- •Introduction
- •Basic concepts of probability theory
- •Classical definition of probability
- •Relative frequency
- •Geometric probabilities
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 1
- •Exercises for Homework 1
- •Basic formulas of combinatorial analysis
- •Operations over events
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 2
- •Exercises for Homework 2
- •Theorem of addition of probabilities of incompatible events
- •Complete group of events
- •Opposite events
- •Conditional probability
- •Theorem of multiplication of probabilities
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 3
- •Exercises for Homework 3
- •Independent events
- •Where a is the appearance of at least one of the events a1, a2, …, An; .
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 4
- •Exercises for Homework 4
- •Theorem of addition of probabilities of compatible events
- •Formula of total probability
- •Probability of hypotheses. Bayes’s formulas.
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 5
- •Exercises for Homework 5
- •Repetition (recurrence) of trials. The Bernoulli formula
- •Local theorem of Laplace
- •Integral theorem of Laplace
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 6
- •Exercises for Homework 6
- •Random variables. The law of distribution of a discrete random variable
- •A random variable is understood as a variable which as result of a trial takes one of the possible set of its values (which namely – it is not beforehand known).
- •Mathematical operations over random variables
- •(Mathematical) expectation of a discrete random variable
- •Dispersion of a discrete random variable
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 7
- •Exercises for Homework 7
- •Distribution function of a random variable
- •Properties of a distribution function
- •Continuous random variables. Probability density
- •Properties of probability density
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 8
- •Exercises for Homework 8
- •Basic laws of distribution of discrete random variables
- •1. Binomial law of distribution
- •2. The law of distribution of Poisson
- •3. Geometric distribution
- •4. Hypergeometric distribution
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 9
- •Exercises for Homework 9
- •Basic laws of distribution of continuous random variables
- •1. The uniform law of distribution
- •2. Exponential law of distribution
- •3. Normal law of distribution
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 10
- •Exercises for Homework 10
- •The law of large numbers and limit theorems
- •The central limit theorem
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 11
- •Exercises for Homework 11
- •Mathematical statistics. Variation series and their characteristics
- •Numerical characteristics of variation series
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 12
- •Exercises for Homework 12
- •Bases of the mathematical theory of sampling
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 13
- •Exercises for Homework 13
- •Methods of finding of estimations
- •Notion of interval estimation
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 14
- •Exercises for Homework 14
- •Testing of statistical hypotheses
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 15
- •Exercises for Homework 15
- •Individual homeworks
- •Variant 1
- •Variant 2
- •Variant 3
- •Variant 4
- •Variant 5
- •Variant 6
- •Variant 7
- •Variant 8
- •Variant 9
- •Variant 10
- •Variant 11
- •Variant 12
- •Variant 13
- •Variant 14
- •Variant 15
- •Variant 16
- •Variant 17
- •Variant 18
- •Variant 19
- •Variant 20
- •Variant 21
- •Variant 22
- •Variant 23
- •Variant 24
- •Variant 25
- •Final exam trial tests (for self-checking)
- •Appendix
- •Values the functions and
- •List of the used books
- •Contents
Exercises for Homework 2
2.13. How many different 7-place codes for license plates are possible if the first 3 places are to be occupied by letters of Latin alphabet and the final 4 by numbers?
The answer: 175760000.
2.14. In Ex. 2.13, how many codes for license plates would be possible if repetition among letters or numbers were prohibited?
2.15. 10 persons participate in competitions, and three of them will take the first, second and third places. How many different variants are possible?
The answer: 720.
2.16. How many ways of choosing 3 persons of 10 are possible?
The answer: 120.
2.17. A randomly taken phone number consists of 5 digits. What is the probability that all digits of the phone number are:
a) identical;
b) odd?
It is known that any phone number does not begin with the digit zero.
The answer: a) 0,0001; b) 0,0347.
2.18. There are 3 cards with letter S, 3 cards with letter T, 2 cards with letter I, 1 card with letter A and 1 card with letter C. Cards are mixed and randomly taken out without replacement by one. Find the probability that cards with letters are taken out by the way of consecution of letters of the word «STATISTICS».
The answer: 0,0000198.
2.19. A box contains 15 details, and 10 of them are painted. A collector chooses at random 3 details. Find the probability that the chosen details are painted (collector – сборщик).
The answer: 0,264.
2.20. Find the probability that from 10 books located in a random order, 3 certain books will be beside.
The answer: 0,0667.
2.21. Four tickets are distributed among 25 students (15 of them are girls). Everyone can take only one ticket. What is the probability that owners of these tickets will be:
a) four girls;
b) four young men;
c) three young men and one girl?
The answer: a) 0,108; b) 0,017; c) 0,142.
2.22. There are 100 products (including 4 defective) in a batch. The batch is arbitrarily divided into two equal parts which are sent to two consumers. What is the probability that all defective products will be got:
a) by one consumer;
b) by both consumers fifty-fifty?
The answer: a) 0,117; b) 0,383.
2.23. A library consists of ten different books, and five books cost on 4 thousands of tenghe each, three books – on one thousand of tenghe and two books – on 3 thousands of tenghe. Find the probability that two randomly taken books cost 5 thousands of tenghe.
The answer: 1/3.
2.24. A coin is tossed three times. Let Ai be the event «an appearance of heads at the i-th tossing» (i = 1, 2, 3). Express by A1, A2, A3 and their negations the following events: A – «three heads»; B – «three tails»; C – «at least one heads»; D – «at least one tails»; E – «only one heads»; F – «only one tails».
L E C T U R E 3
Theorem of addition of probabilities of incompatible events
Let events A and B be incompatible and let the probabilities of these events be known. How can we find the probability of A + B?
Theorem. The probability of appearance of any of two incompatible events is equal to the sum of the probabilities of these events:
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B)
Corollary. The probability of appearance of any of several pairwise incompatible events is equal to the sum of the probabilities of these events:
P(A1 + A2 + …+ An) = P(A1) + P(A2)+ … + P(An).
Example. There are 30 balls in an urn: 10 red, 5 blue and 15 white. Find the probability of appearance of a colour ball.
Solution: An appearance of a colour ball is an appearance of either red or blue ball. The probability of appearance of a red ball (the event A) is equal to P(A) = 10/30 = 1/3. The probability of appearance of a blue ball (the event B) is equal to: P(B) = 5/30 = 1/6. The events A and B are incompatible (an appearance of a ball of one colour excludes an appearance of a ball of other colour), therefore the theorem of addition is applicable. The required probability is:
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) = 1/3 + 1/6 = 1/2.
Example. A shooter shoots in a target subdivided into three areas. The probability of hit in the first area is 0,45 and in the second – 0,35. Find the probability that the shooter will hit at one shot either in the first area or in the second area.
Solution: The events A – «the shooter hit in the first area» and B – «the shooter hit in the second area» are incompatible (hit in one area excludes hit in other area). Therefore, the theorem of addition is applicable. The required probability is:
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0,45 + 0,35 = 0,80.
