Population

Pre-reading Task:

1. Before reading the text, can you tell why are sociologists interested in demographic data?

2. Look up the following words in the dictionary to make sure the meaning is clear to you and you know how to pronounce them correctly:

demographic, data, sociologist, migration, increase/to increase, adequacy, environmental, census, potential, reproduction, structure, ethnicity.

Population data help us to understand social life. Sociologists arc interested in relaling these data to age, income, education, race, and other factors. Sociologists are particularly interested in the numbers of births, deaths, and migrations. Changes in these figures both reflect and cause changes in social institutions. Population data also are relevant when we assess the adequacy of a society's environmental resources and the impact of population numbers on an ecological setting. Although survey data are useful for establishing public opinion and attitudes, the conclusions of these surveys become more meaningful when placed in the context of changes in the demographic structure of a society.

Demography is the study of how births, deaths, and migration affect the composition, size, and distribution of populations. Demography has two aspects: 1) it is used in a broad way to describe social structure and 2) it is used in a more micro way to understand individuals and their actions. That is, demography has both structural and action perspectives.

How do sociologists study populations?

Demographic analysis requires accurate and detailed information from a variety of sources so that population distributions can be assessed and future trends can be projected. The most important source of demographic data is the national census, which counts the total number of people as well as the numbers of people in various regions. Many nations conduct elaborate censuses periodically, but a full census is not always practical. Many less developed nations have no established census programs. In such situations, demographers use surveys and ethnographic methods to arrive at indications of population patterns. Censuses often are the subject of political controversy because they may have implications for the distributions of power.

The U.S. Census may not be entirely accurate. For example, about seven million people were overlooked in the 1980 census. Immigrants, particularly illegal aliens, arc undercounted. Undercounts also are prevalent in poor neighborhoods. Overall the poor, the young, aliens, males, and minorities are more difficult to count than other people: these categories represent the more mobile groups in our society. Other problems with the census include the wording of questions, the opinion that the census violates privacy rights, and reservations regarding the confidentiality of the data.

The Census Bureau is interested primarily in the number of births, deaths, and migrations. The crude birthrate is the number of births per 1,000 people per year. This rate has varied dramatically over the last 50 years.

Sociologists also distinguish between fecundity and the fertility rate. The former reflects the biological potential for reproduction; the latter reflects the number of actual births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44. Birth and fertility rates in the United Slates have been declining steadily for many years. The rate of decline varies according to socioeconomic status. Since 1972 the U.S. birthrate has been below its replacement level of 2.1 children per woman of childbearing age. In addition, family size was decreased because of the high cost of bearing and rearing children, women's increased participation in the labor force, and the tendency for career-minded women to marry later and to postpone starting families. Several factors influence a nation's birthrate: 1) the desire for children, 2) the number of fertile women m the population, 3) the marriage rate and age at marriage, and 4) the availability of effective contraceptives.

The crude death rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 people during a given year. This rate varies considerably by age and ethnicity. The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths among infants under one year of age per 1,000 live births in a given year. Although the infant morality rate of 10.8 in 1984 is the lowest ever recorded in this country, it is still higher than in several other developed countries. Life expectancy is the average number of years of life remaining for an individual of a given age, life span is the maximum number of years a human being can live. Life expectancy has increased dramatically in the last century; life span has not. Changes in mortality have had the strongest impact on the demographic history of the human population.

The migration rate is the difference between the number of people who leave a place and those who arrive each year, per 1,000 people. Emigration is migration from one's native land; immigration is migration to a new country. Internal migration-movement within a country-is also an important demographic phenomenon. People migrate for a variety of reasons including disasters, political and religions persecution, and the desire for adventure. The United States has only five percent of the world's population but takes in about 50 percent of the world's immigrants.

About 17 percent of the U.S. population moves every year: more than six percent move to a new state or country. Those who move still tend to move west. The climate, the availability of space, and other resources have attracted businesses and people who want to live in an area with more amenities. This shift in regional population distribution has caused a shift in regional political power.

Many cities are losing population to adjacent suburbs, which are the fastest-growing places of residence. In addition, black Americans increasingly have become urban dwellers. During the 1970’s, Americans frequently responded to the problems of urban density by moving to smaller towns and rural areas. This growth in small towns and rural areas marked a major turning point in the regional development of the United States.

