3.1 Perfection of system of diagnostics of bankruptcy of the enterprise

All methods absolutely are not exact. Because except for parameters there are other factors which influence a financial solvency of the company: human factor, political, natural cataclysms. There are approaches to problems of techniques of forecasting of bankruptcy.

The first approach, undoubtedly effective at forecasting bankruptcy, has three essential lacks. First, the companies which are experiencing difficulties, in every possible way detain the publication of the reports, and, thus, concrete data can remain years inaccessible.

Secondly, even if data also are informed, they can appear "creatively processed". For the companies in similar circumstances the aspiration of good activity, sometimes leading up before falsification is characteristic. The special skill inherent at all in all skilled researchers Is required to allocate files of the corrected data and to estimate a degree. The third difficulty consists that some parities deduced according to activity of the company, can testify to insolvency while others - to give the basis for the conclusion about stability or even some improvement. In such conditions it is difficult to judge a real state of affairs.

The second approach is based on comparison of attributes of already gone bankrupt companies with those attributes of the "suspicious" company. For last 50 years the set of lists of the gone bankrupt companies is published. Some of them contain their description on tens parameters. Unfortunately, the majority of lists is not ordered by these data on a degree of importance and in one the care of sequence is not shown. Attempt to compensate these lacks is the method of a mark estimation.

Unlike the described "quantitative" approaches to a prediction of bankruptcy as independent it is possible to allocate the "qualitative" approach based on studying of separate characteristics, inherent in the business developing in a direction to bankruptcy. If for the investigated enterprise presence of such characteristics is characteristic, it is possible to give the expert judgment on unfortunate trends of development.

It is obviously possible to allocate following prospects of development of the analysis of a financial condition of bank.

The major prospect of development should become perfection of techniques of the analysis. Perfection of techniques of the analysis should occur on the basis of accumulation of experience of interbank crediting at the Kazakhstan banks. Perfection of techniques rating banks will be connected with development of activity of rating agencies that is caused, first, by their powerful advertising-marketing potential, and secondly, necessity for many banks of reception of international-recognized ratings with the purpose of an establishment of correspondent attitudes with foreign banks. The major help for perfection of techniques of the analysis of a financial condition of banks is the automation of the analysis considered by us in the previous chapter.

Other important direction of development of the remote analysis becomes transition of the Kazakhstan banks to the international standards of drawing up of the reporting. It is known, that the reporting made under the international standards, is more informative and, hence, to more analytical.

Improvement of information base of the analysis can be connected with increase in a transparency of banks. Now on it significant efforts of bank community are directed, and it yields the fruits.

Development and strengthening of institute of bank audit in Kazakhstan should affect in the further quality of the reporting and, accordingly, on the remote analysis.

One of the major directions of development of the bank analysis is automation. The basic consequence of automation is the opportunity for an analyst to concentrate the efforts not on performance of routine settlement procedures, and on perfection of a technique. Automation of the analysis of a financial condition of bank is practically realized in 2 types of programs: specialized program complexes and programs of a general purpose (MS Excel). Specialized program complexes give to users set of advantages, but they are dear enough and often complex in operation. Thus, each bank should solve enough challenge of a choice between these two types of programs for optimum automation of analytical service.

Prospects of development of the analysis of a financial condition of commercial bank contact development of techniques of the analysis, automation, transition of the Kazakhstan banks to the international standards of the financial reporting, increase of a transparency of the credit organizations, development and strengthening of bank audit

As to improve a financial condition of bank it is necessary to support and, whenever possible, to improve positive tendencies and is obligatory to eliminate the negative moments in activity of bank.

To raise a financial condition and to improve the general financial position of bank it is necessary to plan a number of offers on formation of internal financial strategy.

Formation of the strategic purposes of financial activity of bank is a stage of strategic planning which main task is maximization of market cost of bank.

On the basis of financial strategy the financial policy of bank in concrete directions of financial activity is defined.

As a result of the analysis of work of joint-stock company "Halyk bank of Kazakhstan" and its financial condition it has been revealed, that the bank is profitable and its financial position steady since results of the analysis have shown increase almost all parameters of bank.

