
- •Abstract
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Actions to boost flexibility and investment
- •Modelling analyses
- •Spot markets and trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •International implications
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Report context and objectives
- •Drivers of change in power systems
- •Rapid growth of wind and solar PV
- •Power system flexibility
- •Phases of VRE integration
- •Priority areas for system transformation
- •Modelling approach
- •Spot markets and regional trade
- •Advanced power system flexibility
- •Investment certainty
- •Renewable energy policy
- •Market design and planning
- •Wholesale market design
- •Retail market design
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •International implications
- •Technical analysis
- •Introduction
- •Context and status of power system transformation in China
- •Background
- •Economically shifting gears
- •Ecological civilisation
- •Power system transformation
- •Brief introduction to China’s power system
- •Current status of power system in China
- •General perspective
- •How the power system works in China
- •Historical evolution
- •Power sector reform in 2015
- •Challenges in China’s power sector
- •Planning
- •Interprovincial and interregional trading
- •Dispatching order
- •Benchmark pricing system
- •Renewable development and integration
- •Emerging trends in system transformation in China
- •Introducing flexible market operation
- •Establishing spot markets
- •Incremental distribution grid pilots
- •Unlocking the retail side
- •Power plant flexibility pilots
- •Realising optimised planning
- •Five-year plan
- •Long-term strategy
- •Technological innovation and electrification
- •Distributed energy
- •Multi-energy projects, microgrids and “Internet+” smart energy
- •Digitalisation
- •Demand-side management/demand-side response
- •Electricity storage
- •EV development
- •Clean winter heating programme
- •Summary
- •References
- •Power system transformation and flexibility
- •Three global trends in power systems
- •Low-cost wind power and solar photovoltaics
- •Digitalisation
- •Rise of DER
- •Distributed solar PV
- •Electricity-based clean heating
- •Implications for power systems
- •Flexibility as the core concept of power system transformation
- •Properties of VRE generators
- •Phases of system integration
- •Different timescales of system flexibility
- •Layers of system flexibility
- •Redefining the role of system resources
- •Differentiating energy volume and energy option contributions
- •Evolving grids
- •From passive demand to load shaping
- •Implications for centralised system resources
- •Operational regime shifts for thermal assets
- •Matching VRE to system requirements
- •Increasing need for advanced grid solutions
- •Deploying advanced grid solutions
- •Multiple deployment opportunities for large-scale storage
- •Optimising the use of PSH
- •Embracing the versatility of grid-scale batteries
- •Synthetic fuels and other long-term storage options
- •Large-scale load shaping
- •Industrial demand response
- •Efficient industry electrification
- •Implications for DER
- •System benefits of energy efficiency
- •Mobilising the load through EVs
- •Targeting energy efficiency for system flexibility
- •Engaging distributed battery storage
- •Distributed generation for system services
- •Aggregation for load shaping
- •References
- •Policy, market and regulatory frameworks for power system transformation
- •Basic principles to unlock flexibility
- •Wholesale market design
- •General setup
- •Short-term markets (minutes to hours)
- •Medium-term markets (month to three years)
- •Long-term investment market (three years and beyond)
- •Economic dispatch and rapid trading
- •Cross-regional trade of electricity
- •Benefits of regional power system integration
- •Centralised versus decentralised models of integration
- •Market integration in the European Union
- •Market organisation
- •Attracting investment in low-carbon generation capacity
- •SV as a key concept for renewable and low-carbon energy development
- •System-friendly VRE deployment
- •German market premium system
- •Mexican clean energy and capacity auctions
- •Pricing of externalities
- •Impact of CO2 pricing on daily and long-term operations in the power market
- •Policy packages and interactions
- •Electricity sector design
- •Retail markets and distributed energy resources
- •Retail pricing reform
- •Degrees of granularity for retail tariffs
- •Compensating DER
- •Implications for general policy design
- •Revisiting roles and responsibilities
- •The DSO-TSO interface
- •Aggregators
- •Role of ISOs
- •Centralised and decentralised platforms for DER engagement
- •Elements of structural reform
- •Policy principles for DER
- •Upgraded planning frameworks
- •Integrated planning incorporating demand-side resources
- •Integrated generation and network planning
- •Integrated planning between the power sector and other sectors
- •Interregional planning
- •Including system flexibility assessments in long-term planning
- •Planning for distribution grids
- •Improved screening/study techniques
- •Including local flexibility requirements in planning techniques
- •Policy principles for planning and infrastructure
- •Transition mechanisms to facilitate system reforms
- •Mexico’s legacy contracts for the regulated supplier
- •Transition from the public service regime
- •Transition from the private-party regime (self-supply)
- •Treatment of “stranded costs” in the United States
- •References
- •Power system transformation pathways for China to 2035
- •General trends in China’s power system evolution
- •Achieving a “Beautiful China”
- •Key variables for system transformation
