- •Examination questions Managerial decision making
- •Compare structures and unstructured problems. А)Structured problems b) Unstructure problems
- •Describe the phases of the decision making process.
- •Give two examples of the cognitive limitations.
- •Why the decisions are hard? Quote 4 general reasons (groups of reasons).
- •Decision analysis
- •Compare decision making under uncertainty and under risk.
- •Describe the Principle of Insufficient Reason.
- •10. Describe the Principle of Insufficient Reason.
- •Describe the calculation of the posterior probabilities.
- •Describe the expected value of sampling information.
- •Describe the decision tree.
- •Game theory
- •Multiple criteria decision making
- •Describe one method based on pair comparison.
- •Describe the simple additive weighting method.
- •Madm Advanced methods
- •What is the principle of the topsis method?
- •Describe the priam method and the role of standard levels.
- •Describe the ahp method. For which cases it is suitable?
- •Input-output analysis
- •Describe the quadrants in the input-output table.
- •What is the intermediate consumption in the output-input model?
- •What is ebit and where we can find it in the input-output table?
- •What kind of model is input-output model?
- •How and why we calculate the input-output coefficients?
- •Construct the distribution equations. Markov chains
- •Describe Markov chain as a stochastic process.
- •Queuing theory
- •Inventory control
What is the intermediate consumption in the output-input model?
a. How much material is needed to be consumed to make output
What is ebit and where we can find it in the input-output table?
Earnings before interest and taxes – in the III. quadrant
EBIT (Earning before interests and tax(es))= (Operating Revenue) - (OPEX=operating expence).
EBIT - это и есть PROFIT в input-output table.
НО, если, например, PROFIT у нас не известен то, чтобы найти EBIT нужно. EBIT=Total inputs – (сумма всех чисел в столбце Brewery). Т.е. 140-(5+70+60)=5
СМОТРЕТЬ CREDIT TEST #4, Ex.2.
What kind of model is input-output model?
It is a model that describes the general state of the economy.
How and why we calculate the input-output coefficients?
HOW:
- coefficient A = (aij) = Xij/Xj or Xij=aij*Xj ; aij –считается только для 1го сектора!
aij- number of units of industry “I” required to produce one unit of industry “j”
aij – говорит о том, какова доля отрасли, которая предоставляет ресурсы в общие ресурсы.
- coefficient M = (mkj) = Zkj/Xj or Zkj=mkj*xj
M – доля издержек в общих ресурсах отрасли
WHY:
We do it for the next analysis.
Construct the distribution equations. Markov chains
Describe Markov chain as a stochastic process.
A Markov chain describes a system moving from one state to another under a certain probabilistic rule.
In probability theory and statistics, a Markov process is a stochastic process that satisfies the Markov property.
A Markov chain is a stochastic process on a discrete (finite or countably infinite) space in which the distribution of the next state depends only on the current state. These objects show up in probability and computer science both in discrete-time and continuous-time models. For Markov processes on continuous spaces use markov-process.
What is a transition probability in Markov chain?
Transition probability pij – the probability that the process moves from state i at one stage to state j at the next stage.
Compare absorbing and non-absorbing states in the Markov chains.
Absorbing state: the system will stay in the state for ever
Describe the transition matrix with absorbing states.
The transient matrix P is divided into 4 submatrices:
I …transient probabilties between absorbing states (identity matrix)
O… transient probabilities from absorbing to transient states (zeros)
R …transient probabilities from transient to absorbing states
Q …transient probabilities between transient states
What are the steady state probabilities and how can be obtained?
The steady state behavior means that once the process reaches steady state, the state probabilities do not change
The steady state probability of state i is πi
Queuing theory
Which are the priority rules for coming from the queue to service?
There are several commonly used rules:
First come first served (FCFS).
=First In First Out (FIFO)
Last come first served (LCFS)
= Last In Last Out (LIFO).
Special Priority (PRI)
Random selection of customers for service. (RND)
Provide an example of tandem queues.
Examples: Patients in an emergency room. Passengers prepare for the next flight.
What is a steady state of the queuing system?
In order to achieve steady state, the effective arrival rate must be less than the sum of the effective service rates .Utilization rate: ρ=λ/μ must be <1
Describe the Kendal’s classification of the queuing systems.
Queuing system can be classified by:
• Arrival process.
• Service process.
• Number of servers.
• System size (infinite/finite waiting line).
• Population size
Under which necessary conditions the stochastic process can be modelled as Poisson’s? Explain the conditions!
