Income from realization

Total assets

К₄ = (6)

Funds turnover

Total assets

К_{5 =} (7)

Critical value of index Z paid off Altman according to statistical sample and has made 2,675.

Table 1 - Degree of probability of bankruptcy

Z model mean	Probability of bankruptcy
1,81 and less From 1,81 to 2,70 from 2,71 to 2,90 3,0 and more	Very high high existing of opportunity very low
Note – Лобанов А. «Энциклопедия финансового риск-менеджера»

This model includes following parameters:

1) profitability of actives;

2) dynamics of profit;

3) factor of a covering of percent under credits;

4) cumulative profitableness;

5) factor of current liquidity;

6) factor of an autonomy;

7) cumulative actives.

Advantage of this model - the maximal accuracy.

The basis for decision-making on an inconsistency (bankruptcy) of the enterprise is the system of criteria established by Regulations about the mechanism of financial and economic improvement, reorganization and liquidation of the insolvent state enterprises in the Republic Kazakhstan, the approved decision of the Cabinet of Republic Kazakhstan from September, 7th, 1994 1002, and also Regulations about the order of an estimation of structure of balance of the enterprise, the approved Ministry of Economics of Republic Kazakhstan from July, 12th, 1995[22, page 45].

According to these Positions on the basis of the Decision of the State Committee of Republic Kazakhstan on management of the state property from June, 26th, 1996 2/IV “About the organization of teamwork of territorial committees on management of state property and the regional commissions on sanitation and liquidations of the insolvent enterprises concerning financial and economic improvement of the insolvent enterprises” the Agency on reorganization of the enterprises at the State Property Committee of Republic Kazakhstan has developed “Methodical recommendations under the profound analysis of a financial condition of the insolvent enterprise”, approved by director of this state body on October, 5th, 1995

The purpose of carrying out of the analysis of a financial position of the enterprise is the substantiation of the decision on a recognition of structure of balance unsatisfactory, and the enterprises - insolvent [23, page 67].

The analysis and estimation of sufficiency of structure of balance are spent on the basis of following parameters:

1) factor of current liquidity.

The factor of current liquidity characterizes the general security of the enterprise turnaround means for conducting economic activities and duly repayment of current obligations of the enterprise;

2) factor of security own means. It characterizes presence of own turnaround means at the enterprise, necessary for its financial stability.

The basis for a recognition of structure of balance of the enterprise unsatisfactory, and the enterprise - insolvent is performance of one of following conditions:

- The factor of current liquidity on the end of the accounting period matters less than 2,0;

- The factor of security own means for the end of the accounting period matters less than 0,1 [24, page 515].

CHAPTER 2 THE ANALYSIS OF A FINANCIAL CONDITION OF THE ENTERPRISE AND THE FORECAST OF PROBABILITY OF ITS BANKRUPTCY ON AN EXAMPLE OF JOINT-STOCK COMPANY HALYK BANK KAZAKHSTAN.