Формирование матрицы данных за совместный период для построения

пространственной модели (∑mj≥0.8m). m – общее число станций в районе, mj –число станций в j-ый год.

								Код станции
							2363
Год	23146	23242	23256	23330	23365	23552	1	23662	23724	23734	23849	23867	23933	23946	23955
1951	-25.4	-25.2	-27.1	-22.9	-27.7	-25.6	-21.7	-26.8	-19.4	-21.8	-21.6	-23.8	-19.6	-21.1	-22.7
1952	-25	-24	-26	-21.5	-26.3	-22.9	-16.2	-22.8	-15.3	-16.9	-17.4	-18.3	-13.1	-16.3	-17.1
1953	-25.2	-25.2	-25.6	-25	-24.1	-23	-21.6	-22.2	-17.7	-20.1	-19	-19.3	-19	-18.8	-19.3
1954	-22.8	-22.4	-25.6	-20.2	-26.1	-23	-19.6	-23.8	-19.9	-20.2	-22.4	-22.3	-19.1	-22.5	-23
1955	-15		-16.2	-16	-16.2	-15.1	-14.8	-15.5	-13	-14.3	-14.2	-15.2	-12	-14.1	-15.3
1956	-23.4	-22.9	-25.1	-21.5	-24.9	-21.6	-21.3	-21.8	-19.4	-20.7	-20.1	-19.4	-20.6	-19.8	-19.6
1957	-24.2	-23.1	-25.3	-20.7	-25.1	-22.1	-20.3	-22.2	-20.1	-21.9	-21.5	-20.9	-19.8	-21.2	-21.2
1958	-21.6	-21.9	-23.9	-22	-23.8	-21.3	-19	-21.4	-15.9	-16.8	-18.4	-20.5	-16.2	-18.5	-20.5
1959	-22.2	-22.2	-23.6	-19.9	-23.4	-21.1	-16.9	-20.9	-16.6	-17.9	-18.3	-19.4	-15	-17.9	-19.2
1960	-29	-29.1	-32.7	-28.3	-33.5	-31.2	-25.8	-31.2	-23	-24.9	-26.1	-27.6	-24.3	-25.4	-26.7
1961	-25.1	-24.3	-28.8	-20.2	-30.2	-25.9	-17.9	-26.4		-18	-18.7	-21.3	-16.2	-18.5	-19.8
1962	-21.2	-20.2	-20.8	-19.8	-18.8	-17.3	-15.2	-16.3	-12.8	-14.6	-13.6	-14.8	-13.3	-13.1	-13.6
1963	-24.4	-24.2	-24.3	-25	-23.5	-22.9	-22.8	-21.8	-21.2	-22.1	-22.2	-20.5	-22.2	-21.1	-20.4
1964	-27.9	-28.6	-29.5	-29.6	-27.9	-28.8	-26.9	-24.4	-23.4	-25.1	-23.6	-18.8	-23.8	-21.2	-19.6
1965	-24	-24.4	-27	-23.2	-27.7	-25.8	-21.6	-25.7	-20.9	-21.1	-22.1	-22.9	-20.8	-21.1	-21.9
1966	-24.6	-23.7	-27.8	-21.9	-29.3	-25.2	-19.5	-27.1	-19.5	-20.6	-20.5	-22.1	-20	-20.1	-20.5
1967	-29.6	-28.3	-29.5	-25.6	-28.9	-24.9	-22.4	-24.2	-20.3	-21.6	-21.2	-21	-21.2	-20.7	-20.5
1968	-24.3	-24.8	-27.1	-28.8	-28.2	-27.9	-26	-28.6	-21.8	-21.7	-23.7	-26.1	-26.3	-23.1	-24.4
1969	-30.4	-31.6	-34.5	-29.8	-36.1	-35.6	-29.7	-36.5	-29.9	-29.2	-31.8	-33	-27.6	-31.9	-32
1970	-28.6	-28.6	-31.4	-29.4	-30.4	-28.8	-25.7	-28.1	-24.6	-25.2	-25.3	-25.5	-22.7	-24.6	-24.4
1971	-28.2	-27.5	-29.5	-24.3	-28.3	-25.4	-20.1	-24.6	-17.9	-19.3	-19.2	-19.1	-16.3	-18.3	-18.4
1972	-26.9	-27.6	-30.3	-26.8	-31.9	-31.7	-28.5	-32.9	-30.7	-29.2	-30.6	-31.4	-30.1	-31.6	-31.3
1973	-30.1	-30.3	-32.9	-27.3	-31.1	-29.2	-25.6	-27.4	-25.6	-25.4	-26.3	-26.2	-24.2	-26.3	-25.9