- •Different power system pathways
- •Two main scenarios for 2035
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the NPS
- •Power sector modelling cases analysed for the SDS
- •Description of power system model used for analysis
- •Power sector modelling results
- •Comparing basic features of the WEO 2018 NPS and SDS results
- •NPS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of results
- •Value of moving from fair dispatch to economic dispatch
- •Value of unlocking interregional trading
- •A closer look at VRE-rich regions
- •SDS modelling cases
- •High-level summary of the results
- •Understanding an SDS power system without advanced flexibility options: SDS-Inflex
- •Assessing individual flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of DSR deployment: SDS-DSR
- •Understanding the value of electricity storage: SDS-Storage
- •Understanding the value of smart EV charging: SDS-EV
- •Assessing portfolios of flexibility options
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of DSR and EVs: SDS-DSR+EV
- •Understanding the value of a portfolio of storage and EVs: SDS-Storage+EV
- •Understanding the value of a combined portfolio of smart EV charging, DSR and storage: SDS-Full flex
- •Summary
- •References
- •Summary and conclusions
- •Power system transformation in China
- •China has already embarked on its own pathway to power system optimisation.
- •Integrating variable renewable energy and an orderly reduction of coal power will be the primary challenges for successful power system optimisation.
- •Power system flexibility will become the most important attribute of a transformed power system.
- •Different layers of the power system need to be addressed in order to achieve system transformation successfully.
- •The alignment and integration of different policies and measures in the power sector and related sectors are pivotal to long-term success.
- •Optimising the dispatch of power plants is a fundamental prerequisite for reducing power generation costs and preserving VRE investability.
- •Creating short-term markets and robust short-term price signals can greatly facilitate power system transformation and reduce system-wide energy prices.
- •The optimised use of existing and soon-to-be-built transmission lines can substantially reduce renewable energy curtailment and integrate additional wind and solar capacity.
- •Optimising power system operation is bound to trigger the market exit of inefficient coal generators; this process is likely to need active management.
- •Innovative options to further accelerate progress towards a “Beautiful China”
- •Optimised use of demand-shaping techniques is critical to unlock very high shares of renewable energy cost-effectively.
- •Electric mobility has great potential for integrating renewable energy, but only if charging patterns are optimised.
- •Applying digital technologies to the distribution grid and at the customer level can unlock additional flexibility and is an opportunity for economic development.
- •Additional considerations for markets, policies, regulation and planning
- •Advanced renewable energy policies can minimise integration challenges.
- •Advanced design of wholesale markets, including markets for system services, is an important tool to accelerate power system transformation.
- •Changes to electricity tariffs could help optimise the deployment and use of distributed energy resources (DER).
- •Integrated long-term planning that includes demand shaping and advanced options for energy storage is a crucial foundation for a successful transformation of the power system.
- •International implications
- •Accelerated progress on power sector optimisation could bring substantial benefits for China and the world.
- •References
- •Annexes
- •Annex A. Spatial disaggregation of national demand and supply
- •Modelling regions and interconnections
- •Defining modelling regions and regional interconnections
- •Creating regional electricity demand profiles
- •Generating hourly load profiles for each region
- •Allocating generation capacity between regions
- •Method used for calculating CAPEX savings
- •References
- •Acronyms
- •Acknowledgements, contributors and credits
- •Table of contents
- •List of figures
- •List of boxes
- •List of tables

China Power System Transformation |
Context and status of power system transformation in China |
Meanwhile, it also plans to develop more flexible generation sources, including gas power and pumped hydropower.
China has already started on its path away from a fully centrally planned approach towards one that offers a stronger role for the market in the power system. The five-year plans have become more about setting policy direction and providing guidance. The government has also placed greater emphasis on a more co-ordinated planning process, meaning better central–provincial co-ordination and fossil fuel–renewables co-ordination (NEA, 2016a).
Development of demand-side response to support power system optimisation is another crucial aspect according to the government (NDRC et al., 2017a). Policy makers in China realise that power demand can be a part of the system that is actively managed, rather than something fixed that just has to be passively accepted. Demand-side response will play a more important role in future to help reduce the curtailment of variable renewables.
Brief introduction to China’s power system
Current status of power system in China
General perspective
The impressive speed of China’s economic growth has propelled demand for electricity, which has grown from 1 387 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2000 to 6 363 TWh in 2017, making China the world’s largest electricity consumer.