The impact of the population dynamics outlined above can be summarized in the population pyramid. This pyramid graphically portrays the age distribution of a society and usually the sex distribution as well. Population pyramids for different points in time show the changes in the age structure in a society. Clearly, population distributions reflect structural forces at work.

3. How has world population growth changed? What have been some of the consequences of these changes?

Several hundred thousand years were needed for the world's population to reach one billion. The second billion, however, was reached by 1930, the third by 1960. the fourth by 1975, and the fifth by 1987. Population experts predict a 6.2 billion world population by the year 2000. Even -so, the world's population is growing more slowly now than in the 1960s and 1970s.

The density of a populalion is the number of people who live in a given area; population density differs dramatically among the 50 states. Density can have dramatic effects on people's subjective experiences of life.

In 1798, Thomas Malthus suggested that no population can continue to grow indefinitely because population increases geometrically, while food supplies increase only arithmetically. Hence while population doubles, the food supply increases by only one unit. Malthus believed that people simply would run out of food and that the only solution was to marry late and to have fewer children. The evidence, however, has not supported his thesis. Malthus failed to anticipate the full possibilities of the Industrial Revolution and did not foresee the technological revolution in agriculture. Marx saw the situation differently: whereas Malthus placed the blame for overpopulation and poverty on the individual members of society, Marx saw the issue in terms of underproduction. The unequal distribution of social weatlh under capilalism made it seem that a "natural" limit on population was necessary. Marx suggested socialism as a solution to the problem of overpopulation.

Sociologists describe three stages in the development of the population structure: all three reflect the demographic transition. Both the birthrate and the death rate are high and stable in Stage One. Stage Two is a transitional stage, with a continued high birthrate but a declining death rate. This stage has the potential for a high rate of population growth. In Stage Three both the birthrate and the death rate are low and are in balance again. The significant increase in the chances for infant survival allows people to have fewer children. The demographic transition rejects past events in industrialized nations, it also is an indication of what might happen elsewhere.

As death rates in developing countries decline, the population should grow significantly because fertility rates remain high. In many countries, however, the falling death rate is not accompanied by a shift to an industrial economy. Hence such countries will continue to experience a need for many children. In short, the demographic transition that occurred in the industrialized countries of the West does not apply directly to many currently developing nations. People in these societies have not yet bad the time to adjust the religious and cultural values that shape the birthrate.

The world is dividing sharply into regions where the population is growing slowly (I percent) and where it is growing rapidly (2.2 percent or more). These growth rates have an enormous long-term impact on population because population growth is exponential. That is, the increase is based not on the original figure but on the doubling and redoubling of the population within a given amount of time.

Population growth has significant implications for the food supply and for living standards. Nearly half of the world's population is undernourishcd to the point of low vitality and high vulnerability to disease; millions are near starvation. Although the world produces more than enough food to feed its population, half goes to feed animals, much is left to rot or to be eaten by pests, and much is wasted or consumed in excess. Significant advances have been made in food production, but this new agriculture imposes costs as well. For example, it requires extensive use of fertilizers, which often are made from oil. The most realistic goal for the future is to reduce population growth and to aid developing nations in becoming more self-reliant.

Living standards are bleak in most developing countries. The unemployment rate is very high, cities become large ghettos, and sanitation problems develop. As a result, education and health care are virtually nonexistent. The destruction of the environment has been an additional misfortune for developing countries.

There arc conflicting perspectives regarding the direction of the world's population trends. One appraisal is pessimistic, suggesting that a continuation of current economic trends will result in declining living standards for nearly half of the world's people, primarily in Third World nations. According to this perspective, rapidly growing populations that place pressure on limited resources are bringing the world to the edge of an environmental crisis, thereby impairing the global economy. The optimistic view suggests that improved technology has increased both the quantity and the quality of life and will continue to do so.

Changes in the world population growth rate have implications for women's status. The status of women remains low In most traditional societies; whatever status women possess derives primarily from marriage and mothering. Reducing the birthrates in such societies clearly involves a dramatic change in women's roles; people will not change their patterns of childbearing until they have reasons to do so. Such reasons might include a reduction in infant mortality, the expansion of basic education, and participation in the labor force. The status of women also has been influenced significantly by the availability of contraceptives, although they arc still not available for the majority of the world's population.

1 nitty-gritty - практически важный; будничный, но жизненно необходимый

2 the end justifies the means: it doesn’t matter what methods you use: success is the only important thing.

3 lateral thinking: thinking a creative way, making unusual connection.

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