Text 8 the shape of things to come

Until the close of World War II active speculation about the technological features of the future was restricted in the main to the literature of science fiction. This literature was regarded until then as an exhilarating avenue of escape from the humdrum of the all-too-solid present. Undeterred by premonitions, the reader's imagination could soar freely through time and space. He might even smile at the naive reassurance provided by some of the tales of such pioneers of the genre as Jules Verne and H.G.Wells, in which contemporary society continued to move soporifically along its customary grooves undeflected by the cataclysmic discoveries of some scientific maniac. And what could be cosier than a Wellsian time machine that, following a fearsome trip into the far future, could be depended upon to return the author to the present in good time for tea around the parlour fire? It is this once-powerful sense of the here-and-now that has begun to recede since the War. Much that was only yesterday relegated airily to the realm of science fiction is now recognized as sober scientific fact. And there is virtually nothing in today's science fiction that is thought of as "impossible" tomorrow. The increasing pace of technological and social change in the post-war world is actively dissolving the familiar signposts of our civilization before our media-soaked eyes. Willingly or reluctantly we are impelled to give more and more of our attention to the shape of things to come.

Text 9 the young and the restless

Young people were among the hardest hit by the global recession, and youth unemployment will continue to be a risk factor for social and political instability worldwide, writes Jonathan Wood, of business risk consultancy Control Risks.

The Arab Spring, Europe's anti-cuts protests, the global Occupy movement, and the London riots of 2011 all raised questions about the links between youth unemployment and social unrest.

While the main driver of youth unemployment is economic weakness, government cuts have exacerbated the situation by reducing public sector workforces, cutting unemployment support and raising education costs.

The duration of youth unemployment has increased. In the UK, for example, the percentage of unemployed young people out of work for longer than one year has nearly doubled since late 2008. Even emerging markets, which weathered the crisis better and recovered faster, face significant challenges.

The Arab Spring, driven in part by demands for jobs, damaged tourism and business investment, hurting job prospects further. As a result of these trends, fears of a "lost generation" are mounting at the global and national levels.

Yet the slowing global economy offers a bleak outlook for youth unemployment over the medium-term.

Without stronger growth, it seems unlikely that the global economy can generate enough jobs to employ the estimated 100 million young people entering the labour force each year, let alone the tens of millions of ageing workers staying in work.