31.Gupta D. Op. Cit. P. 178.
32.См.: Patton C., Sawicki D. Op. Cit. P. 95.
33.Gupta D. Op. Cit. P. 198.
34.Feingold S. “Ethics, Objectivity, and Politics: Statistics in a Public Policy Perspective,” in Statistics and Public Policy// ed . Bruce D. Spencer. Oxford. 1997. p.76.
35.C. Taylor , M. Jodice. World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators.
1982
36. О современном взгляде на последствия Хойторнского эксперимента см.:
Smith J.H. The Enduring Legacy of Elton Mayo // Human Relations. № 51. 1998.
Р. 221-250.
37.Gupta D. Op. Cit. P. 215.
38.Яковлев И.Г. Информационно-аналитические технологии и политическое консультирование // Полис, №3, 1998. С.180.
39.Мангейм Дж., Рич Р. Указ. соч. С. 248.
40.Рабочие тетради ИАУКС. М., 1997, №2.
41.Gurr T.R. Politimetrics. An Introduction to Quantitative Macropolitics.
Englewood Cliffs. 1972.
42. Толстова Ю.Н. Измерение в социологии М., 1998.
43.Яковлев И.Г. «Информационно-аналитические технологии и политическое консультирование» // Полис, №3, 1998. C181.
44.Albridge A., Levine K. Surveying the Social World. Buckingham, 2001. 45.AlonsoW., P. Starr (eds.) The Politics of Numbers. NY, 1987.
46.BaileyK. Methods of Social Research. NY, 1982.
47.Ben R., Vaupel J. Quick Analysis for Busy Decision Makers. NY, 1982 48. Creswell J. Research Design: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, 1994.
49.Dillman D. Mail and Electronic Surveys. NY, 1999.
50.Gupta D. Op. cit. P. 267.
51. Gupta D. Op. cit. P. 268.
52.Herbert R. Applied Social Research. Columbus, 1983.
53.Lad F. Operational Subjective Statistical Methods: A Mathematical, Philosophical, and Historical Introduction. NY, 1996. P.235.
54.Matlack W. Statistics for Public Managers. London, 1993. P.126.
55.Miller D. Handbook of Research Design and Measurement. Beverly Hills, 1991 56.Nesbary D. Survey Research and the World Wide Web. Needham Heights 1999 57.Patton C., Sawicki D. Op. cit. P. 126.
58.Op. cit. P. 129.
59. Johnson J., Joslyn R, Reynolds H.T. Political Science Research Methods. NY. 2001
60.Rea L., Parker R. Designing and Conducting Survey Research. San Francisco, 1997
61. Spencer B. Statistics and Public Policy. Oxford, 1997.
62.WeimerD., Vining A. Policy Analysis. Concepts And Practice. Englewood Cliffs, 1992. P.254.
63.Op. cit. P. 256.
64.Taylor Ch., Jodice M. World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators. NY, 1982
65.Yin R. Case Study Research: Design and Methods. Beverly Hills, 1989.
66.Dunn W. Op. cit. 209.
67.Op. cit. 212.
68.Op. cit. 213.
69.Op. cit. 219.
70.Op. cit. 223.
71.Op. cit. 224.
72.Op. cit. 229.
73.Op. cit. 230
74.Op. cit. 234.
75.Op. cit. 241.
Глава 5. Политическая диагностика: виды и методы
1.A Guide to Programme Evaluation. Evaluation Associates Ltd, 1997.
2.Fisher F. Evaluating Public Policy. Chicago. 1995.
3.См.: Brewer G., deLeon P. The Foundations of Policy Analysis. NY.1983.; Dunn W. Public Policy Analysis: An Introduction. Englewood Cliffs. 1981.
4.Wholey J. S., Abramson M., Bellavita C. (eds.). Performance and Credibility: Developing Excellence in Public and Nonprofit Organisations. Lexington. 1986.
5.Utilising Evaluation: Concepts and Measurement Techniques. J. Ciarlo (ed.). Beverly Hills, 1981.
6.Brewer G., deLeon P. Op. cit. P. 236.
7.Op. сit. P.346.
8.Op. cit. P. 349.
9.A Guide to Programme Evaluation. Evaluation Associates Ltd, 1997.
10.Schulberg H., Jerrell J. M. (eds.) The Evaluator and Management. Beverly Hills. 1979.
11.Nay J., Kay P. Government Oversight and Evaluability Assessment.
