Putting CO2 to Use: Creating Value from Emissions |
Technical analysis |
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Electricity and raw materials requirements for production of chemical intermediates
CTS 
Primary chemicals from the chemicals sector 
Primary chemicals from refining
PWh |
20 |
Gt |
5 |
|
|
||
|
16 |
|
4 |
|
12 |
|
3 |
|
8 |
|
2 |
|
4 |
|
1 |
|
0 |
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0 |
CTS CO pathway
Electricity
CTS |
CO pathway |
CTS |
CO pathway |
Feedstock water |
|
CO |
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Notes: CTS = Clean Technology Scenario. The CTS numbers apply to: chemicals sector (category Electricity), primary chemical production (category Feedstock water) and energy-intensive industries (cement, iron and steel, pulp and paper and aluminium, but excluding the chemicals sector) (category CO2). The energy required to produce primary chemicals from refining is estimated based on the average energy intensity of end-use chemical production in 2017.
Source: IEA (2018c), The Future of Petrochemicals: Towards a More Sustainable Chemical Industry.
Some 17.4 PWh of renewable electricity, 2.2 Gt of feed water and 2.3 Gt of CO2 would be needed to satisfy all primary chemical demand with CO2-derived chemicals in 2030.
* The CTS embodies a vision to reduce global energyand process-related CO2 emissions by almost 75% in 2060, relative to today. Further information can be found in IEA (2018c).
Under what conditions would CO2-derived chemicals be competitive?
Most commodity chemicals have highly optimised production chains and low profit margins, thus making it difficult for CO2-derived chemicals to compete. As for CO2-derived fuels, lowcost renewable electricity and significant cost reductions along the value chain are needed to make CO2-derived methanol competitive. Willingness to pay for CO2, however, is expected to be higher than for fuels due to the higher value of chemicals per tonne of CO2 used.
The production costs of CO2-derived soda ash and baking soda are unclear. A public study indicated production costs for CO2-derived soda are between USD 800-1500 /t, which is several times higher than the market price (USD 200-350 /t) (ADEME, 2014; Trading Economics, 2019).17 One of the main cost drivers is electricity needed for the electrolysis of the salt solution.
CO2-derived polymers are expected to be more competitive in the market, due to the relatively low energy requirements for their production and their high market value. Some claim that
17 Based on a conversion rate of 0.78 GBP/USD for the year 2017 (OECD, 2018).
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Putting CO2 to Use: Creating Value from Emissions |
Technical analysis |
certain polycarbonates may be even 15% to 30% cheaper than fossil-based counterparts, provided that the CO2 is considerably cheaper than the petroleum-based feedstock it replaces, which can be the case for polyurethanes (Alberici et al., 2017). In some instances, existing polymer plants can be used with minimal retrofits, but this depends on the specific type of process and polycarbonates produced.
Several companies have already announced that they have reached the commercialisation phase (Box 8). Production costs will, however, depend on the specific application of the polycarbonate and the market price of the final product in which it is used. Apart from fossil feedstock, CO2-derived chemicals will also have to compete with other low-carbon products in the future, such as bio-based chemicals.
Box 8. Commercial production of polycarbonates from CO2
A number of companies developing CO2-derived polycarbonates announced they have reached the commercialisation phase. Large-scale plants have been built, or are under construction, in various locations around the world.
Chimei Asai, a joint venture of Asahi Kasei Chemicals and Chi Mei Corp, has been operating a polycarbonate plant in Chinese Taipei since 2002. It produces 150 000 tonnes per year and was the first commercial plant to announce that it had succeeded in producing polycarbonates using CO2 as a starting material. Reported emissions reductions are 0.173 tCO2 per tonne polycarbonate product compared to the conventional pathway (Fukuoka et al. 2007).
In 2016, Covestro commissioned a commercial plant producing 5 000 tonnes of polycarbonates per year at Dormagen, Germany. Once in operation, the facility will use CO2 to substitute a portion of the fossil feedstock normally fed into the production process, resulting in a CO2 content of around 20% by weight in the final product. The product will be used as a feedstock for the production of foams for mattresses and furniture (Covestro, 2018). Savings in life-cycle GHG emissions were estimated to be around 15% relative to the conventional production process (von der Assen, 2015).
The company Novomer, purchased by Saudi Aramco in 2016, is due to start a commercial production facility with a capacity of 50-100 kt/yr of CO2-derived polycarbonate in 2019 in Texas, United States. The company produces polymers that contain up to 50% CO2, which can be used in several industrial applications, such as coatings and foams (Alberici et al., 2017).
Can CO2-derived chemicals deliver climate benefits?
The CO2 used for the production of chemicals is eventually released back into the atmosphere at the end of the lifetime of the material. As a result, potential climate benefits will come from the displacement of conventionally-produced chemicals with higher life-cycle emissions. In a best case scenario, assuming the use of low-carbon energy and zero energy requirements for CO2 capture and purification, GHG emissions reductions of 0.5 to 1.0 tonne CO2-eq per tonne methanol are possible, which equate to a 74% to 93% reduction as compared to the conventional production route (see previous section).
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