FID trends for power generation

Coal-fired power generation capacity subject to an FID

Note: GW = gigawatt.

Source: IEA analysis with calculations based on McCoy Power Reports (2019)

By plant type

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GW

100

80

60

40

20

0

FIDs (i.e. decisions to start construction for the first time) for the main sources of large-scale dispatchable power –

coal, gas, nuclear, and hydropower – fell by a quarter in 2018 to 90 GW, 55% lower than in 2010.

In 2018, coal-fired power FIDs declined by 30% to 22 GW, their lowest level this century. Most FIDs are now for high-efficiency plants, with inefficient subcritical plants

comprising only 10%. The largest fall in FIDs was in China, but levels in Southeast Asia were their lowest level in 14 years. India was the largest market, now largely oriented towards supercritical technology, but levels were 80% lower than in 2010.

In China, the central government has made efforts in recent years to restrict permitting and plant construction, amid signs of overcapacity and local air pollution concerns. There is some uncertainty over the capacity under construction in China, which could affect

investment levels ahead – reports suggest some plant sites, where activity was previously suspended, may be resuming construction.

FIDs for gas-fired power also dropped for the third consecutive year, by nearly 15%, though remained twice

as high as those for coal. The largest declines in gas FIDs were in the MENA region (-50%), where there is excess capacity in the power system, and the United States (-30%). In contrast, they grew in China by 70%, and for the first time more gas-fired power capacity was

sanctioned than that of coal.

FIDs for the largest sources of low-carbon dispatchable generation – hydropower and nuclear– were 40% lower than in 2017. Construction starts for new nuclear power plants rose by 50% in 2018, none of which were in China,

but were lower than grid connections. Pumped hydro accounted for the majority of hydro projects taking FID in 2018 for the first time.