- •Exhibit 1. Screening Ratios
- •Exhibit 2. Growth Ratios, y-t-y percentage changes
- •Exhibit 3. Financial Analysis (1/2)
- •Exhibit 4. Financial Ratio Analysis (2/2)
- •Exhibit 5. Calculation of Additional Fund Needed
- •Exhibit 6. Price Performance
- •Exhibit 7. Calculation of Altman's z-score model
- •Exhibit 8. Calculation Recovery Solvency Ratio
- •Exhibit 9. Computation of Future Cash Flow (1/3)
- •Exhibit 10. Computation of Future Cash Flow (2/3)
- •Exhibit 11. Computation of Future Cash Flow (3/3)
- •Exhibit 12. Forecast of Adjusted Future Cash Flow
Exhibit 8. Calculation Recovery Solvency Ratio
|
1980 |
1981 |
1982 |
1983 |
1984 |
1985 |
1986 |
1987 |
Current ratio |
2,669 |
2,212 |
2,068 |
1,360 |
1,333 |
2,583 |
1,368 |
1,075 |
RSR |
1,220 |
1,070 |
0,857 |
0,673 |
0,979 |
0,988 |
0,611 |
0,269 |
Recovery Solvency Ratio shows the firm’s ability to renew its paying capacity over half a year period. If it’s less than 1,00 company has no real opportunity of solvency recovery in next 6 months. In the light of restrictions on unsecured indebtedness and impossibility of raising new funds company might try to restructure its expense.
We chose to calculate sales forecasts using an average sales growth figure from the last seven years. The average rate at sales increases from year to year is 6,02%. We used this figure to estimate sales for the following five years.
Exhibit 9. Computation of Future Cash Flow (1/3)
|
1982 |
1983 |
1984 |
1985 |
1986 |
1987 |
1988 |
|
Sales |
510 380 |
596 498 |
774 860 |
776 002 |
500 658 |
504 483 |
625 000 |
Average |
Implied growth rate |
16,87% |
29,90% |
0,15% |
-35,48% |
0,76% |
23,89% |
6,02% |
The next number listed on the income statement is the Cost of Sales. To get an accurate forecast of the Cost of Sales, we chose to calculate the average Cost of Sales divided by sales.
Exhibit 10. Computation of Future Cash Flow (2/3)
|
1982 |
1983 |
1984 |
1985 |
1986 |
1987 |
Average |
Cost of goods sold |
54,83% |
67,69% |
65,13% |
52,51% |
64,03% |
64,53% |
61,45% |
Tax Expense is obviously just a tax rate multiplied by the income before taxes. The average tax rate is 27,38%.
Exhibit 11. Computation of Future Cash Flow (3/3)
|
1982 |
1983 |
1984 |
1985 |
1986 |
1987 |
Average |
Tax Rate |
47,46% |
70,09% |
10,50% |
30,81% |
5,42% |
0,00% |
27,38% |
Since Coleco might miss interest payments of $10 million due on debentures on April 1, 1987 and another $4 million due on May 1, 1987, reduction of SG&A Expense should be the primary driver for company’s recovering. Let’s take the interest expense growth as a complicated percentage on the 1987 basis (9,7%), and try to cut administrative expenses by a half and limit the growth by sales increasing (6,02% per year).
The Cash Flow Forecast with the implemented suggestion presented in the table below.