2.3 Contours of anti-inflationary policy in the future.

 Overcoming inflation remains one of the main tasks of the anti-crisis strategy. If its decision is necessary to consider the causes and consequences of inflation, who thus bear the brunt and losses , and the impact of measures developed by other elements of the anti-crisis strategy , primarily in production and employment . Reducing inflation to a relatively "safe" level (15-20 % per year , or 1.2 % per month) without reducing the production and falling living standards is possible only by increasing production efficiency and quality control . These objectives can be achieved in stages over time .

 In the first five years (2009 - 2013 gg.) Threat of inflation remains critically acute . The extent of its reduction to a decisive extent on the terms and conditions for implementing the planned strategy . Increased demand ( rising incomes, consumption and investment ) , cancel or weaken the effect of " nominal anchor " (in particular , - a fixed exchange rate ) , increased protectionism , measures to support financial enterprises will inevitably contribute to higher inflation. It also will increase " of demand " component. This superimposed inflation expectations , driven by the change of economic policy . The important point is this institutional factor: the availability of powerful " lobbies " in the executive and legislative combination of these factors can lead to a rapid unwinding of inflation up to 15-20 % per month. That would mean a complete failure all anti-crisis strategy with obvious negative social , economic and political consequences . Therefore, the objectives of anti-inflationary policy should be:

 - Predictability of inflation : we can not allow it to accelerate more than 3-5 % per month on average in 2009 - 2010 . ;

 - The creation of institutional and financial prerequisites to reduce inflationary potential : in particular , it is necessary to break the inflationary spiral " appreciation of costs - the price increase " - an active role should be played by the State .

 In 2010 - 2012 years. expansion of final demand will require special gain anti-inflationary action in order to stay on the path smooth reduction of inflation. At this time, a key objective of the anti-inflationary policy is to reduce inflation to levels that do not impede the growth of investment activity, ie 35-40 % per year. To solve these problems it is necessary to implement a set of measures aimed at deterring and regulation of all three components of inflation: demand, cost and expectations.

1. In order to stabilize price expectations should be regularly set targets inflation and money supply by quarter , to develop a system of actions against industries and enterprises that violate the established guidelines.

2 . Appropriate to introduce direct restrictive measures against rising prices in industries - monopolists . Need to encourage cartel agreements between suppliers and consumers .

3 . It is important to limit the budget deficit level of 4 - 5%. Increasing public investment should take place in parallel with the expansion of the revenue base budget ( primarily due to increased tax revenues , especially from foreign trade and excise taxes ) .

4 . Need to keep interest rates at a level slightly above the rate of inflation , thus stimulate their differentiation (increase of deposits ) to slow turnover of the money supply . Wiring should debug mechanisms of centralized credits and grants through authorized banks to prevent the transfer of funds into speculative operations in the money markets .

5 . In the industry for the normalization circuit working capital and development bill circulation is advisable to tighten measures against rising prorochennoy debtor - payables , which stimulates inflation.

6. It is important to limit the percentage of income intermediaries in retail prices of consumer goods. It is estimated that in some cases it is 60-70 %.

7. To bind the money income and reducing the share of cash in the aggregate money supply is necessary to extend the system of government securities to the public and the state deposit insurance . Should take measures to limit the cash money in circulation entities.

8. In order to regulate income is important to strengthen control over the allocation of wages to the cost of production ; block concealment of income , transfer of salary deposits and payment of its currency .

9. For the first time it is advisable to preserve the " currency corridor ", in order to subsequently switch to a policy of stabilizing the real exchange rate.

10 . To combat the seasonal surge in inflation should encourage futures trading seasonal goods , including agricultural products and fuel.

 In the final period (2012 - 2016 gg.) Anti-inflationary policy goal should be to reduce inflation to socio- safe level : 1-2%. Monthly. This requires a radical reduction in the inflationary potential of the economy , changes in relative prices , structural shifts in favor of investment and consumer industries complexes. Stabilization of the dynamics of production and investment makes it possible to gain a deflationary monetary policy focused on the real economy and improving living standards .