Technical analysis

Technical analysis

Introduction

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major contributor to climate change but it can also be a valuable input to a range of products and services. Governments and industry globally are developing new opportunities to use CO2 in a way that can support climate change objectives while also driving industrial innovation, enabling a circular economy and facilitating use of renewable electricity in the transport, heating and industrial sector.

This analysis explores the near-term potential for CO2 use in five key applications: fuels, chemicals, building materials from minerals, building materials from waste, and yields boosting (for example, in greenhouses). The focus is on emerging technologies and applications rather than existing uses of CO2, most of which involve direct use of CO2 (such as in food and beverage production) rather than its conversion to other molecules. Although the market for CO2 for these existing uses is growing incrementally, large-scale demand is mostly saturated, with the exception of CO2 used to enhance oil recovery (CO2-EOR). CO2-EOR has been considered in previous IEA reports (IEA, 2015) and is not included in this analysis.

The analysis is structured as follows. The first section describes the main CO2 use applications, the current market, the key drivers, and how CO2 use can provide climate benefits. In the second section, the analysis considers criteria to determine the future market for a CO2-derived product or service. It assesses the potential to grow the market for each of the five key categories of CO2-derived products and services to a scale of 10 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 use per year. The third section discusses policy instruments to drive the uptake of CO2-derived products and services, and presents recommendations that emerge from the analysis.