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Drachuk, Ovinova, Lebedeva ColecoCS FM4-1.docx
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Exhibit 8. Calculation Recovery Solvency Ratio

 

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

Current ratio

2,669

2,212

2,068

1,360

1,333

2,583

1,368

1,075

RSR

1,220

1,070

0,857

0,673

0,979

0,988

0,611

0,269

Recovery Solvency Ratio shows the firm’s ability to renew its paying capacity over half a year period. If it’s less than 1,00 company has no real opportunity of solvency recovery in next 6 months. In the light of restrictions on unsecured indebtedness and impossibility of raising new funds company might try to restructure its expense.

We chose to calculate sales forecasts using an average sales growth figure from the last seven years. The average rate at sales increases from year to year is 6,02%. We used this figure to estimate sales for the following five years.

Exhibit 9. Computation of Future Cash Flow (1/3)

 

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

 

Sales

510 380

596 498

774 860

776 002

500 658

504 483

625 000

Average

Implied growth rate

16,87%

29,90%

0,15%

-35,48%

0,76%

23,89%

6,02%

The next number listed on the income statement is the Cost of Sales. To get an accurate forecast of the Cost of Sales, we chose to calculate the average Cost of Sales divided by sales.

Exhibit 10. Computation of Future Cash Flow (2/3)

 

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

Average

Cost of goods sold

54,83%

67,69%

65,13%

52,51%

64,03%

64,53%

61,45%

Tax Expense is obviously just a tax rate multiplied by the income before taxes. The average tax rate is 27,38%.

Exhibit 11. Computation of Future Cash Flow (3/3)

 

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

Average

Tax Rate

47,46%

70,09%

10,50%

30,81%

5,42%

0,00%

27,38%

Since Coleco might miss interest payments of $10 million due on debentures on April 1, 1987 and another $4 million due on May 1, 1987, reduction of SG&A Expense should be the primary driver for company’s recovering. Let’s take the interest expense growth as a complicated percentage on the 1987 basis (9,7%), and try to cut administrative expenses by a half and limit the growth by sales increasing (6,02% per year).

The Cash Flow Forecast with the implemented suggestion presented in the table below.

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