy, market and regulatory frameworks for power system transformation
- •Basic principles to unlock flexibility
- •Wholesale market design
- •General setup
- •Short-term markets (minutes to hours)
- •Medium-term markets (month to three years)
- •Long-term investment market (three years and beyond)
- •Economic dispatch and rapid trading
- •Cross-regional trade of electricity
- •Benefits of regional power system integration
- •Centralised versus decentralised models of integration
- •Market integration in the European Union
- •Market organisation
- •Attracting investment in low-carbon generation capacity
- •SV as a key concept for renewable and low-carbon energy development
- •System-friendly VRE deployment
- •German market premium system
- •Mexican clean energy and capacity auctions
- •Pricing of externalities
- •Impact of CO2 pricing on daily and long-term operations in the power market
- •Policy packages and interactions
- •Electricity sector design
- •Retail markets and distributed energy resources
- •Retail pricing reform
- •Degrees of granularity for retail tariffs
- •Compensating DER
- •Implications for general policy design
- •Revisiting roles and responsibilities
- •The DSO-TSO interface
- •Aggregators
- •Role of ISOs
- •Centralised and decentralised platforms for DER engagement
- •Elements of structural reform
- •Policy principles for DER
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •Integrated planning incorporating demand-side resources
- •Integrated generation and network planning
- •Integrated planning between the power sector and other sectors
- •Interregional planning
- •Including system flexibility assessments in long-term planning
- •Planning for distribution grids
- •Improved screening/study techniques
- •Including local flexibility requirements in planning techniques
- •Policy principles for planning and infrastructure
- •Transition mechanisms to facilitate system reforms
- •Mexico’s legacy contracts for the regulated supplier
- •Transition from the public service regime
- •Transition from the private-party regime (self-supply)
- •Treatment of “stranded costs” in the United States
- •References
- •Power system transformation pathways for China to 2035
- •General trends in China’s power system evolution
- •Achieving a “Beautiful China”
- •Key variables for system transformation
- •Different power system pathways
- •Two main scenarios for 2035
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the NPS
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the SDS
- •Description of power system model used for analysis
- •Power sector modelling results
- •Comparing basic features of the WEO 2018 NPS and SDS results
- •NPS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of results
- •Value of moving from fair dispatch to economic dispatch
- •Value of unlocking interregional trading
- •A closer look at VRE-rich regions
- •SDS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of the results
- •Understanding an SDS power system without advanced flexibility options: SDS-Inflex
- •Assessing individual flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of DSR deployment: SDS-DSR
- •Understanding the value of electricity storage: SDS-Storage
- •Understanding the value of smart EV charging: SDS-EV
- •Assessing portfolios of flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of DSR and EVs: SDS-DSR+EV
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of storage and EVs: SDS-Storage+EV
- •Understanding the value of a combined portfolio of smart EV charging, DSR and storage: SDS-Full flex
- •Summary
- •References
- •Summary and conclusions
- •Power system transformation in China
- •China has already embarked on its own pathway to power system optimisation.
- •Integrating variable renewable energy and an orderly reduction of coal power will be the primary challenges for successful power system optimisation.
- •Power system flexibility will become the most important attribute of a transformed power system.
- •Different layers of the power system need to be addressed in order to achieve system transformation successfully.
- •The alignment and integration of different policies and measures in the power sector and related sectors are pivotal to long-term success.
- •Optimising the dispatch of power plants is a fundamental prerequisite for reducing power generation costs and preserving VRE investability.
- •Creating short-term markets and robust short-term price signals can greatly facilitate power system transformation and reduce system-wide energy prices.
- •The optimised use of existing and soon-to-be-built transmission lines can substantially reduce renewable energy curtailment and integrate additional wind and solar capacity.
- •Optimising power system operation is bound to trigger the market exit of inefficient coal generators; this process is likely to need active management.
- •Innovative options to further accelerate progress towards a “Beautiful China”
- •Optimised use of demand-shaping techniques is critical to unlock very high shares of renewable energy cost-effectively.
- •Electric mobility has great potential for integrating renewable energy, but only if charging patterns are optimised.
- •Applying digital technologies to the distribution grid and at the customer level can unlock additional flexibility and is an opportunity for economic development.
