• I calculate last forecasted y using formula:

Coefficient Y interception+Coefficient Variable X* Net national disposable income value in 2010.

• Then calculate L and U of confidence interval

L= Last forecasted Y-Standard error*T crit

U= Last forecasted Y+Standard error*T crit

• After that calculations I obtain table of confidence interval

Values of before the last one row describe that emperical doesn't lie in the interval, then the future forecasting won't have the correct figures.

Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Empirical	Empirical>Lower 95%	Empirical<Upper 95%
0,0000000002339	0,0000000002543	0,0000000002556	Y	N

Conclusion

In this work I have tried to apply the model of consumption function to the economy of the United States. I estimated the coefficients of the model for forecasting the level and future changes of final consumption expenditure of the country with its net national disposable income. As the result we got model of this general form:

Y(t)= -0,0000000000108+1,02*X(t)+u(t)

But despite that fact that all tests were passed and even GQ test, our model isn’t so good for application in case of failed adequacy, then it’s not possible and reasonable to use it for forecasting.

Creative Work:

The application of consumption function to the economy of the United States.

Teacher: Tregub I.V.

Student: Suslov M.Y.

Group: IFF 3-2