Расчет коэффициентов и параметров пространственной модели

		Коэффициенты и параметры
Год	A1	A0	Sa	R
1950	0.635	-15.746	1.487	0.726
1951	1.019	-0.097	0.964	0.933
1952	1.707	19.277	0.979	0.974
1953	1.05	2.444	1.13	0.916
1954	0.606	-8.282	1.457	0.715
1955	0.374	-6.257	0.758	0.773
1956	0.696	-5.483	0.749	0.916
1957	0.605	-8.072	0.899	0.856
1958	0.926	1.16	1.144	0.894
1959	0.973	2.71	0.958	0.928

Построение и анализ графиков многолетних рядов коэффициентов и параметров пространственной модели.

Выводы:

-коэффициенты А1 и А0 стационарны;

- с конца 1980х годов наблюдается увеличение дисперсии в параметре SЕ, что может быть связано с возникновением неустойчивости в однородности поля.

Исходные данные Среднемесячная температура воздуха, С.-Петербург

257
26063	1743	9999	9999		9999		2.8		9999		9999		9999 9999					9999		0.9		-1	-5.9
26063	1744	-8.8	-8.8		-4.6	5.6		7.9		14.5		17.8		14.2		11.7		2.6		0.5		-5.3
26063	1745	-10.1	-9		-6.1	1.7		9999		9999		9999			9999		9999		9999			9999	9999
26063	1752	-11.1	-6.1		-1.3	3.8		10.3		14.4		20.9		17.9		10.1		5		1		-4
26063	1753	-9	-9.6	-1.1		3.3		10.3		14.4		17.5		16.2		11.9		6.7		0.1		-12.7
26063	1754	-9.6	-11.5		-3.7	6.6		10.5		16.5		17.8		14.4		9.9		5.7 -1.3 -4.5
26063	1755	-9.6	-11.6		-4.7	2.6		11.5		17.7		19.9		14.9			11	7.2		1.3		-8.2
26063	1756	-5.8	-2.6		-3.8	3.9		8.5		17		18.8		13.6		10.7		5.1		-2.1		-9.8
26063	1757	-11.8	-5		-3	6.1	10.5			19.1		23.2		18.1		13		0.3		0.1	-10.5
26063	1758	-15.7	-10		-4.8	1.4		8		14.7		18.3		14.7			9	9999		-1.7		-8
26063	1759	-5.4	-6.1		-3.4	1.2		6.7		16.2		17.4		19.1		10.8		2.9		-3.4		-14.3
26063	1760	-17.6	-7.3		-7.7	-1		8.7		14.2		16.3		15.3		11.3		1.8		-0.7		-8.4
26063	1761	-9.8	-8.2		-1.2	2.2		10		17.5		20.3		18.2		12.8		2		-1.2		-12.8
26063	1762	-4.1	-3.3		-4	3.8		8	16.1		16.6		15.1			8	0.2			1	-7.7
26063	1763	-10.1	-10.9		-8.9	1.5		9.5		13.6		20.5			16	9.7		2.1		9999		9999
26063	1764	9999	9999		9999		2.6		8.3		12.6		18.6		15.9		11.1		5.7		-1.2		-5
26063	1765	-7	-8.8	-1.2		4.3		8.6		13.1		18.6		16.5		10		4.6		0.1		-6
26063	1766	-12.5	-7.9		-2	4.4		10.1		14.7		18.2		15.9		11.6		5.5		1.4		-7
26063	1767	-14.1	-8		-1.1	-0.3		8.9		15.4		16		18.4		13.4		5.8		4.1		-6.4
26063	1768	-14.2	-12.8		-9	2.2		6.9		15.4		19		16		10.6		3.4		0.5		-0.7
26063	1769	-4.2	-7.2		-2.1	2.6		11.2		16.8		17.6		17.3		11		1.3		-4		-9.9
26063	1770	-8	-7.8	-10.4		6.6		9.5		13.6		14.8		15.5		12.6		8.1		0.2		-0.9
26063	1771	-8.1	-14	-10.2		-0.6		6.9		18		18		15.9		11.6		6.1		-2		-4.3