Lexington. 1982.
12. Chelimsky E. The Politics of Program Evaluation //. Bloom H.S, Lights R.
J. (eds.) Evaluation Practice in Review. New Directions for Program
Evaluation. № 34. San Francisco.1987.
13. Carlson R., Crane A. Planning and Managing Useful Evaluations.// Improving
Government Performance. Evaluation Strategies for Strengthening Public
Agencies and Programs. Wholey J., Newcomer K. Jossey-Bass Inc. 1989.
14. Newcomer K., Wholey J. Evaluation Strategies for Building High-Performance Programs.// Improving Government Performance. Evaluation Strategies for Strengthening Public Agencies and Programs. Wholey J., Newcomer K., JosseyBass Inc. 1989.
533
15.Patton M. Utilization-Focused Evaluation. Beverly Hills, 1986.
16.Fisher F. Evaluating Public Policy. Chicago, 1995.
17.A Guide to Programme Evaluation. Evaluation Associates Ltd, 1997.
18.Salamon L. M. Follow-ups, Letdowns, and Sleepers: The Time Dimension in Policy Evaluation. // Jones C., Thomas R. (eds.). Public Policy Making in a Federal System. Beverly Hills, 1976.
19.Patton M. Creative Evaluation. Beverly Hills. 1981.
20. Wargo M. |
Characteristics of Successful Program Evaluations // |
Improving |
Government |
Performance. Evaluation Strategies for Strengthening Public |
Agencies and Programs. Wholey J ., Newcomer K. San Francisco. 1989. |
21. Bell J. Using Short-Term Evaluation Tools // Improving |
Government |
Performance. Evaluation Strategies for Strengthening Public Agencies and Programs. J.Wholey, Newcomer K . San Francisco. 1989.
22.Bloom H., Lights R. (eds.) Evaluation Practice in Review. New Directions for Program Evaluation. San Francisco. 1987.
23.Schulberg H., Jerrell J. (eds.), The Evaluator and Management. Beverly Hills, 1979.
24.Ross J. A. "Decision Rules in Program Evaluation // Evaluation Review, №4. 1981.
25.Patton M. Creative Evaluation. Beverly Hills. 1981. P.25-26
26.Fisher F. Evaluating Public Policy. Chicago. 1995. P.
27.Patton, M. Q. Utilization-Focused Evaluation. Beverly Hills. 1986.
28.См: Patton M. Qualitative Evaluation Methods. Beverly Hills. 1980; Patton M. Utilization-Focused Evaluation. Beverly Hills. 1986.
29.U.S. General Accounting Office. Federal Evaluation: Fewer Evaluation Units, Reduced Resources, Different Studies from 1980. PEMD-87-9. Washington, D.C.: U.S. General Accounting Office. 1987. P.2.
30.Brewer G., deLeon P. The Foundations of Policy Analysis. 1983
31.Dunn W. Op. сit. P. 17.
32.Различение терминов output (продукт, «выход») и outcome (последствие, результат) нередко представляет сложность даже для носителей английского языка. Возьмем в качестве примера программу, направленную на профессиональную переподготовку и трудоустройство безработных. Продукт деятельности такой программы будет измеряться такими показателями, как «количество безработных, закончивших курсы переподготовки», «число специальностей, по которым проводится переподготовка» и т.д. Результат при этом будет измеряться иначе: «количество выпускников программы, устроившихся на работу по выбранной специальности в течение года после окончания курсов», «количество выпускников программы, не потерявших работу повторно в течение трех лет», и т.д.
33.Patton M. Qualitative Evaluation Methods. Beverly Hills. 1980.
34.Yin R. Case Study Research: Design and Methods. Beverly Hills. 1989.
Глава 6. Политическое прогнозирование: виды и методы.
1. Weimer D., Vining A. Policy Analysis. Concepts And Practice . Englewood
Cliffs, 1992.
2. Бестужев-Лада И.В. Прогнозирование./ Философский энциклопедический словарь. М., 1983.
3.Armstrong Scott J. Long-Range Forecasting. NY. 1985. P.6
4.Рабочая книга по прогнозированию. М., 1981.
5.См.: Chislom R., Whitaker G. Forecasting Methods. Homewood, 1971; Chambers J., Mullick S., Smith D. An Executive’s Guide to Forecasting. NY, 1974; Seo K.K. Managerial Economics. Homewood, 1984.
6.Armstrong Scott J. Long-Range Forecasting, NY., 1985. P. 29.
7.Op. cit. P. 73.
8.Ор. cit. P. 75.
9.Op. cit. P. 76.
10.Armstrong Scott J. Principles of Forecasting. NY., 2001.
11.Armstrong Scott J. Long-Range Forecasting, NY., 1985. P. 425
12.См.: Turner J. A Survey of Forecasting Methods // D. Ashton, L. Simister
(Eds.) The Role of Forecasting in Corporate Planning. London, 1970.
13.Makridakis S., Wheelwright S., McGee V. Forecasting: Methods and Applications. N.Y, 1983. P.56.
14.Lawrence M. An exploration of some practical issues in the use of quantitative forecasting models // Journal of Forecasting, Vol.2, 1983.
15.Makridakis S., Wheelwright S. and McGee V. Op.cit. P 61.
16.Armstrong Scott J. Op. cit. P. 161.
17. См.: Makridakis S., Wheelwright S., McGee V. Op. cit. 68.; Levenbach H., Cleary J. The Beginning Forecaster: The Forecasting Process Through Data Analysis. Belmont, 1981.
18.Makridakis S., Wheelwright S., McGee V. Op.cit. P. 69. 19. Armstrong Scott J. Op. cit. P. 185.
20.Gupta D. Analyzing Public Policy. Concepts, Tools and Techniques. N.Y. 2001. P. 202.
21.Koomey J. Avoiding “The Big Mistake” in Forecas ting Technology Adoption
//Papers for Energex Conference, Las Vegas, 2000.P. 28.
22. Koomey J. Op. cit. P 32.
23.Simon H. Models of Man: Social and Rational. N.Y, 1957.
24.Lindblom Ch. The Science of Muddling Through // Public Administration Review. Spring, 1959.
25.Armstrong Scott J. Op. cit. P.80. 26.Op. cit. с.81.
27.Op. cit. с.85.
28.Simon J. Basic Research Methods in Social Science. NY. 1969.
29. Eggleton I. Untuitive time-series extrapolation./ Journal of Accounting Research. Vol.20. N.Y. 1982.
536
30.Cerf C., NavaskyV. The Experts Speak. NY., 1984.
31.Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A. (Eds.) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge, 1982.
32.Jarvik M.E. Probability Learning and Negative Recency Effect in the Serial Anticipation of Alternative Symbols // Journal of Experimental Psychology. V.41.
1951.
33. Литвак Б.Г. Экспертные оценки и принятие решений. М., 1996, с. 19 35. Там же , с.20.
36.Хелмер О. Анализ будущего: метод Делфи. // Научно-техническое прогнозирование для промышленности и правительственных учреждений.
М., 1972.
37.Литвак Б.Г. Указ. соч с.61.
38.Гордон Т.Д. Новые подходы к методу Делфи. // Научно-техническое прогнозирование для промышленности и правительственных учреждений.
М., 1972.
Глава 7. Политическое планирование: виды и методы.
1.Urban Design Project Manual. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois, 2002. P. 12.
2.McNamara C. Basic Guidelines for Successful Planning Process. MAP, University of Minnesota. 2001. P 23.
3.Wildavsky A. Speaking Truth to Power. The Art and Craft of Policy Anaysis. 1979. P.8.
4.Patton C., Sawicki D. Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planing. 1986. P.5
5.Weimer D., Vining A. Policy Analysis. Concepts And Practice . Englewood Cliffs, 1992. P. 6
6.Mintzberg H. The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning. Basic Books. 1994. P. .
7.Porter M. "What is Strategy?" / Harvard Business Review (Nov-Dec 1996).
8.Cм.: Porter M. Competitive Strategy. / Harvard Business School Press. 1986.
9. Cм.: McNamara C. Strategic Planning (in nonprofit or for-profit organizations).
MAP, University of Minnesota. 2002. P. 189.
11.Cм.: Johnson G., Scholes K., Sexty, R. Exploring strategic management. Scarborough, 1989. P. 87.
12.Tregoe B., Zimmerman J. Op. cit. P. 197.
13.Cм.: Johnson G., Scholes K., Sexty, R. Op. cit. P. 91.
14.Cм.: Glass, N. M. Op. cit. P. 123.
15.Cм.: Arnold J. D. The Art of Decision Making. New York. 1980.