- •Additional considerations for markets, policies, regulation and planning
- •Advanced renewable energy policies can minimise integration challenges.
- •Advanced design of wholesale markets, including markets for system services, is an important tool to accelerate power system transformation.
- •Changes to electricity tariffs could help optimise the deployment and use of distributed energy resources (DER).
- •Integrated long-term planning that includes demand shaping and advanced options for energy storage is a crucial foundation for a successful transformation of the power system.
- •International implications
- •Accelerated progress on power sector optimisation could bring substantial benefits for China and the world.
- •References
- •Annexes
- •Annex A. Spatial disaggregation of national demand and supply
- •Modelling regions and interconnections
- •Defining modelling regions and regional interconnections
- •Creating regional electricity demand profiles
- •Generating hourly load profiles for each region
- •Allocating generation capacity between regions
- •Method used for calculating CAPEX savings
- •References
- •Acronyms
- •Acknowledgements, contributors and credits
- •Table of contents
- •List of figures
- •List of boxes
- •List of tables

China Power System Transformation |
Context and status of power system transformation in China |
regulation, the difference between the threshold and the plant’s actual output is reimbursed by those power plants operating above the threshold at the time. Renewables generation in the Northeast region increased by 22% in 2017 compared to 2016, with only a 2% increase in capacity. The experience of the Northeast ancillary service market has been extended to seven other provinces, helping to reduce renewables curtailment in China from 11 TWh in 2016 to about 8 TWh in 2017 (NEA, 2017).
Realising optimised planning
Five-year plan
China adopted a central planning system for its economy upon the foundation of the country, making five-year plans for all critical economic sectors. However, since the nationwide “reform and opening up” campaign in 1978, the economy has gradually changed towards a marketoriented one, and the five-year plans have become more about setting policy direction and providing guidance (IEA, 2017a).
In March 2016 central government released the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) on economic and social development. Based on this, the NDRC and the NEA published the 13th Five-Year Plan on the power sector and its subsectors, including coal, hydro, solar, wind, geothermal and biomass (NDRC and NEA, 2016c; NEA, 2016c; NEA 2016d). It listed the main targets and tasks for the power sector to the year 2020, alongside the supporting policies. Selected key indicators are listed in Table 1.
Table 1. Selected key power sector indicators in China’s 13th Five-Year Plan
Indicator |
2015 |
|
2020 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total electricity consumption (TWh) |
5 690 |
|
6 800-7 200 |
|
Total generation capacity (GW) |
1 530 |
|
2 000 |
|
Electricity consumption per capita (kWh) |
4 142 |
|
4 860-5 140 |
|
Share of electricity in energy consumption (%) |
25.8% |
|
27% |
|
Non-fossil fuel generation capacity (GW) |
520 |
|
|
770 |
Non-fossil fuel share of generation capacity (%) |
35% |
|
39% |
|
Non-fossil fuel share of energy consumption (%) |
12% |
|
15% |
|
Solar generation capacity (GW) |
430 |
|
110 |
|
Solar generation (TWh) |
40 |
|
150 |
|
Wind generation capacity (GW) |
131 |
|
210 |
|
Offshore wind generation capacity (GW) |
- |
|
5 |
|
Wind generation (TWh) |
- |
|
420 |
|
Total hydro generation capacity (GW) |
297 |
|
340 |
|
Large and medium-sized hydro capacity (GW) |
222 |
|
260 |
|
Small hydro capacity (GW) |
75 |
|
80 |
|
Pumped storage hydro capacity (GW) |
23 |
|
40 |
|
Normal hydro generation (TWh) |
- |
|
1 250 |
|
Large and medium-sized hydro generation (TWh) |
- |
|
1 000 |
|
Small hydro generation (TWh) |
- |
|
250 |
|
Nuclear generation capacity (GW) |
27 |
|
58 |
|
Coal generation capacity (GW) |
900 |
|
< 1 100 |
|
Gas generation capacity (GW) |
66 |
|
110 |
|
Co-generation capacity (GW) |
- |
|
133 |
|
EV charging infrastructure |
- |
|
|
Sufficient for 5 million |
|
|
|
EVs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Transmission from west to east (GW) |
140 |
|
270 |
Notes: EV = electric vehicle; kWh = kilowatt hour.
PAGE | 40
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