26063	1772	-12.5	-15.7		-7.9	2.7		7.1		13.1		17.9		17.4		11.2		8		4.2		-2.2
26063	1773	-13.8	-8.2		-3.2	6.6		12.7		15.7		19.6		18.3		12.5		7 -1.4 -3.3
26063	1774	-13.3	-5.6		-3.3	3.8		9999		19.7		21.9		16.8			10.5 4.1			-10 -7.4
26063	1775	-8.9	-6.4		-1.1	2.6		9.4		14.3		20.6		19.7		14.5		9.3		-2.5		-5.2
26063	1776	-16.6	-2.8		-2.9	1.6		11.2		17.1		20.2		17.3		10.2		5 -2.6 -2.7
26063	1777	-7.7	-9.5		-5.5	0.1		12.1		15.7		17.1		15.2		9.7		4.4		0.8		-2.3
26063	1778	-9.2	-5.2		-3.4	5.5		10.2		15.2		18.7		15.4		12.2		2.1		-3.9		-5.3
26063	1779	-9.8	-4.7		-0.6	4.1		12.1		15.1		17.7		18		12.7		6.3		-0.9		-8
26063	1780	-12.5	-9.9		-2.6	1		9.4		13.4		18.3		14.2		8.7		5 -2.1 -7.8
26063	1781	-10.4	-9.7		-5.2	1.6		6.4		13.3		15.8		17.6			13	4.7		1.8		-10.6
26063	1782	-7.6	-15.3		-7.1	0.1		7.7		13.6		14.6		15.1		9.8		4.5		-3.5		9999
26063	1783	-18.8	-7.5		-6.1	2.5		10.5		16.5		17.3		17.4		10.9		5.2		-6		-8.1
26063	1784	-8.8	-10.6		-9.4	3.6		5.3		12.9		18.7		18.7		8.1		3.5 -0.3 -6.8
26063	1785	-8.4	-10.8		-10.5	-0.6		5.9		12.8		16.1		16.4			8.8	2.5		-0.8		-9.8
26063	1786	-10	-10.4		-7.5	3.2		7.8		13.4		17.7		17.2		10.8		2.4		-9.6		-9.2
26063	1787	-9.2	-9.1		-3	1.4		12.6		17		17	15.1			9.3		6.5	-2.3			-10
26063	1788	-10.6	-9.1		-6.5	3.9		7.4		16.1		20.1		15.7		11.9		2.2		-2.6		-18.4
26063	1789	-12.2	-10.4		-10.1	1.9		9.9		15.8		20.9			18	11.7		2.2		0.3		-2.6
26063	1790	-8.5	-8.3		-3.7	-3.7		8.4		14		14.8		13.5		8.3		3.4	-2.4			-2.6
26063	1791	-2.7	-4.2		-3.4	3.2		6.2		15.5		16.4		14.7			9	3 -1.9 -4.3
26063	1792	-15.3	-11.6		-6.3	1.7		8.4		15.4		19.6		14.2		12.9		2.6		-2.5		-3.5
26063	1793	-11.5	-1.1		-3	3.4		9		15	19.2			16	8.6		5.2		0.9		-9.9
26063	1794	-3.1	-4.4		-1.5	3.7		11.5		15.3		16.9		15.1		9.7		6.6		-0.1		-7.2
26063	1795	-10.9	-9		-6.1	4		7.9		15.3		17.5		14.2		10.8		3.3		-0.2		-7.9
26063	1796	-5	-7.4	-6.6		1.6		9	17.1			19	16.9		8.5		4.6		-2.3		-10.4
26063	1797	-7.7	-1.7		-3.8	-0.1		7.5		16.8		16.8		15.2		13.5		6		-2.2		-3
26063	1798	-7.8	-7.9		-3.9	1.4		11.6		14.8		19.5		18.4		9.4		4.3		-1.7		-10.4
26063	1799	-9.6	-19.5		-7.5	2.8		7.3		16.3		18.6		15.5		10.8		5		1.7		-9.9
26063	1800	-11.3	-13.3		-10	2.3		7.9		14.3		15		15.1		8.2		5.4 -0.1 -2.7
26063	1805	-9	-11.8		-2.8	2.5		9.1		14.4		19.6		18.9		11.6		0.7 -4.9 -4.2
26063	1806	-6.6	-10.7		-5.7	1.7		10.1		12.2		15.2		18.6		13.5		3.7 -2.3 -2.4
26063	1807	-10.6	-2.9		-4	-0.2		6.1		14		16.2		17.6		10		3.4		0.3		-3.4