Reception of the income borrows in the lead position in hierarchy of the purposes of the economic organization. Because of growth of the cost price the bank has received less than the certain share of the income. The given fact speaks that it is necessary or to increase volume of offered services, by expansion of the share in the market, or to reduce constant expenses.

The gain of the greatest share of the market is impossible without its careful studying. In this connection it would be useful to recommend, to the given bank to involve in itself for work of the skilled expert in the field of marketing, to organize well thought over advertising, to expand the list of rendered services and to raise quality of service.

The management of bank efforts of financial policy needs to direct all on re-structuring and modernization, i.e.

1. To sell "superfluous" actives;

2. To accelerate turnover, liberation of resources;

3. To support only perspective directions of the Activity;

4. To develop new directions.

Also the bank can use following actions on management of liquidity:

1. Drawing up of a payment calendar i.e. to plan monetary receipts and deductions for the control of presence of money resources over accounts of bank;

2. An estimation of time of the greatest inflow of a monetary cash within a month, i.e. definition of a time interval of receipt of money resources for finding-out of an opportunity of displacement of a monetary stream in the necessary direction;

3. The control over observance of treaty obligations;

4. The control over "age" debts receivable, i.e. revealing of risky debts and acceptance of measures on its repayment;

5. Expansion of forms of payment and ways of calculations with clients.

For reception of reliable results financial forecasts should be based on strict data and be spent with use of concrete methods of the financial analysis. Forecasting, including financial, allows in some (quite often rather significant) degrees to improve management of bank due to maintenance of coordination of all departments of bank, increase of the control, etc.

The bank should carry out planning and the control over two basic economic areas. It is a question of profitability of its work and a financial position. Therefore the budget (plan) under the income and the financial plan are the central elements of intrafinancial planning.

Further the financial plan is made. It is developed on the basis of comparison of expected payments and expected receipts. Proceeding from it, it is possible to make representation about, whether there will be a financial position of bank satisfactory.

Within a year the need for money resources can essentially change. It means, that even if parameters of annual financial balance testify to sufficient liquidity of bank, the budget with breakdown on quarters or months can show lack of money resources during one or several moments of the period. The following document which is developed in view of parameters of the budget under the income and the financial plan, the financial balance is.

In modern conditions to bank to overcome problems and to survive it is necessary, to show the initiative, enterprise and thrift for improvement of a financial condition and for increase of efficiency of its work

Perfection of system of diagnostics this correct forecasting of bankruptcy of the enterprise. It is possible to find many the different reasons of bankruptcy and to offer possible outputs from crisis by the correct analysis of a financial condition of the enterprise. During studying the enterprise bankruptcy it is possible to make following methods on fulfillment of forecasting of an inconsistency:

Professional approach to the analysis of financial stability, liquidity and solvency.

-copy ways of forecasting (without what or changes) from the western analogues

-create it is more than institutes on liquidation of debtors

-sale of the enterprise to other more favourable and skilled legal person completely unbankrupt it.

If speaks about perfectness for the enterprise that they the following:

-maintenance of their liquidity and solvency on the basis of an optimum combination of own and extra sources of means;

-reception of profit and corresponding level of profitability, sufficient for satisfaction of all needs for the basic, investment and financial activity.

For this purpose the state should proclaim, that its overall objective is macroeconomic regulation and struggle against inflation on the basis of support of national manufacture. In these purposes it is necessary:

-develop system of economic and financial parameters at all levels, and also supports of key economic branches of economy;

-create the conditions providing an opportunity to the enterprises to earn practically absent at many of them own turnaround means;

-acceptance of the economic measures expanding opportunities of the enterprises on use of extra means; in these purposes it is necessary to reduce discount rate NBRK to a world level, to enter the state guarantee under some credits for the separate enterprises;

-arrange on sharp reduction of non-payments and in this connection inefficient forms of calculations (an advance payment, barter, cashes), on introduction of such market tools, as the commercial credit, the bill, the check;

-change a tax policy, having directed it to stimulation of manufacture and investments;

-definition of a degree of liquidity and solvency of the enterprise;

-direct the customs policy on protection of the national manufacturer and the competitive goods