- •Introduction
- •Basic concepts of probability theory
- •Classical definition of probability
- •Relative frequency
- •Geometric probabilities
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 1
- •Exercises for Homework 1
- •Basic formulas of combinatorial analysis
- •Operations over events
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 2
- •Exercises for Homework 2
- •Theorem of addition of probabilities of incompatible events
- •Complete group of events
- •Opposite events
- •Conditional probability
- •Theorem of multiplication of probabilities
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 3
- •Exercises for Homework 3
- •Independent events
- •Where a is the appearance of at least one of the events a1, a2, …, An; .
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 4
- •Exercises for Homework 4
- •Theorem of addition of probabilities of compatible events
- •Formula of total probability
- •Probability of hypotheses. Bayes’s formulas.
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 5
- •Exercises for Homework 5
- •Repetition (recurrence) of trials. The Bernoulli formula
- •Local theorem of Laplace
- •Integral theorem of Laplace
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 6
- •Exercises for Homework 6
- •Random variables. The law of distribution of a discrete random variable
- •A random variable is understood as a variable which as result of a trial takes one of the possible set of its values (which namely – it is not beforehand known).
- •Mathematical operations over random variables
- •(Mathematical) expectation of a discrete random variable
- •Dispersion of a discrete random variable
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 7
- •Exercises for Homework 7
- •Distribution function of a random variable
- •Properties of a distribution function
- •Continuous random variables. Probability density
- •Properties of probability density
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 8
- •Exercises for Homework 8
- •Basic laws of distribution of discrete random variables
- •1. Binomial law of distribution
- •2. The law of distribution of Poisson
- •3. Geometric distribution
- •4. Hypergeometric distribution
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 9
- •Exercises for Homework 9
- •Basic laws of distribution of continuous random variables
- •1. The uniform law of distribution
- •2. Exponential law of distribution
- •3. Normal law of distribution
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 10
- •Exercises for Homework 10
- •The law of large numbers and limit theorems
- •The central limit theorem
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 11
- •Exercises for Homework 11
- •Mathematical statistics. Variation series and their characteristics
- •Numerical characteristics of variation series
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 12
- •Exercises for Homework 12
- •Bases of the mathematical theory of sampling
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 13
- •Exercises for Homework 13
- •Methods of finding of estimations
- •Notion of interval estimation
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 14
- •Exercises for Homework 14
- •Testing of statistical hypotheses
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 15
- •Exercises for Homework 15
- •Individual homeworks
- •Variant 1
- •Variant 2
- •Variant 3
- •Variant 4
- •Variant 5
- •Variant 6
- •Variant 7
- •Variant 8
- •Variant 9
- •Variant 10
- •Variant 11
- •Variant 12
- •Variant 13
- •Variant 14
- •Variant 15
- •Variant 16
- •Variant 17
- •Variant 18
- •Variant 19
- •Variant 20
- •Variant 21
- •Variant 22
- •Variant 23
- •Variant 24
- •Variant 25
- •Final exam trial tests (for self-checking)
- •Appendix
- •Values the functions and
- •List of the used books
- •Contents
Distribution function of a random variable
For a random variable X, the function F defined by
F(x) = P(X < x), - < x <
is called the cumulative distribution function or, more simply, the distribution function of X. Thus the distribution function specifies, for all real values x, the probability that the random variable is less than x.
Sometimes the distribution function F(x) is said to be the integral function of distribution or the integral law of distribution.
Geometrically the distribution function is interpreted as the probability that a random variable X will hit to the left from a given point x.
Example 1. Let a series of distribution of a random variable be given:
Find and represent graphically its distribution function.
Solution: Let’s take different values x and find for them F(x) = P(X < x).
1. If x 1 then obviously F(x) = 0 (and for x = 1, F(1) = P(X < 1) = 0).
2. Let 1 < x 4 (for example, x = 2); F(x) = P(X = 1) = 0,4. Obviously, F(4) = P(X < 4) = 0,4.
3. Let 4 < x 5 (for example, x = 4,2); F(x) = P(X < x) = P(X = 1)+ P(X = 4) = 0,4 + 0,1 = 0,5. Obviously, F(5) = 0,5.
4. Let 5 < x 7. F(x) = [P(X = 1) + P(X = 4)] + P(X = 5) = 0,5 + 0,3 = 0,8. Obviously, F(7) = 0,8.
5. Let x > 7. F(x) = [P(X = 1) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)] + P(X = 7) = 0,8 + 0,2 = 1.
Thus,
This example allows making the following claim: the distribution function of any discrete random variable is a discontinuous step function of which jumps take place in points corresponding to the possible values of the random variable and are equal to the probabilities of these values.
The sum of all jumps is equal to 1.
Properties of a distribution function
1. The distribution function of a random variable is a non-negative function taking on values between 0 and 1: 0 F(x) 1.
2. The distribution function of a random variable is a non-decreasing function for the entire numerical axis, i.e. if x1 < x2 then F(x1) F(x2).
3.
4. The probability of hit of a random variable in an interval [x1, x2) (including x1) is equal to the increment of its distribution function on this interval, i.e.
P(x1 X < x2) = F(x2) – F(x1).
Example 2. The distribution function of a random variable X has the following form:
Find the probability that the random variable will take on a value in the interval [1; 3).
Solution: P(1 X < 3) = F(3) – F(1) = 1 – 1/2 =1/2.
Continuous random variables. Probability density
A random variable X is continuous if its function of distribution is continuous at each point and differentiable everywhere but possibly finitely many points.
The distribution function of a continuous random variable X which is differentiable everywhere but three points of break is shown at the picture.
Theorem. The probability of a separately taken value of a continuous random variable X is equal to zero, i.e. P(X = x1) = 0 for each value x1 of the continuous random variable X.
Corollary. If X is a continuous random variable then probability of hit of the random variable in an interval (x1, x2) doesn’t depend on whether the interval is open or closed, i.e.
The probability density (distribution density or simply density) (x) of a continuous random variable X is the derivative of its distribution function, i.e.
Sometimes the probability density is said to be the differential function or the differential law of distribution.
The graph of probability density (x) is said to be distribution curve.
Example. Let X be a random variable as in Example 2. Find the probability density of the random variable X.
Solution:
The probability density
i.e.
