4. Theory of danger and risk. Analysis of the level of human security in the world today.
Danger - events, information, processes, objects that can cause unwanted effects.
LS task is to study all possible potential dangers and ensure such conditions under which they are sold.
Hidden (potential) danger manifests itself under certain conditions often difficult to predict and implemented in the form of emergency (ES), illness or personal injury.
Taxonomy of dangers - classification and systematization of phenomena, processes, information, objects that can cause damage.
Dangers are classified by:
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Identifying dangers - identify the type of hazard and the establishment of the characteristics needed to develop measures for its elimination or disaster.
The range of dangers - a list of names, terms, indexed by individual attributes.
Quantification of risks - the introduction of quantitative characteristics for assessing the degree (level) of danger. The most common quantitative assessment of risk is a risk.
Quantifying estimate of the danger is calles the risk
Risk - is the ratio of certain manifestations of actual danger to their possible theoretical numbers over time.
Risk - frequency of danger realization.
Risk is the companion of any human physical activity. It is necessary to distinguish between legitimate, acceptable risk, which is justified in many activities and undue risk.
Methods for determining the risk:
Engineering - based on statistics, frequency calculations manifestation dangers probabilistic safety assessment and to build a "tree" of hazards;
Model - based on building models of the impact of hazards both on an individual and on the social and professional groups;
Expert - followed by the probably of various events defined by experienced specialists-experts;
Sociology (Sociometric rating) - based on a survey of population and workers.
These methods should be used comprehensively.
For statistical method risk is calculated by the formula:
w
hereR
– the risk for the certain period of the time,
n – number of actual manifestations of risk (injuries, accidents, disasters)
N – theoretically possible number of dangers to this type of activity or object
EXAMPLE. In 1998 in Ukraine died in the domestic sphere 68,271 people. In production died 1550 people and injured - 47,530 people.
The total population as of 1998 - 50.1 million people are employed - 14.8057 million people.
The
risk of fatal injuries in the home: Rdt. home. = 68271/50100000 =
1363 * 
.
The risk of fatal injury at work: Rdt.work. = 1550/14805700 = 104.7 * .
The risk of injury in the workplace: Rtr.wrkp. = 47530/14805700 = 3210 * .
Acceptable
risk - the risk is normalized in the
world (
.).
Acceptable risk - is a compromise between the level of security and the ability to achieve it.
Safety - a condition in which a certain probability (risk) is excluded realization of the potential dangers.
Providing the safety - a complex process, which can be divided into elementary components, assumptions, ideas, called principles.
planning,
control, management, feedback, staffing, responsibilities
principles incompatibility,
ergonomics, rational organization of work and rest, compensation and
others.
Legal principles –fixed by the law rules that provide an acceptable level of safety.
Orienting principles - the fundamental ideas that define the search direction sound decisions and serve as a methodological and information base.
Technical principlesaimed at preventing the direct action of hazards and are based on the use of physical laws.
Managerial called principles governing the relationship and the relationship between the individual stages and phases of process safety. These include: planovist, control, management, feedback, staffing, responsibility.
Organizationalare the principles by which implemented the provisions involving science-based solutions. This incompatibility principles, ergonomics, rational organization of work and rest, compensation and others.
Conclusion.
- Identification of dangers - dangers identification with their quantitative characteristics and coordinates.
- Predictions manifestation dangers based on the theory of probability and statistics.
- Achieving an acceptable level of manifestation dangers.
- The prevention and elimination of negative incidents.
- Development and systematization of rules of life and activity.
Deep study, comprehensive investigation manifestation dangers detailed risk analysis and implementation of rules and regulations can reduce the negative impact on human system "man - machine - environment" and reduce security risks to an acceptable level.