China now has the largest installed generation capacity in the world (1 780 GW by 2017), nearly 60% of which is coal powered. However, in the last few years the great expansion in capacity has coincided with a period of slower growth in power demand. The country has therefore experienced overcapacity in the power sector, particularly reflected in a reduction in the capacity factor for coal-fired generators.
Renewable capacity installed in China in the past decade amounted to more than one-fifth of all power capacity installed globally during the same period. The country already leads the world in installed capacity of hydropower, wind and solar power. However, the rapid growth of renewables has created an issue of integration, leading to a high curtailment rate of wind and solar generation. In some regions the curtailment rate has exceeded 40% (CEC, 2017).
China has implemented several rounds of electricity sector reform. In 2015 the government put forward a reform agenda under Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of Power System
(Document No. 9), with the aim of increasing reliance on market forces (State Council, 2015b).
How the power system works in China
China’s power system was originally designed with the characteristics of a centrally planned system.7 With power sector reform, the current system is seen as a combination of the original system with new market-based elements.
The planning and investment cycle in China follows a centrally planned system (NEA, 2016a). The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA) are responsible for developing a five-year national plan. This plan includes
7 This section follows Power Sector Reform in China: An International Perspective (IEA, 2018a).
PAGE | 28
IEA. All rights reserved

China Power System Transformation |
Context and status of power system transformation in China |
strict investment and technology deployment objectives for generation, transmission and distribution by province. Provinces are responsible for achieving these targets and are in charge of permitting for many of the projects.
Midand long-term contracting8 used to contribute a small portion (2-10%) of the total power transactions, and the buyers and sellers were selected administratively before 2015, when Document No. 9 came into effect. China also has cross-regional (interprovincial/interregional) midand long-term trading, intended to improve the overall efficiency of the power system and make provincial grids more resilient by sharing their energy and backup services. However, most of the interprovincial/interregional power trading was predetermined by government following a national strategy, such as coal and wind power transmission from the Northeast to the Northern region, hydropower transmission from the Central to the Southern region, and coal power transmission from the Northwest region to the Central or Northern regions.
Since Document No. 9, midand long-term contracting is encouraged as the major form of market trading, with multiple timescales (annually, quarterly, monthly, weekly and days-ahead) and multiple forms (bilateral negotiation, listed auction, centralised auction and unbalanced energy trading). It accounted for a larger proportion (26%) of total power transactions in 2017 (EPPEI, 2017).
Responsibility for power dispatch has been assumed by provincial dispatching centres9 and still follows an administrative process (NEA, 1994). At the end of each year, the provincial dispatching centres forecast the total power demand for the coming year, and then allocate power generation quotas to each generator within their respective province following a fair dispatch rule. (Annual generation plans made by the dispatching centres need to be approved by the provincial government.) This rule allows each generator in the same category (e.g. coal power) to be allocated the same annual operating hours, with only minor differences in capacity, emissions levels and operating efficiency. Plants are dispatched to meet demand on the basis of target annual full load hours (+/- 1.5%), subject to priority dispatch for nuclear power plants and renewables.
Dispatch centres in China are affiliated to the grid companies and have a multi-level hierarchy, i.e. national, regional, provincial, prefectural and county levels. Provincial dispatching essentially plays the most important role in the system, while national/regional dispatch centres take charge of interregional/interprovincial power transmission, and prefectural/county dispatch centres are mainly responsible for prefectural/county load management (RAP, 2015).
There is currently no spot market, but eight provinces were selected by the NDRC to pilot a spot market and are expected to start trialling by June 2019. Meanwhile, the ancillary services market has been successfully implemented in Northeast China and then extended in five other provinces; the interregional renewable spot market has been adopted for surplus renewables trading, but at a fairly small scale (NDC, 2017).
China has adopted a centrally determined power pricing system, with a benchmarked on-grid price and a benchmarked retail price (IEA, 2006). Owing to the differences in economic development levels, benchmark prices vary between provinces. The benchmarked on-grid price reflects the cost of power plant construction and return expectations. The benchmarked retail price has four pricing categories depending on the type of end user: large-scale industrial;
8Midto long-term contracting allows large buyers and newly created independent retail companies to buy power directly from generators, signing monthly or annual bilateral contracts that specify the volume of electricity to be purchased and at what price. These deals are not yet required to schedule their generation to match demand; this is still managed by the grid company. These contracts only govern price and volume.
9Provincial dispatching centres are affiliated to grid companies.
Page | 29
IEA. All rights reserved