16.Cм.: Nickols F. Objectives, Systems, Patterns, Politics and Conflict
/Performance and Instruction. 1992.
Глава 8. Разработка практически – политических
рекомендаций.
1.Weimer D., Vining A. Policy Analysis. Concepts And Practice. Englewood Cliffs. 1992. P. 1.
2.Op. сit. P.2.
3.Patton C., Sawicki D. Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning.
Englewood Cliffs. 1983. P.14
4.Musso J, Biller R., Myrtle R. Tradecraft: Professional Writing as Problem Solving // Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Vol.19, № 4, 2000. P.635-
5.Weimer D., Vining A. Op. cit. P. 18.
6.Nakamura R. The Textbook Policy Process and Implementation Research //Policy Studies Review. V. 7. № 1. 1987. P.142-154.
7.Kuhn T. S. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago. 1970.
8.См.: Simon H . Models of Man: Social and Rational. NY, 1957;
Lindblom Ch. The Science of Muddling Through / Public Administration Review.
Spring, 1959.
9. Sabatier P. Op. cit. P. 89.
10.См.: Wildavsky A. Speaking Truth To Power. The Art And Craft Of Policy Analysis - New Brunswick. 1987. P. 154.
11.Op. cit. P. 97.
12.Hirshman A. O. Exit, Voice and Loyalty. NY. 1988.
13.Weimer D., Vining A. Op. cit. P. 25.
14.French P. A. Ethics in Government. Englewood Cliffs. 1983. P.134.
15.См.: Weimer D., Vining A. Op. cit. P. 34.; Larson Ch. U. Persuasion: Deception and Responsibility. Belmont, 1995; Heineman R. A. et al. The World of Policy Analyst: Rationality, Values and Politics. Chatham House. 1997.
16.Musso J., Biller R., Myrtle R. Tradecraft: Professional Writing as Problem Solving // Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Vol.19, № 4, 2000. P.635.
17.Weimer D.,Vining A. Op. cit. P. 42.
18.Musso J., Biller R., Myrtle R. Op. cit. P. 640.
19.Op. cit. P. 642.
20.См.: Алексеева Т.А. Справедливость как политическая концепция. //Очерк современных западных дискуссий. М. 2001.
21.Arrow K. Social Choice and Individual Values. New Haven. 1963.
22.См.: Kaldor N. Welfare Propositions of Economics and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility //Economic Journal (1939) 49: 549-552; Hicks, John. “The Foundations of Welfare Economics” Economic Journal (1939) 49: 696-712
23.Rawls J. A Theory of Justice. Cambridge. 1971.
24.См.: Patton C., D.Sawicki. Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planing.
1986.
25.См.: Gramlich E. Benefit-Cost analysis of government programs. Englewood Cliffs. 1981.
26. MungerM. Analysing Policy. Concepts, Conflicts, and Practices. NY. 2000 27.Weimer D., Vining A. Op cit. P.235.
28. Cм.: Patton C., Sawicki D. Op. cit. 342.
29. Musso J., Biller R., R. Myrtle . Op. cit. P. 645.
30. Larson Ch. Persuasion: Deception and Responsibility. Belmont, 1995.
31.Weimer D., Vining A. Op. cit. P. 254.
32.Riker W. The Art of Political Manipulation. New Haven University. 1986.
33.“ Парадокс голосования” впервые был обнаружен французским математиком и философом Кондорсе в XVIII столетии, однако его теоретическая значимость для изучения демократии была широко признана только во второй половине ХХ в. До тех пор, пока “ парадокс Кондорсе” воспринимался как специфический результат специфической схемы голосования, он мог считаться просто курьезом. Однако в 1951 г. Кеннет Эрроу доказал, что всякая схема голосования, удовлетворяющая базовым условиям справедливости, может производить нелогичные результаты.
34.Weimer D.,Vining A. Op. cit. P.114.
35.Op. cit. 115.
36.Гусев Д.Г., Матвейчев О.А., Хазеев Р.Р., Чернаков С.Ю. Уши машут ослом… Современное социальное программирование. Пермь, 2002.
37.Riker W. Op. cit. P.114.
38.Weimer D., Vining A. Op. cit. P. 116.
39.Op. cit. 121.
40.Bardach E. The Implementation Game: What Happens after a Bill Becomes Law. Cambridge. 1977.
41.Weimer D., Vining A. Op. cit. P. 122.
42.Op. cit. P. 126.
43.Op. cit. P. 128-130.
