160 Chapter 9

2. Modeling the World's Climate

Will global warming turn green fields into desert? Will the hole in the atmosphere's ozone layer repair itself? These are among the problems tackled by simulations on supercomputers. Climate

modelers use numerical simulations and complex calculations. At the core of today's simulations of climate are the General Circulation Models (GCM). Used by scientists around the world, this method of modeling the earth's climate is based on a set of fundamental

to tackle — to take action in order to deal with укр. працювати над розв'язанням (вирішенням) core (of) — the most important and central part of anything укр. стрижень, сутність, суть, ядро

equations. The method involves dividing the atmosphere into a series of three-dimensional boxes (grid-cells or grid-points), and then solving these equations for each box.

Perhaps one of the most far-reaching questions that climate modelers today are addressing is

the greenhouse effect and its influence on global warming. The greenhouse effect is the tendency of certain gases in the atmosphere, notably carbon dioxide, to trap heat below

greenhouse — укр. парник notably — especially, particularly укр. особливо ж, а надто

them in the same way that glass traps heat in a greenhouse. This is a key question because it can dramatically affect environment and society.

Climate modeling has its sister science, numerical forecasting of the weather in terms of temperatures, winds, and precipitation. Most of the basic formulae derive from Newton's laws, and a simple climatic model can be created from just a few equations: e.g. the second law of

motion, conservation of mass, the first law of thermodynamics etc. These equations were first used to model the atmosphere in the 1920s by a British scientist, Lewis F. Richardson. He developed «computing forms» to solve them for different locations on the globe. He envisioned a large amphitheater representing

in terms of — with regard to укр. у термінах; з точки зору; у розумінні; з урахуванням precipitation — укр. опади (метеорол.) to envision — to see in the mind as a future possibility Synonym: to foresee укр. передбачати

the world, locations around the hall representing different geographic regions. A sort of «computing amphitheater» came into existence in the 1950s with the birth of the Eniac computer at Princeton University in New Jersey. Weather simulation was one of the first major problems run on this early computer and ever since then climate and weather modeling have been among the first applications transported to the «supercomputer» of each era. A primitive climate model

was developed in 1956, and in the early 1960s, the first full-scale GCMs were developed. Today, there are well over two dozen of these general circulation models in the world. Researchers would like to couple other earth systems with GCM. Topography, ground and

full-scale — укр. у повному обсязі

to couple — to join together, connect укр.

з'єднувати

terrestrial — укр. наземний

marine — укр. морський

surface water hydrology, terrestrial ecosystems, marine biochemistry are all being modeled separately today and could, if coupled with today's GCMs, improve them greatly.

Exercise 8.

One result of the U.S. Environmental Protection agency (EPA) activities is labeling all products made with chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Do you think such labeling is necessary for our country? Do you think special return and recycle programs (e.g for batteries) are a must? Discuss these points with your colleagues.

WARNING

Manufactured with CFC — 113 and/or l,l,l,Trichloroethane; these substances harm public health and environment by destroying ozone in the upper atmosphere.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency