кейси для індивідуальної роботи 2014 н.р. / STARBUCKS CORP IN CONSUMER FOODSERVICE

MARKET ASSESSMENT

Specialist coffee shops drive cafés/bars category growth

MARKET ASSESSMENT

Specialist coffee shops continue to grow

While specialist coffee shops are still a niche factor on a global level, accounting for less than 8% of total cafés/bars sales in 2010, it is an important category in regions such as North America and Australasia, where it accounts for 53% and 29% of total cafés/bars sales, respectively, led above all by market leader Starbucks. Indeed, the overwhelming dominance of North America owes much to the performance of Starbucks, which saw extraordinary growth over 2005-2010, a process which has proven a catalyst for the emergence of a flourishing specialist coffee shops category there.

Coffee shops are a key growth area in most major markets, outgrowing other cafés/bars categories in every region in 2010, as demand for comfortable, upscale social spaces continues to surge. While most markets can boast a pre-existing café/bar culture of some kind, these often tend to be dominated by older men, with specialist coffee shops offering a pleasant, socially-acceptable environment for young people, women, and non-drinkers to meet. Likewise, the cachet of premium coffee is a key sales driver in emerging markets, particularly for young, upwardly-mobile consumers looking to spend on global brands.

MARKET ASSESSMENT

Growth opportunities across all regions

All regions are expected to offer growth opportunities for specialist coffee shops. The comparatively mature North American market will remain an important growth contributor due to its sheer size, predicted to account for nearly a quarter of global category growth over 2010-2015. Starbucks still derives the bulk of sales (76% in 2010) from North America, where it bounced back from a dismal performance in 2009 due to the successful implementation of various turnaround measures. Combined with the continued opportunities for further category growth, Starbucks is in a strong position to continue to grow its important North American business over the coming years.

Starbucks is however also keen to capitalise on international growth opportunities. Indeed, Latin America and Middle East and Africa are expected to see the most dynamic growth over the forecast period; in part because of their small bases, these markets offer long-term opportunities for Starbucks. While growth in Asia Pacific and Western Europe is not as optimistic in percentage terms, the regions combined are projected to add US$2.6 billion to the market, thus also offering significant opportunities for growth.

Bubble size shows company share of region 2010, range displayed: 2.3-71.2%.

CATEGORY AND GEOGRAPHIC OPPORTUNITIES

Specialist coffee shops - a global growth story

Perhaps the most important fact regarding the ongoing expansion in specialist coffee shops is the degree to which this is a truly global phenomenon. While Starbucks’ overwhelming presence in the US skews these figures slightly, the category continues to expand in every region; even in Western Europe, home to tens of thousands of traditional cafés, McDonald’s McCafé concept has grown dynamically, particularly in Germany, where consumers continue to respond to the combination of convenience, atmosphere, and widespread availability the tie to McDonald’s outlets provides.

Indeed, in a number of major markets (US excluded), specialist coffee shops have emerged as a compelling alternative to deeply-entrenched traditional café categories. This is particularly true in Asian markets such as Japan and South Korea, as well as a number of Middle Eastern markets, where cafés have traditionally been no-frills affairs, selling low-priced coffee or tea and with a customer base that is skewed heavily towards men. While these types of outlets are unlikely to disappear, specialist coffee shops have carved out a rapidly-growing niche by appealing to women, students, professionals, and everyone else seeking a more upscale, inclusive experience. Likewise, high-end specialist coffee shops have emerged as a place to see and be seen in markets from Egypt to China, filling an important social niche, above all for young people.

That said, competition with traditional cafés works both ways; in markets such as France, branded specialist coffee shops remain a small niche, drawing a large portion of sales from expatriates and traffic through semi-captive locations where competition is limited. Here again, the issue is one of what specialist coffee shops offer relative to traditional cafés. While the quick-service takeaway component is a vital traffic driver in markets with a significant morning business, in markets where a larger part of consumption takes place during the time outside the morning period, where eat-in traffic is more prevalent, cafés often serve existing demand quite well, with much of the differentiation from specialist coffee shops coming from location; once again, McCafé’s success in Germany owes much to its growth through existing McDonald’s outlets, allowing it to serve existing demand from McDonald’s customers.

CATEGORY AND GEOGRAPHIC OPPORTUNITIES

New entrants emerge in specialist coffee shops

CATEGORY AND GEOGRAPHIC OPPORTUNITIES

International expansion integral part of Starbucks’ growth strategy

CATEGORY AND GEOGRAPHIC OPPORTUNITIES

Asia Pacific a target region for expansion

Starbucks has already achieved a relatively widespread presence across Asian markets, and the company is keen to further expand its footprint in the region.

By far the most important revenue generator is Japan, which accounted for over half of Starbucks’ total sales in the region. However, Japan is also the most mature market with poor prospects for further growth; over 2010-2015, category sales are predicted to decline by over US$300 million. This makes it imperative that the company taps into the (longer-term) growth opportunities offered elsewhere.

A key target market for Starbucks is China, one of the most dynamic markets where the company is the dominant player. An attractive growth market is also South Korea, where category sales are predicted to increase by over US$1 billion over 2010-2015, growth Starbucks can tap into if it manages to defend its leading position against rapidly-growing rivals such as Angel-in-us Coffee and Caffé Bene.

Starbucks is in the process of entering the Indian market with the first outlet due to open in 2012, and has also set its sights on Vietnam where it aims to open its first outlet in 2013.

Bubble size shows company share of market 2010, range displayed: 20.4-63.3%.

CATEGORY AND GEOGRAPHIC OPPORTUNITIES

Ambitious plans for China

Specialist coffee shops is a small but rapidly-growing niche in China’s consumer foodservice market. Sales were less than US$15 million in 2000 but rose to over US$350 million by 2010 and are set to increase by a further 70% over 2010-2015.

Starbucks has been a major driver of this growth, more than doubling its network size to over 400 outlets over 2006-2010 and with ambitious further expansion plans; the company aims to grow to 1,500 outlets by 2015, expanding to more secondand third-tier cities.

Starbucks considers China to be among the most attractive growth markets due to the rapidly-growing middle class and ongoing urbanisation. Midand high-income urban consumers in their 20s, 30s and 40s who are generally attracted to Western lifestyle trends have started to embrace specialist coffee shops, welcoming the concept of socialising over coffee.

Competition is set to increase, from players such as McCafé and Costa Coffee, however at this early stage of the category’s development a larger number of players may in fact be beneficial in terms of promoting the “coffee house” concept in a market with no traditional coffee culture.